Monterey-Salinas Transit System Wide Fleet Analysis Study A Project Completed for MST by CALSTART WAVE White Par Series June 2017 Contents Sections Glossary of Terms ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 7 Introduction – The Potential for Electric Buses ..................................................................................... 9 MST in 2016: By the Numbers ................................................................................................................. 11 Fleet Characteristics ........................................................................................................................... 11 Vehicle OEM ....................................................................................................................................... 11 Vehicle Length ................................................................................................................................... 11 Vehicle Propulsion Type ................................................................................................................... 12 Vehicle Operating Costs ................................................................................................................... 12 MST vs. Nation .................................................................................................................................. 13 Existing Fleet Emissions Inventory: Criteria Air Pollutants ...................................................... 14 Fleet Age: Achieving Emissions Reductions through Attrition ................................................. 16 Existing Fleet Emissions Inventory: Greenhouse Gases ............................................................. 18 MST Duty Cycles ............................................................................................................................... 19 MST History with Electric Vehicles ................................................................................................ 20 Available Vehicle Comparisons ............................................................................................................. 22 Available Electric Transit Buses ...................................................................................................... 22 Available Diesel Hybrid Transit Buses .......................................................................................... 25 Available BEV Charging Options ................................................................................................... 25 Bus Emissions Comparisons ............................................................................................................ 27 Bus Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Comparisons ...................................................................... 31 Electricity Cost for BEV Bus Operation .......................................................................................... 35 Electric Bus Projected Range ............................................................................................................ 36 Vehicle Financing and Incentives .......................................................................................................... 39 Incentive Funding for Alternative Vehicles .................................................................................. 39 Battery Leasing vs. Ownership ........................................................................................................ 40 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................................... 44 Next Steps for Implementing Zero‐Emission Vehicles ............................................................... 44 Depot Charging Infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 45 Guidance on Beneficial Electrical Rate Structures with Local Utilities ................................... 45 Purchasing vs. Leasing Bus Batteries .............................................................................................. 46 Viability of Expansion of Use of En‐Route Charging Technology ........................................... 47 Phasing Plan ........................................................................................................................................ 48 Ideas and Concepts for Future Projects .......................................................................................... 51 Sources ......................................................................................................................................................... 53 About the Authors ..................................................................................................................................... 56 Appendix A: Complete MST Transit Vehicle Air Emissions Inventory ......................................... 57 Appendix B: Complete MST (owned & operated) Transit Vehicle Daily Duty Cycle List, Sorted by Mileage...................................................................................................................................... 58 Page | 2 Figures Figure 1: MST’s bus fleet by OEM ........................................................................................................... 11 Figure 2: MST’s bus fleet by length ......................................................................................................... 11 Figure 3: MST’s vehicle fleet by propulsion ........................................................................................... 12 Figure 4: MST owned‐vehicle operating costs per vehicle type ($/mile) ........................................... 12 Figures 5 and 6: U.S. and MST public transit buses by propulsion type ........................................... 14 Figure 7: Estimated MST 2015‐2016 fiscal year transit vehicle air emissions (lbs.) .......................... 16 Figure 8: Decline of public transit diesel bus emissions over time by model year ........................... 17 Figure 9: Comparison of model years for U.S. and MST public transit buses .................................. 17 Figure 10: MST average annual vehicle mileage by model year grouping ....................................... 18 Figure 11: Average annual MST vehicle GHG emissions (metric tons) ............................................. 19 Figure 12: MST weekday daily duty cycle lengths by vehicle type .................................................... 20 Figure 13: Available BEV bus options in 2017 ....................................................................................... 23 Figure 14: Bus pricing and classification according to Washington State Department of Enterprise Services Master Contract, 2015 ........................................................................................................ 24 Figure 15: Available diesel‐electric hybrid bus options in 2017 .......................................................... 25 Figure 16: Various OEM Depot Chargers .............................................................................................. 26 Figure 17: California electric grid generation by source ...................................................................... 27 Figure 18: United States electric grid consumption by source ............................................................ 27 Figure 19: Complete California annual air shed emissions comparison for 2002 diesel, 2007 diesel, 2017 diesel, 2017 biodiesel (B20), 2017 biodiesel (B100), 2017 diesel‐electric hybrid, & 2017 BEV buses ........................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 20: Mobile‐source annual emissions comparison for 2002 diesel, 2007 diesel, 2017 diesel, 2017 biodiesel (B20), 2017 biodiesel (B100), 2017 diesel‐electric hybrid, & 2017 BEV buses ... 30 Figure 21: Fuel price volatility in the U.S. represented by total % price change 2000 ‐ 2016 .......... 32 Figure 22: Assumptions for TCO comparison between diesel, hybrid, and BEV 40‐foot transit buses .................................................................................................................................................... 33 Figure 23: TCO 12‐year service life comparison between electric, diesel, and hybrid buses .......... 34 Figure 24: The potential impact of demand charges on per mile fuel expenses ............................... 36 Figure 25: Expected daily driving range for currently available 40‐foot BEV transit buses ........... 37 Figure 26: HVIP’s vehicle eligibility list ................................................................................................. 39 Figure 27: LCFS credit revenue from electricity 2016‐2020 at a credit price of $100/MT ................. 40 Figure 28: Battery lease‐buy analysis ...................................................................................................... 43 Page | 3 Section 1 Glossary of Terms Advanced Clean Transit (ACT) Regulation: A proposed regulation by CARB that seeks to transition all California public transit fleets to Zero‐Emissions Bus (ZEB) technology by 2040. Altoona: The Altoona Bus Research and Testing Center was