coverJAN2012_Layout 1 12/13/11 4:36 PM Page 1 1 AMERICA AEROSPACE January 2012 JANUARY 2012 JANUARY What’s next for U.S. human spaceflight? Indigenous fighters make a comeback ISS: Dawn of a new era A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS page 12 ad.pdf 12/6/11 3:44:48 PM U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration REGISTER15th TODAY! Annual FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference 15–16 February 2012 Walter E. Washington Convention Center Washington, DC C M Y CM MY CY CMY K COMMERCIAL: THE NEW FUTURE OF SPACE 12-0097 For more information contact AIAA customer service, at [email protected]. Wednesday Keynote Luncheon Sponsored by Co-Sponsored by TOC.JAN2012_AA Template 12/13/11 2:02 PM Page 1 January 2012 Page 4 DEPARTMENTS EDITORIAL 3 The not so super committee. INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Pilot training for fifth-generation fighters. WASHINGTON WATCH 8 Page 32 Deadlocked Congress delays decisions. CONVERSATIONS 12 With Domingo Ureña-Raso. THE VIEW FROM HERE 16 Exploration in an uncertain decade. Page 16 AIRCRAFT UPDATE 20 Indigenous fighters make an unexpected return. OUT OF THE PAST 40 CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 42 Page 20 FEATURES WHAT’S NEXT FOR U.S. HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT? 24 Private companies mount surprisingly robust efforts to fill the gap in U.S. manned space transportation capability. by J.R. Wilson ISS: DAWN OF A NEW ERA 32 Planners are envisioning myriad applications for the ISS, possibly extending even beyond its predicted life. by Leonard David Page 24 BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4 AIAA News B5 Meeting Program B13 Call for Papers B19 COVER The Orion MPCV ground test vehicle is prepared for a Launch Abort Vehicle Configuration Test at Lockheed Martin's facilities. Turn to page 24 to read about some interesting future prospects for human space transportation. Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly, except August, by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344 [703/264-7500]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, VA, and at additional mailing offices. Copyright © 2011 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 50, No. 1. 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Our array of customized sponsorship packages include: • Lead/Shared/Tiered Sponsorship Options • Welcome or VIP Receptions • Unique Off-Site Activities and/or Receptions • Keynote Speaking Forums • Scheduled Networking Breaks • Cyber Café Lounge • Attendee Giveaways (bags, lanyards, USB sticks, pens, pads, and programs) Whether you are looking to build new relationships within the aerospace community, or strengthen your brand image as a major industry contender, an AIAA sponsorship will provide global marketing and access to key industry, government, and academia contacts that matter most to your organization. For more information on sponsorship opportunities with AIAA, contact Cecilia Capece, AIAA Sponsorship Program Manager, at 703.264.7570 or [email protected]. 11-0623 january.edit_AA Template 12/14/11 10:36 AM Page 1 ® is a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor Greg Wilson Production Editor Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large The not so super committee Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin The Budget Control Act of 2011, created as a final attempt at resolving the Correspondents United States’ debt ceiling crisis, calls for the creation of the Joint Select Robert F. Dorr, Washington Committee on Deficit Reduction, the ‘supercommittee,’ whose goal was to Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe issue formal recommendations on how to reduce the U.S. deficit by at least Michael Westlake, Hong Kong $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years. These steps would not eliminate the debt; Contributing Writers rather, they would slow down its growth, as they would not decrease federal Richard Aboulafia, James W. Canan, spending but reduce increases. Marco Cáceres, Craig Covault, Leonard The recommendations from this bipartisan committee were to be presented David, Philip Finnegan, Edward to Congress by November 23. If agreement could not be reached in both Goldstein, Tom Jones, James Oberg, chambers by December 23, the act calls for automatic across-the-board cuts, David Rockwell, J.R. Wilson split 50-50 between defense and nondefense spending, including Medicare, Fitzgerald Art & Design an event referred to as sequestration. Art Direction and Design To the surprise of absolutely no one, on November 23 the supercommittee, comprising six members of the House and six from the Senate, announced Brian D. Dailey, President that the supercommittee had reached agreement on the fact that they could Robert S. Dickman, Publisher not reach agreement. Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution After the announcement a collective sigh of relief was heard from all STEERING COMMITTEE potentially affected parties, followed immediately with panic-filled statements Col. Neal Barlow, USAF Academy; Michael to the press that directed cuts would devastate the Defense Department, B. Bragg, University of Illinois; Carol Cash, hobble NASA, cripple Medicare…. Carol Cash & Associates; Basil Hassan, Sandia; However, the automatic cuts mandated by sequestration would not go into Mark Lewis, University of Maryland, Robert effect until 2013, giving lawmakers ample opportunity to rewrite the original E. Lindberg, National Institute of Aerospace; Mark S. Maurice, AFOSR; Merri Sanchez, law, rendering the 2011 act toothless. This also brings us back to the game Sierra Nevada; Vigor Yang, Georgia Institute politicians on both sides have been playing for years now. The rules are of Technology; Susan X. Ying; Boeing simple: Acknowledge that we are in a serious debt crisis. Affix the blame somewhere. Call for cuts across the board except for—fill in the blank. EDITORIAL BOARD And now we get to raise the stakes in this game, because 2012 is a presi- Ned Allen, Jean-Michel Contant, dential election year. This should increase the decibel level on the discussion Eugene Covert, L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Michael Francis, Cam Martin, to ever higher levels. Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell But as all this goes on, we are back to business as usual. In December, NASA Administrator Charles Bolden told reporters that the agency’s budgeting ADVERTISING plans do not factor in the possibility of cuts demanded by sequestration. Leon National Display and Classified: Panetta, the secretary of defense, has stipulated that cutting his department’s Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 budget will make the nation less safe: “If Congress fails to act over the next [email protected] West Coast Display: Greg Cruse, year, the Department of Defense will face devastating, automatic, across-the- 949.361.1870 / [email protected] board cuts that will tear a seam in the nation’s defense,” he said. “The half- trillion in additional cuts demanded by sequester would lead to a hollow Ross B. Garelick Bell Business Manager force incapable of sustaining the missions it is assigned.” But all of this political and fiscal posturing cannot drown out the fact that Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 the nation is facing crippling debt. We can continue to kick this can down the Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA 20191-4344. Changes of address should be road, or we can face the fact that everyone, every department, is going to sent by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax have to take a hit. Otherwise, that silver bullet we all seem to be looking for at 703.264.7606. may come barrelling right at us. Send correspondence to [email protected]. Elaine Camhi Editor-in-Chief January 2012, Vol. 50, No. 1 AA-Layout-BEAT2012_Layout 1 12/13/11 2:18 PM Page 2 Pilot training for fifth-generation fighters DETAILS ON ONE OF THE WORLD’S tion data display capabilities, new tics of the fifth-generation aircraft, ‘set- most complex defense system pro- training devices with enhanced real- up’ ranges will demand larger airspace curement contracts are due to be an- ism, and new ways of thinking about volumes to train in capitalizing these nounced this year. The Air Force’s T-X how to integrate the real and virtual inherent advantages.” program will not just set a new bench- worlds. And it is highly likely that mark for the way pilots are trained to non-U.S. companies will play major The key difference fly single-seat fifth-generation fighters; roles in providing several of these The key difference between a fourth- it will also, if successful, set a new components. and a fifth-generation fighter training benchmark in the procurement