NÜFUSBİLİM DERGİSİ / TURKISH JOURNAL OF POPULATION STUDIES 2015-2016 37-38: 79-99 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY: LANDING ON TO CIVILIZATION ONCE UPON A TIME TÜRKİYE’DE DEMOGRAFİK DÖNÜŞÜM: UYGARLIĞA VARIŞ BIR ZAMANLAR… AYKUT TOROS* SUMMARY This is an article written originally for the opening panel of the 4th Turkish Conference on Demography. Having been asked to talk about the highlights of demography, and of Turkish demography in general, I prepared a speech including a short summary of my memories; a commentary on the phenomenon of Demographic Transition and its dynamics; a discussion the stages of the demographic transition in Turkey and elaboration on some popular concepts in demography. The article below touches upon many demographic issues and aims to promote discussion among Turkish demographers. KEYWORDS: Demographic transition theory, Turkey, fertility, aging, population momentum INTRODUCTION Births high in February, low in November; conception high in May, low in February Considering the cyclical tempo of births, which become determined more and more by a function of human ethics rather than natural law; let me remind the * Prof. Dr. Faculty of Political Science Girne American University Technopark Building TO203 Girne / TRNC [email protected] Received on/Makale gönderim tarihi: June 24, 2016/24 Haziran 2016 Accepted on/Makale kabul tarihi: February 27, 2017/27 Şubat 2017 79 80 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY: LANDING ON TO CIVILIZATION ONCE UPON A TIME readers that the Fourth Demographic Conference [November, 5, 2015] was held in November; a month when births are lowest; as opposed to February when the births are highest as the consequence of high rates of conception in May. Just as they say “April showers bring May flowers” to many couples expecting good news from the nature. Why did I make such an introduction? The answer to this question lies in the following questions. Is flourishing fertile life in May, a pure coincidence, or is it determined by biological abundance of physical products making life easier, (i.e. life opportunities –lop) as well as their impact on physiology of reproduction? In a similar fashion, is adapting to life conditions, rather than “letting the water flow in its own course” thus planning for the consequences of life a behavior of civilized values and norms? As Kiser (ref) once put it, planning is rather a general form of behavior, contagious, once done it has a strong tendency to spread over to other aspects of life transferring life into a more civilized form. Values and norms, vis-à-vis planning and civilization will be a cross cutting theme of this manuscript. How much of a civilized life is lived under the forces of determinism, where an individual does not have any say in it, and how much of it is lived under free will where the individuals can build their decisions on their own choices? The answer lies in the wise words of one world leader. J. Nehru (ref) said, “Life is like a game of cards, the hand that is dealt to you represents determinism, the way you play it is your free will”. Hence, for a planner in general and family planner in particular, the scope of the free will depends upon a) the availability of physical and social environment, and b) the knowledge of the tricks about the game (cards dealt). Only after receiving the cards s/he can make a decision. Demographic transition which is transition to decision based behavior, is embarking from turbulent situations of the pre-transition era, into a more civilized stable situation. The carriers of such flight are values, norms and ethical codes. “Human being” and “being human” are not the same thing. One is biology, the other is sociology, and together they become demography. Formal and informal population policies are central forces for humanity An individual in a society lives a life circumscribed by a) what is materially supplied by nature, and revised by human touch, plus b) immaterial acquisitions surfaced and developed by human ethics. Thus material and immaterial aspects of culture jointly form the basis of social life. Any phenomenon which involves just two or more individuals is a population phenomenon, the study of which is called demography. Biology of heart and AYKUT TOROS 81 its failure is medicine, not demography, however how many people are having heart attacks is a population issue. Therefore any policy which touches to or affects two or more persons is a population policy. It is almost impossible to think of any policies which do not involve at least two persons. The importance of this population policy does not only stem from this fact, but stems from policies that affect its growth and distribution. Actually distribution is nothing but a dynamic function of differential growth of its components. Similarly “zero growth” is simply nothing but a point on the growth continuum. Within this understanding, it would not be a serious divergence to include factors which influence population size and distribution not directly but through intervening variables. Intervening variables show their effect only through differential distributions. Such an anatomical perspective leads to the conclusion that population policies acquire a central position in formulating, material and immaterial components of civilization. Ansley’s Bicycle: Suddenly a man appeared on his bicycle At this point, which is the threshold for this paper in entering into the main topic, it would be appropriate to mention two great and humble men, and one is known for his preference of bicycle as a means of transportation, the other preferring city bus to go to work, while their colleagues consumed the opportunity to ride government limos. The first one is Ansley Coale of Princeton Office of Population Research, the other is Nusret Fişek of Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies. At the same year of 1963, both were busy launching pioneering population projects, one European Fertility Project, the other 1963 Turkish Population Survey. Both of them were able to transform their institution into a Mecca of demographers, i.e. Hacettepe Institute of Population Studies at Home and Princeton Office of Population Research abroad. We were fortunate to have both of them in our First Turkish Demography Conference held on 21-24 February 1968 in Izmir. I feel genuinely privileged, for becoming a member of demographic profession in which I am surrounded by numerous scholars of exceptional high quality. I wish with all my heart that the scholars in other fields are as lucky as I am. Here I like to name, in recognition of all devoted demographers of the past, Norman Ryder’s promotion of Cohort, as an instrumental concept of understanding, social change, has a founding importance in demographic transition. This is being used extensively in cultural analysis of civilization and awaits further instrumentalization in in-depth analysis of understanding demographic transition. A challenge for the new generation. 82 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY: LANDING ON TO CIVILIZATION ONCE UPON A TIME TWO REVOLUTIONS, TWO TRANSITIONS Structure, background and civil life It is frequently overlooked that, demographic transition of our times is not the first transition through which the population acquired a new structure. In its macro simplicity, one can argue that two major revolutions of human civilization led to a demographic transition. One is the Neolithic revolution, the other is the industrial revolution. Both are similar in reflecting a major demographic transition, but the difference is that vital rates have changed in the opposite direction. Figure 1. Neolithic revolution Source: Coale, A. J. (1974). NEOLITHIC REVOLUTION had demographic consequences whose net effect was a slight increase in the rate of population growth. One reconstruction of these events suggests that the death rate (black) increased as a result of greater susceptibility to disease in village life, and perhaps also because agriculture is vulnerable to climatic crises. If the death rate did increase, then it is certain that the birth rate (color) also rose, and by a slightly greater margin. Both vital rates must have fluctuated from year to year, the death rate somewhat more than the birth rate. Even after transiti- on difference between the rates was small. During the Neolithic revolution, the vital rates have shifted from low to high. Death rates increased because of the settlement of hunters and gatherers into villages (or towns) which increased the number of people within a close proximity to each other. This led to the increased susceptibility to contagious and/or infectious diseases. Birth rates increased because of longer average duration of life in fertile ages per person. Thus age structure changed dramatically, increasing the age pyramid vertically, but keeping the growth rates at zero or very near to zero. Compared to pre-Neolithic era, the world population must have increased, because, the “two square miles” which could support only one person in hunters and gatherers populations of pre-Neolithic era, could support more people using the farming technology of Neolithic era (Figure 1). AYKUT TOROS 83 Figure 2. Demographic transition Source: American Association of Geographers (AAG) Center for Global Geography Education website. http://cgge.aag.org/PopulationandNaturalResources1e/CF_PopNatRes_Jan10/CF_PopNatRes_ Jan10_print.html. Last accessed: 10.08.2016. During the industrial revolution, vital rates have shifted from high to low1 (Figure 2). As is widely known, death rates have declined due to control of the factors leading to death (bad nutrition, bad sanitation, bad care etc.) as well as declining birth rates due to control of fecundity performance leading to lower levels of fertility. So the “second demographic transition”, about which I had the privilage of contemplating discussions with its major author, Ron Lestheage at Office of Population Research (OPR), is not a second major demographic transition process, but actually a third one! How much can the transition continue? The expectation of life increased from thirties to seventies during the demographic transition observed through the industrial revolution.