Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 1, 2015, 1-13 The Once-Forgotten Battlegrounds: Studying Provincial Elections in Canada Jared J. Wesley Department of Political Science, University of Alberta – Email address: [email protected] Abstract: This special edition of Canadian Political Science Review tests many of the leading assumptions surrounding Canada’s ten provincial electoral battlegrounds. Based on data and research emerging from the Comparative Provincial Election Project, these studies reveal how many theories based on federal-level evidence require refinement when it comes to their applicability to the provincial realm. Keywords: provincial politics; surveys; federalism; party politics Résumé: Cette édition spéciale de la revue des "sciences politiques canadiennes" teste de nombreuses hypothèses entourant dix campagnes électorales provinciales au Canada. Basée sur les données de recherches émergentes du Projet Comparatif des élections provinciales, ces études révèlent le nombre des théories basées sur un niveau fédéral qui ont besoin de perfectionnement pour être appliquées au niveau provincial. Mots-clés: Mots clés : politique provinciale,enquêtes, fédéralisme, partis politique 1 Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 1, 2015, 1-13 Can we truly understand a research cycle. Provincialists seeking to country’s electoral politics by focusing secure grant funding or space in flagship almost exclusively on nation-wide journals often encounter resistance from elections? This appears to be the their peers, who fail to see the broader assumption underlying generations of applicability of their research to national political science research in Canada. and international politics. A vicious cycle Whether measured by the weight or ensues, denying would-be students of volume of literature, or the content of provincial politics of the tutelage or university courses on the subject, resources to produce top-quality primary “Canadian politics” have become or secondary research. synonymous with “federal politics”. Whatever its source, this lack of Discussions of parties, media, voters, and attention to provincial politics in Canada democracy revolve around the federal- is disappointing, and is becoming level, sub-national actors and trends increasingly indefensible. For one, a receiving far less attention. These growing proportion of Canadian politics is assumptions persist, despite the fact that taking place within the provincial realm, an increasing amount of important with issues like healthcare, political activity is being undertaken environmental conservation, education, outside federal politics. and economic recovery dominating the Indeed, for such a decentralized public agenda. With the federal federation, there is a staggering lack of government vacating much of this policy understanding of politics at the provincial space, provinces are not only assuming level in Canada. While generations of leadership in their traditional areas of researchers, hundreds of volumes, and jurisdiction. Provincial governments are millions of dollars have been spent also assuming a larger presence in areas analyzing federal politics, few research of federal responsibility. This is true in projects have focused on democracy in the international sphere, by virtue of their Canada’s ten, smaller “political worlds”. own positions within the globalized This neglect is understandable on some economy and their concerted efforts to level. Scholars may assume that the engage with foreign partners; in dynamics at play at the pan-Canadian immigration; and in areas like Aboriginal level ought, logically, to apply to the sub- affairs. Considering the leading role national units. Assumptions like these played by provinces in these areas, the pervade the literature in other study of sub-national politics is a federations, as well, like the United States necessary element of understanding and Australia. This ecological fallacy is an Canadian politics, as a whole (not to easy trap in which to fall, but it is a fallacy mention politics on the global scale). and trap, nonetheless. Second, provincial political At the other end of the spectrum, systems have undergone dramatic scholars may view provincial politics as changes since the “high tide” of research too parochial and idiosyncratic to be of over thirty years ago. The last major, interest or value to audiences outside concerted effort to study provincial their borders. This bias is also often politics came amid the constitutional applied to the study of municipal politics debates of the late 1970s and early 1980s, in Canada and elsewhere, and manifests as scholars and governments aimed to itself in numerous ways throughout the gain a better understanding of Canada’s 2 Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 1, 2015, 1-13 Small Worlds (Elkins and Simeon, 1980). the federal level (see Kanji et al., 2012; Even then, the research program was Courtney, 2004). very limited in scope and volume, and Third, the lack of concerted was based on admittedly rudimentary analysis of provincial politics means that data. In the decades that followed, there students of Canadian politics have missed was so little systematic comparison of an opportunity to contribute provincial elections that two leading meaningfully to the global literature on observers remarked, “it is only possible to federalism, democracy, and elections. sketch in a general fashion the variety The Canadian provinces represent a that now marks them” (Carty and series of under-used laboratories for Stewart, 1996: 65). Writing at the turn of comparative analysis in this regard, the twenty-first century, another offering political scientists an lamented “the literature in some areas is unparalleled opportunity to explore the now so dated that any generalizations are complex nature of campaigns, parties, becoming dangerous” (Dunn, 2001: 441). competition, elections, and other Some scholars kept the torchlight elements of democracy, with lessons that burning. There were periodic election could extend well beyond Canada’s studies in Ontario, BC, the Maritimes, borders. As Imbeau et al. (2000: 803) Quebec, and Alberta. And several volumes explain, the provinces provide on provincial politics have emerged since researchers with several notable that low ebb. Yet these studies remain advantages: “low variation on potentially exceedingly rare compared to those disturbing variables; high variability on focusing on the federal level. Christopher variables that are central to research Dunn (2015) edits the only textbook on questions; a number of cases sufficient to provincial politics presently in print, with allow for potentially complimentary his volume organized thematically, such comparative analyses in any of the that each article addresses all ten explanatory schemes used in social provinces according to one of eighteen sciences; and relatively modest research (18) topics ranging from political culture, costs than for international research.” democracy, institutions, political The following articles close these economy, and public policy. Other recent gaps, taking a “laboratory”-based books have focused on specific issues, approach to understanding Canadian relating to public policy (Atkinson et al., politics through the comparative lens of 2013), executives (Bernier et al., 2005), its provincial communities. The purpose and political economies (Brownsey and of the following studies is Howlett, 2001). The Canadian Political straightforward: to test the common Science Review provides space for the wisdom generated from decades of chronicling of individual provincial research at the federal-level, to see if our election campaigns as they occur. understanding of elections, electors, and Unfortunately, none of these sources have electioneering in Canada applies beyond included a systematic, comparative the pan-Canadian to the provincial level. examination of elections in the Canadian Each article tests an element of prevailing provinces – a surprising gap, given the knowledge about Canadian politics, immense amount of research that drawn almost exclusively from federal- continues to be conducted on the topic at level research. Some of this conventional wisdom is reinforced through the 3 Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 1, 2015, 1-13 provincial-level analysis in this edition, equivalent to federal politics. Just as an while other accepted understandings are awareness of federal politics is essential refined or rejected. At the same time, the to an understanding of Canadian politics, edition aims to improve our knowledge so, too, is a grasp of provincial politics. about Canadian politics by employing the This special edition focuses on the latter. provincial laboratories to establish new Regrettably, the edition also models and understandings that are best suffers from the same shortcoming of tested using the comparative method. most studies of subnational politics in An unprecedented cluster of nine Canada: it neglects the study of elections (9) provincial elections held within a two- in the three territories. It has become all year period (2011-2013) provided the too commonplace to justify this omission foundation for these analyses. (Only New for lack of expertise, secondary literature Brunswick voters failed to visit the polls or funding, although all of these excuses during this interval.) This timing allowed factored into the decision to confine the researchers to control for many national present study to provincial politics