Technical Paper 1 Traffic report 1 WestConnex Updated Strategic Business Case Contents List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 List of Figures .................................................................................................................................................... 4 Preface .............................................................................................................................................................. 6 Terminology ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 1 Executive summary .................................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Background to this report ................................................................................................................... 8 1.2 Traffic methodology ........................................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Road network performance without WestConnex ........................................................................... 10 1.4 Traffic effects of WestConnex.......................................................................................................... 12 1.5 Traffic operations and influence on WestConnex design ................................................................ 18 1.6 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 19 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 21 2.1 The purpose of this report ................................................................................................................ 21 2.2 Land use basis and base traffic growth (2014 to 2031) .................................................................. 21 2.2 Description of WestConnex ............................................................................................................. 22 2.3 WestConnex traffic objectives ......................................................................................................... 23 3 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 24 3.1 Broad approach to traffic modelling and assessment ..................................................................... 24 3.2 Traffic models .................................................................................................................................. 24 3.3 Key assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 26 3.4 Traffic scenarios modelled ............................................................................................................... 26 3.5 Treatment of induced traffic ............................................................................................................. 26 4 Existing and future network performance without WestConnex .............................................................. 27 4.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 27 4.2 The 2012 network performance ....................................................................................................... 27 4.3 Future 2031 network performance without WestConnex ................................................................ 37 5 WestConnex traffic effects ....................................................................................................................... 50 5.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 50 5.2 Network performance ...................................................................................................................... 50 5.3 Induced traffic .................................................................................................................................. 64 5.4 The effects of the Rozelle off-ramps ................................................................................................ 66 5.5 Network productivity from WestConnex .......................................................................................... 68 5.6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 69 1 WestConnex Updated Strategic Business Case 6 Traffic operations and influence on WestConnex .................................................................................... 70 6.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 70 6.2 WestConnex sub-regions ................................................................................................................ 71 6.3 WestConnex traffic operations......................................................................................................... 72 6.4 WestConnex surface access operations ......................................................................................... 73 6.5 Measures to manage future traffic beyond 2031 ............................................................................. 77 6.6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 77 7 Traffic effects of the Western Harbour Tunnel on WestConnex .............................................................. 78 7.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 78 7.2 Network performance ...................................................................................................................... 78 7.3 Traffic operations influence on project ............................................................................................. 81 7.4 Measures to manage future traffic beyond 2031 ............................................................................. 82 7.5 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 82 2 WestConnex Updated Strategic Business Case List of Tables Table 1-1 Modelled Average Weekday Traffic (AWT) volumes on the Network without WestConnex (2031) 11 Table 1-2 Forecast Average Weekday volumes on the WestConnex in 2031 ................................................ 13 Table 1-3 VKT and VHT results of Motorway versus Surface Roads (rounded to the nearest thousands) .... 17 Table 4-1 Average Weekday Traffic (AWT) and peak (AM and PM) traffic volumes within the WestConnex Project Area Network (2012) ........................................................................................................................... 30 Table 4-2 Volume to Capacity ratio (V/C) estimates for selected Links (AM and PM peak hours, 2012) ....... 34 Table 4-3 Average speeds on selected roads on the WestConnex project area network (2012) ................... 36 Table 4-4 Increase in average weekday traffic volumes on roads most affected by congestion (total two-way) ......................................................................................................................................................................... 42 Table 4-5 Average weekday and peak hour (morning and afternoon) traffic volumes: ‘do minimum’ (2031) . 43 Table 4-6 Modelled average peak hour speeds on selected roads in 2012 and 2031 ................................... 46 Table 4-7 Volume to capacity ratio comparison on selected roads between existing 2012 and ‘do minimum’ 2031 ................................................................................................................................................................. 48 Table 5-1 Forecast average weekday traffic volumes in the mainline tunnels and ramps in 2031 ................. 51 Table 5-2 Change in morning peak and two-way average weekday traffic volumes on selected WestConnex project area network roads, 2031 .................................................................................................................... 52 Table 5-3 Change in average weekday heavy vehicle volumes on the WestConnex project area network ... 55 Table 5-4 Average speeds and volume to capacity ratios for selected links, 2031 morning peak ................. 58 Table 5-5 Induced trips on the 2031 surface road network, average weekday traffic ..................................... 65 Table 5-6 Induced trips on 2031 WestConnex tunnels and ramps. ................................................................ 65 Table 5-7 Change in Average Weekday traffic volumes on selected roads as a result of with and without the Rozelle off-ramps ............................................................................................................................................. 67 Table 5-8 Vehicle