July 2018 Key Actor Interests in the Asia Pacific ® A Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) Report Produced in support of the Deeper Analyses Clarifying Insights Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Office Better Decisions (Joint Staff, J39) www.NSIteam.com Key Actor Interests in the Asia Pacific 2 Authors Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois Weston Aviles Dr. Belinda Bragg Dr. Larry Kuznar Nicole Peterson George Popp Dr. John A. Stevenson Please direct inquiries to George Popp at [email protected] What is ViTTa®? NSI’s Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) provides rapid response to critical information needs by pulsing a global network of subject matter experts (SMEs) to generate a wide range of expert insight. For this Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Strategic Outcomes on the Korean Peninsula project, ViTTa was used to address eight key questions provided by the Joint Staff project sponsors. The ViTTa team received written response submissions from 50 subject matter experts from academia, government, military, and industry. Each Korea Strategic Outcomes ViTTa report presents 1) a summary overview of the expert contributor response to the ViTTa question of focus and 2) the full corpus of expert contributor responses received for the ViTTa question of focus. Biographies for all expert contributors are also included in each report. RESEARCH ▪ INNOVATIONNSI ▪ EXCELLENCE Key Actor Interests in the Asia Pacific 3 Table of Contents ViTTa Question ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Subject Matter Expert Contributors ........................................................................................................................ 4 Summary Response ....................................................................................................................................................... 4 Australia ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5 References ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 China ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 10 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Indonesia .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Japan ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 Malaysia ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 North Korea ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 North Korea (As Presented in Kim Jong Un’s Public Discourse) .......................................................................................................................................... 35 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38 Philippines ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 39 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41 Russia .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 46 South Korea ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 50 United States ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 52 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 57 Subject Matter Expert Response Submissions ................................................................................................... 59 Dr. Stephen Blank.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59 Dr. Richard Cronin .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 60 Dr. Rod Lyon ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 61 Shihoko Goto ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 62 Anthony Rinna ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63 Dr. Sheila Smith........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 65 Yun Sun ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 Kelly Wadsworth ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 Subject Matter Expert Biographies ........................................................................................................................ 68 Dr. Stephen Blank.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68 Dr. Richard Cronin 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