K E V I N M . W O O D S , WOODS, MURRAY, MURRAY, WOODS, WILLIAMSON MURRAY, a n d T H O M A S H O L A D A Y with MOUNIR ELKHAMRI and H O L aday About the Authors NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY President: LtGen Frances C. Wilson, USMC Kevin M. Woods is a member of the research staff at the Institute for Vice President: Ambassador Richard A. Roth Defense Analyses (IDA) and since 2003 has been the task leader of the Iraqi Perspectives Project. Recent publications include The Iraqi Perspectives Report: Saddam’s Senior Leadership on Operation Iraqi INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES Freedom, and The Mother of all Battles: Saddam Hussein’s Strategic Director: Dr. Patrick M. Cronin Plan for the Persian Gulf War. Research Director: Dr. James A. Schear Williamson Murray is professor emeritus at The Ohio State University and senior fellow at IDA. He is the author of numerous books and arti- NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY PRESS cles. His recent works include The Iraq War: A Military History, The Past Director and Editor, JFQ: Col David H. Gurney, USMC (Ret.) is Prologue (ed.), and A War To Be Won: Fighting the Second World War. Executive Editor: Dr. Jeffrey D. Smotherman Thomas Holaday has a degree in Philosophy and a minor in Arabic from Managing Editor, NDU Press: LTC Robert E. Henstrand, USA Georgetown University. Since joining IDA, he has researched the military- strategic history of Iraq while working on the Iraqi Perspectives Project. Mounir Elkhamri is a Middle East military analyst and linguist for the U.S. Army Foreign Military Studies Office. His articles include “Dealing with the Iraqi populace: an Arab-American soldier’s perspec- tive” (Military Review ) and “Iran’s Contribution to the Civil War in Iraq” (Jamestown Foundation). Laila Sabara is senior linguist for both the Terrorism Perspectives Project and the Iraqi Perspectives Project at IDA. 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Woods, Williamson Murray, and Thomas Holaday with Mounir Elkhamri INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY WASHINGTON, D.C. 2009 The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. This pub- lication is cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Except for the maps on pages 47, 51, 52, and 68, portions of this work may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. This work was conducted under contract DASW01-04-C-003, Task ET-8-2579 for the National Intelligence Council. 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Contents Foreword . ix Preface. xi Introduction . xiii Summary and Analysis . 1 General Comments . 1 The Arab-Israeli Wars and the Rise of the Ba’ath Party . 2 Between the 1973 War and the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) . 3 The Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) . 5 Thoughts on the Iran-Iraq “Cold-War” in the 1990s . 17 Comments on Saddam Hussein as Political and Military Leader . 17 iii The Interviews. 19 Discussion One . 19 Arab-Israeli Wars of 1967 and 1973 • Military Transition under Ba’athist Rule Discussion Two . 26 Iraqi Military and Political Transition through the 1970s • Prologue to Iran- Iraq War • Transition of Iranian Leadership and Military • Decision to Invade • Saddam’s Aspirations • Earliest Phase of the War • Political and Professional Soldiers • Disorganized Command and Control of Iranian Operations Discussion Three . 34 Early Use of Air Power • SIGINT [Signals Intelligence] • Winter 1980–1981 Iraqi Command Changes • Saddam’s Response to Failure and Executions • 1980–1982 Losses and Army Expansions • Developments of Iranian and Iraqi Forces Discussion Four . 40 Saddam’s Psychology and Personality Development • January 1981 Armor Battle • Iranian Human Wave Tactics and Iraqi Minefields • Khomeini’s Spiri- tual Influence • Battles of Abadan and Khorramshahr • Loss of Special Forces • End of Initial Iraqi Offensives in May 1981 Discussion Five . 49 1981–1982 Turbulence in Tehran • Iranian Infiltration Tactics • 1982 Attacks around Basra • 1984–1988 Marsh Infiltrations and Iraqi Engineering Efforts • International Support to Iran • Chemical Weapons Usage • Iranian Re- sponse to Weapons of Mass Destruction • Postwar Preparations with WMD • 1982–1983 Reorganization and Recruiting for Republican Guard • Psycho- logical Support of Saddam to Troops • Postwar Republican Guard Reorgani- zation Discussion Six . 62 Summer 1983 Iranian Offensive into Haj Umran • Northern Mountain Opera- tions and Kurdish Support • A 1,000-kilometer Front • Threats to the Dams and Baghdad • Unpredictable Iranian Strategy and Tactics • February 1984 Iraqi 6th Armored Division Losses • Iranian Marsh Operations • Intelligence Development and Satellite Support in March 1985 iv Discussion Seven . 70 1986 Al-Fao Campaign and Baghdad’s Misinterpretation of Iranian Strategy • Traitors in the Iraqi Leadership • Prisoners of War • Operation Dawn • Iraqi Casualty Competition and the “Bedouin Mentality” Discussion Eight. 77 Republican Guard Expansion and the Response to Al-Fao • Hussein Kamel • General Hamdani’s Command Obstacles • 1987 Iranian Attack on Basra and Casualty Inflation • Shalamjah: The Somme of the Iran-Iraq War • Hamdani’s Venture through the Front and the Battlefield Conditions Discussion Nine . 83 July 1987 Republican Guard Command Changes • Battlefield Missiles • Hal- abjah • Factors of Post-1987 Shift in “Correlation of Forces” toward Iraq— Planning Effort for Al-Fao Offensive • Use of Helicopters • Front of 1988 • July 1988 Iraqi Incursion through to Ahvaz and the Mujahideen-e-Khalq Discussion Ten . 90 Foundations of the Iraqi Military and Saddam’s Detrimental Influence • Ham- dani’s Effort to Improve Iraqi Military Culture • Questioning Military Orders and Planning • Lessons Learned from the Iran-Iraq War • Fight to Follow the War and Saddam’s Perception of Victory and Warfare Discussion Eleven . 95 Stories of War Heroes, 1973 to Operation Iraqi Freedom • Saddam’s Misunder- standing of Warfare • Hamdani’s Recognition of U.S.