The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center October 30, 2011 Escalation in southern Israel: Long- range rocket barrages were launched by the PIJ, resulting in one Israeli dead, four wounded and several dozen treated 1 for shock. Left: House in Ashqelon damaged by rocket fire (Photo by Edi Israel, reprinted courtesy of NRG). Right: Car in Ashdod damaged by rocket fire (Photo by Amir Meiri, reprinted courtesy of NRG). Overview 1. Between October 29 and 30 there was a new round of escalation in southern Israel, during which more than 40 rockets, most of them long-range Grad rockets, and mortar shells fell in Israeli territory. They were fired by the PIJ in response to the killing of the members of a terrorist cell (including high-ranking operatives) by an Israeli Air Force attack on October 29. On October 26 the PIJ, which remained inactive during the Gilad Shalit exchange deal, fired a rocket at the Beer Tuvia region in the western Negev, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Gaza Strip. 1Initial update as of the afternoon of October 30, 2011. 245-11 2 2. The rockets fell in southern Israeli cities and villages at a distance of up to 40 kilometers (about 25 miles) from the Gaza Strip (including the cities of Ashdod and Beersheba). The rocket fire killed one Israeli civilian, a Ashqelon resident, and wounded four. Several dozen civilians were treated for shock and there was extensive property damage. On the morning of October 30 a ceasefire, which was not honored by the PIJ, was brokered by Egypt.2 3. Hamas did not participate in the latest round of escalation, which was led by the PIJ. Ten PIJ terrorist operatives were reportedly killed, among them Ahmed al- Sheikh Khalil, commander of the engineering and manufacturing units. The PIJ is the second largest terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip, maintains close relations with Iran, and in the past did not hesitate to challenge Hamas. The massive support provided by Iran made it possible for the PIJ to build military capabilities, turning it into a significant military threat, especially with regard to firing rockets deep into Israeli territory, including the central region of the country.3 4. It was the first time since August 2011 (the round of escalation following the terrorist attack north of Eilat4) that massive barrages of long-range rockets targeted the large cities in Israel's south. Until three weeks ago there was sporadic rocket fire, carried out primarily by the rogue terrorist organizations. During the past three weeks no rockets were fired, a quiet also respected by the PIJ, due to the release of Palestinian terrorists from Israeli jails in exchange for abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and Hamas' strong interest in preserving calm at the time. The Unfolding of the Events 5. On the night of Wednesday, October 26, a Grad rocket landed in an open area between Ashdod and Gedera, a range of about 40 kilometers (about 25 miles) from the Gaza Strip. There were no casualties and no damage was done. Sirens were heard in many cities, including Rehovot, Yavneh, Nes Tziona and Ashdod (IDF Spokesman, October 26, 2011). No organization claimed responsibility for the rocket fire. The Israeli media reported that the PIJ fired the rocket. 2During the afternoon hours, east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, the Israeli Air Force prevented a squad of operatives belonging to the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine from launching a rocket (Ynet, October 30, 2011). Rocket fire continued throughout the day. 3For further information see the March 17, 2011 bulletin "Terrorism from the Gaza Strip since Operation Cast Lead Data, Type and Trends " at http://www.terrorism- info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/pdf/ipc_e169.pdf 4During which 149 rockets fell in Israeli territory of the 200 which were fired from the Gaza Strip. 3 6. In the early afternoon of October 29, in a combined IDF-Israel Security Agency operation, Israeli aircraft attacked a squad of Jerusalem Brigades (the PIJ's military-terrorist wing) operatives, in the southern Gaza Strip near Rafah. They used technology similar to that used by the squad which fired the rocket at the Beer Tuvia region on October 26 (IDF Spokesman, October 29, 2011). Click for video of the PIJ squad attack http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJTEJwRDF2I&feature=player_embedded#! 7. A Jerusalem Brigades spokesman reported that one of the five operatives killed in the attack was Ahmed Al-Sheikh Khalil (aka Abu Khader), commander of the organizations' engineering and manufacturing units. Muhammed 'Ashour, a high- ranking member of the engineering unit, was also killed (Jerusalem Brigades website, October 29, 2011). In response, that afternoon the PIJ began attacking southern Israel with long-range rockets. Between October 29 and 30 more than 40 rockets hit Ashdod, Ashqelon and Beersheba, and smaller population centers such as Gan Yavneh and the towns and villages in the western Negev. 8. The rocket fire killed one Israeli civilian, a resident of Ashqelon, and four suffered from minor and serious injuries. Several dozen civilians were treated for shock, and there was extensive property damage. Five rockets fired simultaneously from a pickup truck, which according to a PIJ spokesman was the first time the technology was used to attack Israel (Jerusalem Brigades website, October 29, 2011) 9. Among the rocket hits were the following: 1) The first rockets hit Gan Yavneh and Ashdod (approximately 40 kilometers from the Gaza Strip). A Gan Yavneh resident was seriously wounded by shrapnel and was evacuated to a hospital. A number of buildings were damaged. 4 2) One of the rockets which hit Ashdod fell on a school. It landed on a classroom which is used for religious services on Friday. Fortunately was empty at the time and no one was hurt. 3) A rocket which fell on Ashdod later hit a parking lot between two residential buildings. Several vehicles were destroyed and the adjacent buildings were damaged. The site of one of the rocket hits in Ashdod (Photo by Amir Meiri, reprinted courtesy of NRG). 4) An hour later two rockets fell in open areas west of Beersheba. A number of rockets also fell in nearby population centers. There were no casualties. 5) At around 2000 hours two rockets fell in the city of Ashqelon. Two civilians, who were in their cars at the time, were seriously wounded by shrapnel. One of them, a 59 year-old man, Ashqelon resident, married and father of five, later died in the hospital. The car in which the man from Ashqelon was killed (Photo by Edi Israel, reprinted courtesy of NRG). 5 Left: A rocket hit in Ashqelon. Right: Security personnel near the site of one of the rocket hits in Ashqelon (Photos by Edi Israel, reprinted courtesy of NRG). 10. Despite media reports of an Egyptian-brokered cease fire, rocket fire into Israeli territory continued into October 30. Two rockets fell in Beersheba in the morning. One rocket fell in an open area north of Ashqelon. Rockets also east of Beersheba near the Bedouin city of Rahat (east of Beersheba), as well as Ashdod and other population centers. Most of the rockets fell in open areas. Two were intercepted by the Iron Dome air defense system. Mortar shells were also fired from the Gaza Strip into the western Negev and the Erez crossing. There were no casualties and no damage was done. IDF Responses 11. During the day and evening of October 29, Israeli aircraft attacked several terrorist targets, among them the following: 1) On the evening of October 29, a number of terrorist squads preparing to launch rockets into Israel were attacked, as well as two armed launching tripods in the southern Gaza Strip (IDF Spokesman, October 29, 2011). 2) On the night of October 29, six terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip were attacked, including tunnels and rocket launching positions. Other terrorist targets were attacked in the southern Gaza Strip (IDF Spokesman, October 30, 2011). 12. The attacks killed ten PIJ terrorist operatives (IDF Spokesman, October 30, 2011). The Palestinian media reported nine deaths. 13. Following the massive barrage of rockets, on October 30 the Home Front Command decided no schools would be open within a range of 40-47 kilometers (25-29 miles) from the Gaza Strip. In towns and villages around the Gaza Strip within a range of 7 kilometers (almost 4 1/2 miles), classes would be held as usual but only in specially fortified structures (IDF Spokesman, October 29, 2011). 6 Egyptian-Brokered Ceasefire 14. The media reported that the Egyptians made attempts to defuse the situation. According to official Egyptian sources, it was agreed that a ceasefire would go into effect at 0300 hours, October 30 (Reuters, October 30, 2011). In effect, rocket fire from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory continued after 0300 hours. Quiet returned to the western Negev in the middle of the morning, but the rocket fire was renewed during the day. 15. Daud Shihab, PIJ spokesman, said that the organization favorably regarded the Egyptian efforts to achieve a ceasefire, but added that the PIJ reserved the right to respond to any future escalation (Agence France-Presse, October 30, 2011). The website of the Jerusalem Brigades, the PIJ's military-terrorist wing, posted a notice denying that the organization had agreed to stop its rocket fire. On the other hand, a high-ranking figure told the Agence France-Presse that the PIJ would honor a lull in the fighting beginning at 0600 hours, as long as Israel did. Israeli Appeal to the UN 16.