Project Number: ##-###-#### HUMAN INTERACTIONS AND DECISION-MAKING IN RECREATIONAL AVALANCHE ENVIRONMENTS An Interactive Qualifying Project Report submitted to the Faculty of the WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science by __________________________ Madeline N. Sola ___________________________ Thomas C. Reese ___________________________ Katarzyna J. Kulbacka Date: December 12, 2002 Approved: _________________________ Professor Gregory Theyel, Major Advisor 1. decision-making 2. avalanche terrain _________________________ 3. recreation Dean Paul W. Davis, Co-Advisor Table of Contents INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 3 RESEARCH CONTEXT ................................................................................................. 3 METHODS ........................................................................................................................ 8 Avalanche Database Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 8 Expert Interviews ......................................................................................................................................... 8 Participant Interviews .................................................................................................................................. 9 RESULTS AND ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 9 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS .................................................................... 23 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 25 APPENDICES ................................................................................................................. 28 2 Abstract – The primary cause of human-triggered avalanches has been found to be error in human judgment. Very little research has been done to investigate the influence of group interactions on the decision-making processes of alpine recreationists. In addition to analysis of an avalanche database, we interviewed Swiss ski tourists to understand group dynamics among recreationists in avalanche settings. After analysis of the interview data, we identified four themes that shape human interactions in recreational avalanche environments; the experience level of participants, the relationships between the participants, the leadership styles groups adopt, and the role gender plays in decision-making. Acknowledgements – We would like to thank the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) for use of their avalanche database. We would also like to thank the interviewees of this study for sharing their knowledge and time. Introduction In the past 16 years, more than 2,000 people have been killed by avalanches worldwide (Colorado Avalanche Information Center, 2002). An area of research that may help reduce the number of avalanche deaths that has not been thoroughly studied is the decision-making processes of individuals recreating in alpine environments. This article presents research that sheds light on the characteristics of avalanche victims in Switzerland and the nature of decision- making of people who participate in alpine recreation in Switzerland. We began this study by analyzing records of avalanche deaths in Switzerland over a 30- year period. Based in this analysis and a review of relevant literature, we developed interview questions that we asked Swiss alpine recreationists. After analyzing their responses, we identified four significant aspects that shape human interactions during recreation in avalanche environments. These aspects are the experience level of the participants, the relationships between the participants, the leadership models groups adopt, and the role gender plays in decision-making. The following are general findings for each of these aspects: Experience Level – Experience and ability in one‟s sports does not equate to avalanche knowledge and safety. Relationships between Participants – Relationships between participants affect communication and trust which influence risk-taking. Leadership – The leader of a group is determined by its characteristics. Gender – Women may be less likely to die in avalanches when participating in recreational alpine activities because they tend to take less risk. The paper begins with a review of existing research on causes of avalanches, including human causes, risk-taking in recreation, group decision-making among people participating in recreational activities, and how gender affects participation in recreational activities. Second, we describe our methods that include analysis of an avalanche database maintained by the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) and extensive interviews with Swiss participants in alpine recreation. Next, we present our findings from our analysis of the avalanche database and interviews, and we close with a discussion of the implications of our findings on avalanche safety. Research Context 3 There are approximately 25 people killed yearly by avalanches in the Swiss Alps (SAFEL/SFSO, 1997). An avalanche occurs when the stress (from gravity) trying to pull the snow downhill exceeds the strength (from bonds between snow grains) of the snow cover. There are four ingredients of an avalanche: a steep slope, a snow cover, a weak layer in the snow cover, and a trigger. Many studies have shown that the trigger is very often a human. Prior research has shown that nine out of ten avalanche victims (or someone in their group) initiate their own avalanche (Atkins, 2000; McCammon, 2000; Logan & Atkins, 1996). Between October 1984 and September 1996, 83% of Canada‟s fatal avalanches were triggered by a recreationist (Canadian Avalanche Association, 1996). The majority of avalanche victims are skiers, backcountry snowboarders, and snowmobilers who find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time, and then make the wrong decision (Behan, 1998). The following sections describe risk recreation, risk-taking, and decision-making in risk recreation. Risk Recreation Over the years, avalanches have been dramatically reduced within controlled ski areas. However, backcountry regions have seen no change in the frequency of slides. This is partly because backcountry areas are not managed at all. For this study, it is important to understand why some recreationists choose to expose themselves to greater avalanche danger by skiing in the backcountry, and how this risk affects their decisions. Education and training create both positive and negative effects when applied to avalanche prevention. Hazard evaluation and route finding are very important skills; however, Burtscher and Nachbauer (1999) have found that members of alpine associations are twice as likely to die in avalanches as non-members. They attribute this to two factors: a higher frequency of participation and the fact that members are more educated in avalanche safety. It is believed that alpinists, who are aware of avalanche risk, do not avoid high-risk areas, using their knowledge as an invisible security blanket. Researchers have tried to understand the appeal of risk recreation (Robinson, 1992; McIntyre, 1992; McFarlane & Boxall, 1998). Robinson (1992) has defined risk recreation as “…an endeavor, in which achievement usually occurs in a private rather than a public setting and involves physical danger with no discernible extrinsic rewards.” McIntyre (1992) found that as involvement increases, a participant goes through stages of development. A beginner is stimulated by a perceived risk, whereas the expert, through an increase in participation and skill, prefers recreational surroundings characterized by real risk. This greatly affects the chosen setting. Experience leads to specialization and a change in attitude and social affiliations within the sport (McFarlane & Boxall, 1998). More experienced users associate themselves with other specialists, and prefer more natural settings and conditions with less managerial intervention. As a skier, climber, etc., becomes an expert, some develop a strong desire to participate in a natural environment as opposed to a commercialized area. Little (2002) studied women who participate in adventure recreation. Through her research and interviews with participants, she saw a recurrence of limiting factors for female participation. The most common constraints for the women studied were a lower self-esteem, a lack of confidence in personal skill, and an overall disbelief that women are suitable for higher- risk activities. Little believes that these constraints are a result of expected gender roles. She found that nearly all of her subjects had, at one point in time, “reconstructed their definition of 4 adventure to incorporate less physically or environmentally reliant leisure” (Little, 2002). These constraints can be used to explain Goulet‟s (2000) findings in his study of risk in alpine skiing. Through observation and a questionnaire, he categorized three different groups of skiers; uninjured, injured, and risk-taking. He divided each of these groups by gender and found that women were under-represented in the risk-taking group (29.4%), and over-represented in the injured group (56.3%). Psychology of Risk-Taking Research has shown that there are many motivations for risk-taking.