file:///C|/545/1995/index.htm Population-Environment Dynamics: Transitions in Global Change Table of Authors and Chapters: Introduction Abstracts 1. Richard W. Aishton 2. James M. Birkelund 3. Micah M. Cheatham 4. C. Maureen Cunningham 5. Andrea I. Frank 6. Ajay Gupta 7. Allenn Han 8. Michael Landweber 9. Elizabeth J. Lombard file:///C|/545/1995/index.htm (1 of 2) [6/18/2008 10:56:22 AM] file:///C|/545/1995/index.htm 10. Alice Nabalamba 11. Diane O'Connell 12. Erin N. Perry 13. Lynelle Preston 14. Karen Rowe; Model Web chapter--includes graphics 15. Marisa Sifontes 16. Gwo-Wei Torng 17. Richard Tracy Relationships Editors: Sandra L. Arlinghaus William D. Drake December, 1995 School of Natural Resources and Environment, SNRE 545 School of Public Health, EIH 575 University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 This page has been accessed times. file:///C|/545/1995/index.htm (2 of 2) [6/18/2008 10:56:22 AM] file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm PREFACE This monograph, is a compendium of the individual works of seventeen students enrolled in a newly cross-listed course NR 545 (EIH 575). The focus of this course, like prior years, is captured in its title Population-Environment Dynamics: Toward building a Theory. The course began with an examination of alternative theoretical constructs useful in studying the interaction between human populations and the environment. Also, at the beginning of the course, each participant was asked to select a topic of inquiry and a geographical setting for their study. This selection then became their major focus for the entire semester. Students participating formally in the course this fall had a delightful mixture of backgrounds and interests. Schools and colleges represented included the School of Natural Resources and Environment, School of Public Health, School of Business Administration, College of Engineering, College of Architecture and Urban Planning, and College of Literature Sciences and Arts. One undergraduate, fourteen masters and four Ph D students participated formally. Others sat in from time to time, including participants from previous years seminars. Disciplines represented included biology, economics, sociology, architecture, anthropology, mathematics, law, engineering, urban planning, public file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm (1 of 15) [6/18/2008 10:56:25 AM] file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm health, forestry and natural resources. Participants included colleagues from the Continents of North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. In addition, several U. S. students had spent considerable time living and working in countries such as Russia, Benin, Costa Rica, India, Thailand and Nepal. A very important element in the seminar was the use of data sources which recently have become available in machine-readable form. These data sources permitted the students to quickly gain exposure in handling longitudinal datasets, especially those which were not amenable to modeling with linear functions. As a consequence, part of the course required mastery of non-linear curve fitting techniques. The most useful and user friendly dataset provided participants was The World Resources Institute Data System (1994-95). Another tool used in the course was state-of-the-art PC-based Geographic Information Systems. The GIS package selected as most helpful, was ATLAS GIS version 3.0. The digital maps, used as separators of monograph chapters, help to unify monograph content as they depict, taken together, a spatial view of population-environment dynamics. New to this term was the availability of the Digital Chart of the World. Dr. Sandra Lach Arlinghaus, adjunct professor in The School of Natural Resources and Environment, provided instruction in curve fitting, GIS and ongoing individualized support to all participants. A new feature of this terms course was the use of outside reviewers. These reviewers, all faculty in major teaching institutions, provided an file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm (2 of 15) [6/18/2008 10:56:25 AM] file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm additional level of academic feedback to participants. Papers included in this monograph had completed this review process by the time of publication. Remaining papers will be published at a later date. The success of the course resulted largely from the enthusiasm of the participants. As in previous years, extra sessions were held near the end of the semester, which often extended beyond scheduled meeting times. Feedback from fellow participants was provided in these sessions. In addition, each student was asked to develop a brief synopsis of how their study related to the other participants in the class. These thoughtful remarks are presented as the main body of the concluding chapter. This monograph was published during the winter term in the academic year 1995-96. William D. Drake University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan ` February 1996 INTRODUCTION This volume is a collection of separate but related studies focusing on file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm (3 of 15) [6/18/2008 10:56:25 AM] file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm the relationship between human populations and the environment. The effort consists of this introduction followed by seventeen chapters each written by a seminar participant which investigates a different aspect and geographic setting of the population-environment dynamic. A concluding chapter provides comments written by each participant relating their work to those of the others. In this introduction we present a synopsis of the common framework, which we call a family of transitions. In addition to the common framework, this introductory chapter presents the abstracts for each ensuing chapter. Readers of the monograph reporting last year's work should note that the material in the following section on a family of transitions is repeated here for background and therefore can be skipped. 1. A FAMILY OF TRANSITIONS One way of viewing the complex dynamic relationships between population and the environment is to visualize them as a family of transitions. That is, not only is there a demographic and epidemiologic transition but also a deforestation, toxicity, agricultural, energy and urbanization transition as well as many others. In this chapter it is argued that for each transition there is a critical period when society is especially vulnerable. During that period, rates of change are high, societal adaptive capacity is limited, in part, due to this rapid change, and there is a greater likelihood that key relationships in the dynamic file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm (4 of 15) [6/18/2008 10:56:25 AM] file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm become severely imbalanced. The trajectory society takes through a transition varies, depending upon many factors operating at local and national levels. Transitions not only are occurring in many different sectors but also at different scales, both temporal and spatial. At times, a society experiences several transitions simultaneously, which can raise social vulnerability because of how they amplify each other. 1.1 TYPES OF TRANSITIONS The Demographic Transition Let us begin with a review of the ideas behind the widely accepted demographic transition. At the onset of this transition, births and deaths are both high and are in relative equilibrium with each other. Historically, births exceed deaths by small amounts so total population rises only very gradually. Occasionally, famine or an epidemic causes a downturn in total population but in general, changes in rates are low. During the transition, however, death rates drop dramatically, usually due to a change in the health condition of the population. This change in health is caused by many, often interrelating factors. After some time lag, the birth rate begins to drop and generally declines until it is in approximate balance with the death rate again. The Epidemiological Transition The term epidemiologic transition was coined to describe the changing source of mortality and morbidity from infectious diseases occurring file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm (5 of 15) [6/18/2008 10:56:25 AM] file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm primarily in the younger age groups to degenerative diseases in older age groups. As with the demographic transition, there is considerable volatility during the transition. At the onset, infectious diseases begin their decline usually due to extensions of health care and sanitation by the national or local government. Single vector programs such as malaria control and immunization programs are often the first implemented because they are capable of ready extension and do not require as heavy a commitment to education and other sustained infrastructure - especially in rural areas. These single vector programs are then followed by broader-based health care which demand heavier investment in infrastructure. But an entirely successful move through this transition does not always happen. At times, other sectors in transition overpower the health care delivery system. The Agricultural Transition For several hundred years, worldwide agricultural production has been rising in relative harmony with population. Overall, increases in production have kept up with and even outpaced growth in population. The two factors that have been responsible for these increases are 1) extensions of land under cultivation and 2) improvements in productivity. At times changes have been dramatic. Formulating an agricultural transition reflects the condition that, in general, sources of increase in production shift from extending land to intensifying file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm (6 of 15) [6/18/2008 10:56:25 AM] file:///C|/545/1995/introduc.htm production on land already under cultivation. The Forestry Transition At the onset of the forestry transition generally a large percentage of a region is under forest cover. Rapid deforestation occurs during the transition and finally forest cover stabilizes at a lower level determined by many factors such as the local region's needs, the state of the local and national economy, climate and soil characteristics. In most settings this transition will end in a steady state equilibrium balancing growth and harvest.