Human Health Concerns as Related to the Changing Weather Patterns across Illinois Olivia Kellner, PhD. Climatologist Illinois State Water Survey Presentation Outline • Quick summary: observed changes in temperature and precipitation across Illinois • A warmer and wetter Illinois climate: Impacts human health – Current Understanding – Data Application/Analysis with PRI Resources • Heat Risk • Air Quality Concerns • Vector-borne Disease Risk • Water-borne Disease Risk • Concluding Remarks As Jim explained, Illinois climate has become warmer…. Illinois Historic Monthly Average Temperature Trend based on 1895-2015 (°F per Century) Courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center January February March April May June 0.36 0.18 1.73 1.17 1.18 1.22 1.29 3.69 3.67 2.70 2.43 1.62 3.19 2.64 1.61 1.75 -0.27 0.05 -0.12 1.88 2.69 1.34 2.30 2.56 0.38 1.54 0.57 1.51 2.83 3.44 2.06 1.04 -0.15 -0.51 3.01 2.72 1.99 1.99 2.28 0.89 1.10 1.11 2.04 0.71 0.27 -0.25 -0.69 2.97 2.61 1.76 1.23 1.74 1.01 0.31 Warming has been primarily in Spring and Winter July August September October November December -0.29 0.05 0.17 0.24 0.47 0.51 0.45 0.61 2.81 2.69 2.01 2.22 -0.15 0.64 -0.11 2.75 -0.73 -0.60 0.28 0.20 -0.58 0.48 -0.27 0.63 0.94 1.96 2.85 1.46 2.33 2.53 -0.25 -0.27 -0.57 0.13 2.19 2.27 -0.18 0.06 -0.43 0.51 1.97 1.93 0.15 -0.52 0.12 -0.54 -1.15 -1.42 0.05 -0.32 1.67 1.52 1.85 1.46 and wetter…. Illinois Historic Monthly Observed Precipitation Trend based on 1895-2015 (Inches per Century) Courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center January February March April May June -0.16 -0.15 0.26 1.29 1.03 0.13 -0.09 0.01 -0.28 0.95 1.03 0.39 -0.40 -0.29 0.99 -0.39 0.08 0.10 -0.49 0.64 0.97 0.22 -0.16 -0.43 0.79 0.56 0.56 0.49 0.40 0.77 -0.34 0.45 0.50 -0.21 0.09 -0.37 0.66 0.64 0.54 0.33 -0.45 1.16 -0.50 0.32 0.93 0.18 -0.82 0.02 0.83 0.38 0.31 -0.02 1.09 1.16 Increases in precipitation have primarily been during spring, summer, and late fall/early winter July August September October November December 0.35 0.75 0.69 0.90 -0.72 -0.46 0.60 0.68 0.62 0.48 0.47 0.71 0.70 0.71 0.49 0.98 0.45 0.38 0.49 -0.25 0.74 0.42 0.74 -0.75 -0.70 0.90 0.77 0.72 0.69 0.62 0.54 -0.24 -0.20 -0.54 0.48 0.91 0.69 0.70 -0.22 0.63 1.02 0.69 -0.29 0.79 0.56 -0.15 0.36 1.15 1.12 0.67 0.60 -0.13 -0.17 0.45 Over the last 150 years, natural and anthropogenic climate drivers have led to a warming climate The remainder of my talk with focus on the impacts of a warmer climate regime on human health in Illinois From: http://serc.carleton.edu/earthlabs/climate/5.html Atmospheric Circulation Shifts in a Warmer Climate Global circulation and midlatitude weather systems are driven by the difference in temperature between the North Pole and the equator • Warmer air pushes Polar Front Jet (PFJ) stream northward into Canada • The PFJ stream weakens (winds slow down) due to weaker temperature difference between North Pole and Image: Jones & Bartlett Learning - www.jblearning.com Equator • The jet stream becomes more meridional (north to south) versus zonal (west to east) • More “extreme” events across the midlatitudes! Stronger jet stream Weaker jet stream • Warmer air holds more moisture Predominantly west-to-east flow Meandering flow A Focus on Heat Risks and Impacts to Human Health EXTREME TEMPERATURES *Figures from Hansen et al., 2012 Warmer Climate and Human Health: Heat • There has been a 20% increase in the number of heatwaves Ratio of record daily maximum high temperatures to from 1949 to 1995 for the record daily low temperatures eastern and western United States (Gaffen and Ross 1998) • The IPCC projects with strong confidence that those areas already experiencing increased heatwave events will experience events of greater intensity and magnitude through the 21st century – This means the Midwest! • Increased energy demand in summer to offset heat, decreased demand in winter due http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/tutorials/2011/day4.lecture11.meehl.pdf to projected milder temperatures Warmer Climate and Human Health: Heat • Warmer temperatures greater Location July 13, 1995 July 14, 1995 concern than colder temperatures Midway T =106, T =81 T =102, T =84 max min max min – Heat is the most prominent cause O’Hare Tmax=104, Tmin=81 Tmax=100, Tmin=83 Lake Villa Tmax=102, Tmin=77 Tmax=100, Tmin=81 of weather-related mortalities in the US (Luber and McGeehin 2008; Data and chart from: NOAA natural Disaster Survey Report. July 1995 Heat Wave Harlan and Ruddell 2011) A lag between the • Consecutive nights of very warm hottest days and nights and the number of nighttime minimum temperatures fatalities has greatest impact (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004) • Most at Risk: – Young and elderly – Those without air conditioning – Pre-existing medical conditions – Individuals taking medications that interfere with salt and water balance (Luber and McGeehin 2008) – Those regularly working outdoors Heat and the Urban Environment • Urban areas projected to see a higher, increased risk • More than half of the world’s population now lives in cities – more difficult to keep cool (Luber and McGeehin 2008) • Urban climate – exacerbates a heatwave – High thermal mass of concrete and blacktop – Low ventilation due to building density – Point-source heat from cars and AC units • All together, these feedbacks contribute to the urban heat island effect, which adds 2°F to 10°F to the ambient air temperature (Luber and McGeehin 2008; Vose, et al. 2004) Heat Response Plan? • Understand your city, village, Research.goaa.gov town, or county’s heat risk through… – Demographic data – Location-specific climatological Know the criteria of the following: • Heat Advisory data • Excessive Heat Watch: • The Midwestern Regional Climate • Heat warning criteria likely in the next 24-72 hours Center within the Illinois State • Excessive Heat Warning: Water Survey is a GREAT resource • Heat Index values meet or exceed for historic climate data warning criteria for at least 2 days (typical values: maximum daytime high – http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/ ≥ 105°F north and minimum nighttime lows ≥ 75°F) – Geospatial analysis to • Air Stagnation Advisory • Atmospheric conditions stable enough determine vulnerability to cause air pollutants to accumulate in “hotspots” a given area. State of Illinois and Chicago Area Populations with Increased Heat Risk Labeled Cities are those with Population of 20,000 or greater Selection Criteria: 1) Poverty (Number of homes within census block at or BRACE Illinois provides detailed county- below poverty level in the last 12 months for family of four) level social vulnerability maps here: 2) Age (greater than or equal to 50) https://braceillinois.uic.edu/summer- 3) Median Age of Dwelling (built prior to 1981) heat-toolkit/heat-addenda/ *Census Block Group Data 2007-2011: https://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/data/tiger-data.html Concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in the lower atmosphere as detected by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument aboard the Aura satellite. Credit - NASA: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2435/on-the-trail-of-a-hazy-global-killer/ AIR QUALITY Warmer Climate and Human Health: Air Quality Shift in Mean Storm Track Particulate Matter Concentrations • Polar jet stream (i.e. “storm track”) • Contributors to increased PM 2.5 projected to shift north levels: – increased humidity – Less midlatitude cyclones across – increased stagnation events Midwest – increased biogenic emissions • reduced ventilation of air from cities • Contributors to decreased PM 2.5 such as Chicago (Mickley, et al. 2004; Jacob levels: and Winner 2009; Ramsey et al. 2014) – increased precipitation – – enhanced atmospheric mixing, and other Allergies, Asthma, respiratory factors could decrease PM 2.5 levels. diseases, & air pollution/air quality • More variability is projected for all impacted these climate variables in a warmer climate – no consensus yet on net increase or decrease in PM 2.5 levels in the United States from climate fluctuations, just a increase in the severity of events *From Fann, et al., 2016. http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/climate-change-the-jet-stream Projected Changes in Temp., O3, and O3-Related Premature Deaths in 2030 compared to 2000 (from Balbus et al., 2016) Moderate Emissions (RCP 6.0) Each year (2000 and 2030) is represented by 11 years of modeled data for May through September, the traditional ozone season in the United States. Higher Emissions (RCP 8.5) Warmer Climate and Human Health: Air Quality - Allergies Figure 1. From Beggs, 2004 Primary Impacts of Climate Change • Increased levels of CO2, warmer temperatures, and increased rainfall have extended the length of the growing season – Increases in the amount of allergenic pollens Ragweed pollen season length – Increases the potency of the increased by as much as 11 to allergenic pollens 27 days (1995 -2011) in parts of the US and Canada because of – Expands the spatial distribution warmer temperatures.