On The Danger of Artificial Intelligence Saba Samiei A thesis submitted to Auckland University of Technology in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Computing and Information Sciences (MCIS) July 2019 School of Engineering, Computer and Mathematical Sciences 1 | P a g e Abstract In 2017, the world economic forum announced that AI would increase the global economy by USD 16 trillion by 2030 (World Economic Forum, 2017). Yet, at the same time, some of the world’s most influential leaders warned us about the danger of AI. Is AI good or bad? Of utmost importance, is AI an existential threat to humanity? This thesis examines the latter question by breaking it down into three sub-questions, is the danger real?, is the defence adequate?, and how a doomsday scenario could happen?, and critically reviewing the literature in search for an answer. If true, and sadly it is, I conclude that AI is an existential threat to humanity. The arguments are as follows. The current rapid developments of robots, the success of machine learning, and the emergence of highly profitable AI companies will guarantee the rise of the machines among us. Sadly, among them are machines that are destructive, and the danger becomes real. A review of current ideas preventing such a doomsday event is, however, shown to be inadequate and a futuristic look at how doomsday could emerge is, unfortunately, promising! Keywords: AI, artificial intelligence, ethics, the danger of AI. 2 | P a g e Acknowledgements No work of art, science, anything in between or beyond is possible without the help of those currently around us and those who have previously laid the foundation of success for us. I hence believe that no such work should be published without acknowledging people who have played a key role in enabling the creators. As such, I would like to take this opportunity and show my gratitude to those without whom this research would not have been possible. I want to thank my supervisor Dr Albert Yeap, for his continuous support and guidance. Thank you for always encouraging me to break the boundaries, think outside the box and write with confidence. Your support in showing me the right path, asking me questions and leading me to ask more questions has had a tremendous impact on the viewpoint I have developed as part of this research. I want to thank my mother, Frough Samiei, for always encouraging me to continue learning. You are the most exceptional mentor and the best friend I have in life. Thank you for teaching me patience, consistency and self-belief by being a fantastic role model to look up to. Your words, wisdom and insightful guidance have always helped shine a light on any path I have chosen to follow. This is a gift to you, and I hope to have made you proud. I want to thank Dawie Olivier, Mike Burk and Craig Young for the time they spent to read my thesis and share their insights to strengthen my research. Your invaluable feedback has helped me improve my work and build my viewpoint confidently. I also would like to thank Liz Gosling and once again, Mike Burk for their mentorship throughout my journey. Your guidance and advice of discipline and patience have contributed tremendously in my ability to bring this piece of work to an end. I hope to have made you all proud. Lastly, I would like to thank all the readers of this thesis and mention that when I started my masters, researching the future of AI, I knew there would be tears. However, I thought those tears would be for all the late-night studies and the fear of missing deadlines, not even once I thought the tears would be as a result of searching the history of human intelligence! Writing this thesis has led me to acquire the tenacity and the desire to do my part in changing the future. I wish, sincerely, that one day, you as a reader of this thesis can hold 3 | P a g e your head up and say that you read the words of someone who contributed to changing the world. 4 | P a g e Contents Attestation of authorship ............................................................................................................... 1 Thesis structure and research methodology .................................................................................. 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 1: Is the danger real? ....................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Robotics .............................................................................................................................. 7 1.1.1. The need-based era...................................................................................................... 7 1.1.2 The curiosity era........................................................................................................... 9 1.2. Machine learning ............................................................................................................. 13 1.2.1. The benign discovery era .......................................................................................... 13 1.2.2. The impactful era of strategising .............................................................................. 18 1.2.3. When we are no longer in charge .............................................................................. 19 1.3. How various industries have reacted to artificial intelligence ......................................... 21 1.3.1. Investments ............................................................................................................... 21 1.3.2. Reactions ................................................................................................................... 23 1.4. Conclusion of chapter 1 ................................................................................................... 25 Chapter 2: Is the defence adequate? ............................................................................................ 27 2.1. What has been previously proposed to address the danger to date? ................................ 28 2.1.1. Self-monitoring AI .................................................................................................... 28 2.1.2. Friendly AI ................................................................................................................ 29 2.1.3. Introducing punishment ............................................................................................ 31 2.1.4. Legalisation ............................................................................................................... 32 2.1.5. Other approaches....................................................................................................... 33 2.2. Are we doing enough to make sure AI is safe? ............................................................... 34 2.2.1. How to know how much attention needs to be paid to AI ethics, regulation and health and safety? ................................................................................................................ 35 2.2.2. Are popular forums involved? .................................................................................. 45 2.3. Conclusion of chapter 2 ................................................................................................... 47 Chapter 3: On the road to annihilation ........................................................................................ 49 3.1 The event horizon of technological singularity – our transition ....................................... 50 3.1.1. The first phase of our transition, AI trust and dependency ....................................... 50 3.1.2. The second phase of our transition, robotic body parts and body bots ..................... 52 3.1.3. The third phase of our transition, cyborgs ................................................................ 54 3.1.4. The fourth phase of our transition, cloud-based brain .............................................. 56 3.1.5. The fifth phase of our transition, cloud-based consciousness ................................... 57 3.2. Scenario 1- A doomsday with unconscious and soulless machines ................................. 58 5 | P a g e 3.2.1. The bright side of humans living alongside super intelligent AI .............................. 58 3.2.2 How we will allow the machines to kill us ................................................................ 62 3.3 Scenario 2- Why can doomsday still happen with replicated human consciousness? ...... 63 3.3.1 What we can achieve if AI is the next evolution of humans ...................................... 64 3.3.2 The dark side of the ultimate singularity.................................................................... 68 Thesis summary and conclusion ................................................................................................. 71 Future work ................................................................................................................................. 74 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................... 76 6 | P a g e Attestation of authorship I, Saba Samiei, hereby declare that this submission is my own work and that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, it contains no material previously published or written by another person (except where explicitly defined in the acknowledgements),