<STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL UNTIL THE OPENING PLENARY OF IWC/57> SC/57/O1 Plan for the Second Phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II) - Monitoring of the Antarctic Ecosystem and Development of New Management Objectives for Whale Resources GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN ABSTRACT The Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA) was conducted between 1987/88 and 2004/05 austral summer seasons, under Article VIII of the International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling. The IWC Scientific Committee conducted an interim review of JARPA results in 1997. In January 2005, a JARPA review meeting called by the Government of Japan was held. JARPA provided a wide variety of information on biological parameters of the Antarctic minke whale such as the natural mortality coefficient and changes over time in the age at maturity as well as narrowing down the parameters of relevance for sock management. JARPA also elucidated that there are two stocks in the research area but their geographical boundaries are different from those used by the IWC. Further, JARPA found that pollutant concentration in whale tissues, such as heavy metals and PCBs, was extremely low. JARPA has thus successfully obtained data related to the initially proposed objectives. The review meeting conducted in January 2005 agreed that results from JARPA are consistent with the behaviour to be expected of baleen whale populations competing for a dominant single food resource, krill. The meeting also agreed that the results obtained provide clear support for the need to take species-interaction (ecosystem) effects into account in understanding the dynamics of the baleen whale species in the Antarctic ecosystem, and predicting future trends in their abundance and population structure. Based on these considerations, the Government of Japan will launch a new comprehensive study under the Second Phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II), combining lethal and non-lethal methods, starting from the 2005/06 austral summer season. The first two seasons (2005/06 and 2006/07) will be dedicated to feasibility studies. The practicability and appropriateness of sighting methods in the enlarged area and sampling procedures given the increased sample size and additional species will be examined. Methods for catching, flensing and taking biological measurements of large body-sized whales will be tested. The full-scale JARPA II will start from the 2007/08 season. It will be a long-term research program with the following objectives 1) Monitoring of the Antarctic ecosystem, 2) Modelling competition among whale species and developing future management objectives, 3) Elucidation of temporal and spatial changes in stock structure and 4) Improving the management procedure for the Antarctic minke whale stocks. JARPA II will focus on Antarctic minke, humpback and fin whales and possibly other species in the Antarctic ecosystem that are major predators of Antarctic krill. Annual sample sizes for the full-scale research (lethal sampling) are 850 (with 10% of allowance) Antarctic minke whales (Eastern Indian Ocean and Western South Pacific Stocks), 50 humpback whales (D and E-Stocks) and 50 fin whales (Indian Ocean and the Western South Pacific Stocks). During the feasibility study, a maximum annual sample size of 850+-10% Antarctic minke whales will be sampled. A maximum of ten fin whales will be sampled in each season. Humpback whales will not be taken during the feasibility study. The research methods for the JARPA II are basically the same as the previous JARPA with some modifications. The program involves both non-lethal research techniques such as sighting surveys, biopsy sampling, acoustic surveys for prey species and the collection of oceanographic data as well 1 as lethal sampling since collection of certain information, of vital importance to the overall study, requires examination of internal organs such as ovaries, earplugs and stomachs. A comprehensive review will be conducted following completion of the first 6 years of the research. Cruise reports will be submitted annually to the IWC/SC. 2 CONTENTS I. Introduction 5 II. Research background 6 1. Outline of the JARPA results 6 2. Global environmental changes 8 3. Necessity to improve the management procedure of Antarctic minke whale stocks 8 III. Research needs and objectives 9 1. Research needs 9 2. Research objectives 10 1) Monitoring of the Antarctic ecosystem 10 I) Monitoring of whale abundance trends and biological parameters 10 II) Monitoring of krill abundance and the feeding ecology of whales 11 III) Monitoring of the effects of contaminants on cetaceans 11 IV) Monitoring of cetacean habitat 11 2) Modelling Competition among whale species and future management objectives 11 I) Constructing a model of competition among whale species 11 II) New management objectives including the restoration of the cetacean ecosystem 11 3) Elucidation of temporal and spatial changes in stock structure 12 4) Improving the management procedure for Antarctic minke whale stocks 12 IV. Research method 12 1. Research area 12 2. Research period 13 3. Target whale species for lethal sampling 13 4. Survey methods and items 14 1) Monitoring of the Antarctic ecosystem 14 I) Monitoring of whale abundance trends and biological parameters 14 II) Monitoring of krill abundance and the feeding ecology of whales 15 III) Monitoring of the effects of contaminants on cetaceans 15 IV) Monitoring of cetacean habitat 15 2) Modelling competition among whale species and future management objectives 15 I) Constructing a model of competition among whale species 15 II) New management objectives including the restoration of the cetacean ecosystem 16 3) Elucidation of temporal and spatial changes in stock structure 17 4) Improving the management procedure for Antarctic minke whale stocks 17 V. Sample size 17 1. Antarctic minke whales 17 2. Humpback whales 18 3. Fin whales 18 VI. Feasibility studies 19 1. Necessity and objectives 19 2. Survey period 19 3. Survey methods 19 4. Sample size 19 VII. Effect on the stocks 19 VIII. Research vessels, research organizations and foreign participation 20 1. Research vessels 20 2. Research organizations 20 3. Participation of foreign scientists 20 IX. Necessity of lethal methods 20 X. Utilizing existing data 20 1. Data from commercial whaling 20 2. Data from JARPA 20 XI. Others 20 1. Processing of whale samples 20 2. Report to the IWC Scientific Committee 20 3. Whale killing methods 21 3 XII. References 21 APPENDICES Appendix 1. Composition of baleen whale species in the JARPA research area - Koji Matsuoka, Takashi Hakamada and Shigetoshi Nishiwaki 25 Appendix 2. What has happened to the Antarctic minke whale stocks? - An interpretation of results from JARPA - Yoshihiro Fujise, Hiroshi Hatanaka and Seiji Ohsumi 37 Appendix 3 Temporal and spatial changes in stock structure of baleen whale species in the Antarctic feeding grounds – Luis A. Pastene and Naohisa Kanda 53 Appendix 4. Monitoring of environmental pollutants in cetaceans and the marine ecosystem in the Antarctic Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean. - Genta Yasunaga and Yoshihiro Fujise 57 Appendix 5. Hypotheses on the abundance changes of krill predators in the Antarctic ecosystem. - Hiroshi Hatanaka 61 Appendix 6. Sample sizes of Antarctic minke, humpback and fin whales required for statistical examination of yearly trend in biological parameters. - Takeharu Bando, Takashi Hakamada, Ryoko Zenitani, Yoshihiro Fujise, Eiji Tanaka and Hidehiro Kato. 63 Appendix 7. Sample size of Antarctic minke whale for the purpose of monitoring yearly trend of blubber thickness. - Kenji Konishi, Takashi Hakamada and Tsutomu Tamura 75 Appendix 8. Sample size required for genetic mark-recapture method to monitor population trend. - Naohisa Kanda 77 Appendix 9. Effect on the stock of the catches by JARPA II. - Takashi Hakamada 81 4 I. INTRODUCTION In 1982, the IWC adopted the moratorium on commercial whaling on the grounds of insufficient scientific knowledge concerning whales. The Government of Japan lodged an objection, but withdrew it in 1985, and the 1986/87 whaling season marked the last commercial operation in the Antarctic by Japan. Thereafter, all commercial whaling in the Antarctic has been suspended to this day. In order to resolve the scientific uncertainties and pave the way for the resumption of sustainable whaling, Japan started a research program, the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA), under Article VIII of the International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling. The main purpose was to elucidate biological parameters of Antarctic minke whales (GOJ, 1987). The program was launched in the 1987/88 austral summer season as a two-year feasibility study (1987/88 and 1988/89 seasons). The full program started in the 1989/90 season and it was a long-term program over eighteen years, including the two years of feasibility studies. Since all commercial whaling had been suspended in the Antarctic, the world's largest source of whale resources, JARPA was in effect the only comprehensive research program that provided a time series of useful biological and ecological information for the management of whale stocks in the Antarctic. The IWC Scientific Committee conducted an interim review of JARPA results in 1997 (IWC, 1998). It was agreed that information from JARPA has the potential to improve the management of Antarctic minke whales. In January 2005, a review meeting of JARPA was hosted by Japan, in which scientists from various countries participated. JARPA provided a wide variety of information on biological parameters such as the natural mortality coefficient and changes over time in the age at maturity as well as narrowing down the parameters of relevance for stock management. The program had also elucidated that there are two stocks in the research area but the geographical boundaries between these stocks are different from those used by the IWC to manage baleen whale species in the Antarctic.