REACHING ZERO WITH RENEWABLES Eliminating CO2 emissions from industry and transport in line with the 1.5 oC climate goal © IRENA 2020 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. Citation IRENA (2020), Reaching zero with renewables: Eliminating CO2 emissions from industry and transport in line with the 1.5 oC climate goal, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ISBN 978 - 92 - 9260 - 269 - 7 Available for download: www.irena.org/publications For further information or to provide feedback, please contact IRENA at [email protected] About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. Acknowledgements IRENA appreciates the technical review provided by: Patrick Akerman (Siemens), Pierpaolo Cazzola (International Transport Forum), Emma Skov Christiansen, Renée Van Heusden, Joanna Kolomanska - van Iperen, and Kevin Soubly (World Economic Forum), Johannah Christensen (Global Maritime Forum), Kilian Crone (dena – German Energy Agency), Keith Dawe (Cargill), Guillaume De Smedt (Air Liquide), Alex Keynes and Anaïs Laporte (FTI Consulting), Florie Gonsolin and Marko Mensink (European Chemical Industry), Charlotte Hebebrand (International Fertilizer Association), Volker Hoenig (VDZ), Chris Malins (Cerulogy), Thomas Neuenhahn and Ireneusz Pyc (Siemens Gas and Power), Andrew Purvis (World Steel Association), Deger Saygin (Shura Energy Transition Center), Carol Xiao (ISPT) and Yufeng Yang (Imperial College). This report also benefited from valuable contributions by IRENA experts: Elisa Asmelash, Francisco Boshell, Gabriel Castellanos, Martina Lyons, Raul Miranda, Gayathri Prakash, Roland Roesch, Emanuele Taibi and Nicholas Wagner. This report was authored by Paul Durrant, Carlos Ruiz, Padmashree Gehl Sampath, Sean Ratka, Elena Ocenic, Seungwoo Kang and Paul Komor. The study was supervised by Dolf Gielen. Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects orproducts does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. Foreword In planning for global emissions reductions, government attention first focused on the power sector, leaving industry, transport and other end-use sectors to be tackled later. That initial focus on electricity has proven effective. Thanks to the dramatic fall in cost of renewables and the increasing scale of their uptake, there is now a credible, cost-effective pathway towards fully decarbonising power production. However, as the scientific understanding of climate change has deepened and as societal and political awareness has grown, the urgency of tacking all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has also become evident. With attention focused increasingly on the 1.5⁰C limit, holding the line on rising global temperatures means eliminating emissions in all sectors of the economy. Energy decarbonisation, therefore, has to move quickly beyond the power sector to fully tackle end-use emissions. This must include the most difficult, energy-intensive Francesco La Camera sectors, such as heavy industry and long-haul transport. Director-General IRENA Low-carbon options, including electric vehicles and clean fuels based on renewables, have become familiar in many countries. But current options for some sectors are not yet sufficient. We need to start developing – and proving – viable solutions for those sectors immediately, in the early 2020s, and be ready to scale them up massively in the 2030 and 2040s. To be in line with the 1.5⁰C goal, decision makers in both the public and private sectors need a clearer view of what needs to be done. They must know what is realistic, what it could cost, and what needs to happen first. This Reaching Zero with Renewables study brings together a wide range of knowledge about how to decarbonise the most challenging industrial and transport sectors. Encouragingly, renewables and associated energy-transition technologies offer viable options in every case. Some of those looked impossible just a few years ago. But falling technology costs and proven synergies have now opened a credible path to cut emissions to zero. Renewable energy uptake would provide at least half of the emission cuts needed in the seven toughest sectors, the analysis indicates. The assessment builds on the Global Renewables Outlook published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in April 2020. Since then, the COVID-19 pandemic has engulfed the world. Yet energy and climate goals, along with the sustainable development agenda, have only gained urgency. Long-term investments in renewables, efficiency and electrification need to be at centre stage in the investment package for the transformative decarbonisation of our societies. With the right plans and sufficient support, key transport and industry sectors can be fully decarbonised. Reaching zero is possible. Let’s work together and do it. REACHING ZERO WITH RENEWABLES Executive Summary Limiting the rise in average global temperatures to Options that would deliver only partial emission 1.5 degrees Celsius (oC) requires all sectors of the reductions, therefore, are not sufficient. Policy makers economy to reach zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and industry investors need to focus unerringly on early in the second half of this century. Doing so scaling up the few options consistent with reaching presents significant technical and economic challenges, the zero-emission goal. Most of those options rely on particularly in some highly energy-intensive sectors of renewable energy technologies. industry and transport. Four of the most energy-intensive industries and These challenges, however, cannot be deferred any longer. three key transport sectors stand out as the hardest The Paris Agreement, in calling for rapid decarbonisation, to decarbonise. Together, those seven sectors could has focused attention on the energy sector as a major account for 38% of energy and process emissions and source of global emissions. The latest studies from the 43% of final energy use by 2050 unless major policy Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show changes are pursued now. the window of opportunity closing fast for meaningful action to counter the global climate threat. Energy-intensive Energy-intensive freight industrial sectors & long-haul transport sectors Iron and Chemicals and Cement Aluminium Road freight Aviation Shipping steel petrochemicals and lime This Reaching zero with renewables study outlines the challenges involved. Secondly, steady and continuing best available deep decarbonisation options for those cost reductions for renewable energy open up a wider sectors. Prepared by the International Renewable range of technology options. Energy Agency (IRENA), it supports the aim of holding the global temperature rise at 1.5oC this century, Renewable energy technologies, along with batteries compared to pre-industrial levels. and other enabling technologies, are now proven to be effective and affordable, in every country, for a Progress in these sectors has been limited to date. growing range of applications. Renewables show But two changes in recent years should allow for more potential – whether for direct energy use or as faster and deeper cuts in emissions. Firstly, societies feedstocks – than ever before. This makes them crucial worldwide have come to recognise the need for to reach zero emissions. deep decarbonisation across all sectors, despite the 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A combination of five emission reduction measures could, if applied at scale, reduce industry and transport CO2 emissions to zero. Direct Energy & Process Direct Energy & Process CO2 CO2 Emissions in 2050 Emissions in 2050 (Planned Energy Scenario) (Planned Energy Scenario) Iron &