INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS BANGLADESH: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN By Ahmad Jawad Khan NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MODERN LANGUAGES ISLAMABAD June 2020 INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS BANGLADESH: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN By Ahmad Jawad Khan MA, International Relations. University of Balochistan, 2015 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF PHILOSOPHY International Relations To FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MODERN LANGUAGES, ISLAMABAD June 2020 © Ahmad Jawad Khan (2020) i THESIS/DISSERTATION AND DEFENCE APPROVAL FORM The undersigned certify that they have read the following thesis, examined the defense, are satisfied with the overall exam performance, and recommend the thesis to the Faculty of Social Sciences for acceptance. Thesis/ Dissertation Title: INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS BANGLADESH: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN Submitted by: Ahmad Jawad Khan Registration #: 1288-MPhil/IR/F16 Master of Philosophy Name in Full International Relations Discipline Dr. Sarwat Rauf Research Supervisor Signature of Research Supervisor Dr. Riaz Shad Head International Relations Signature of HOD-IR Dr. Shahid Siddiqui Dean (FSS) Signature of Dean (FSS) Brig. Muhammad Ibrahim DG NUML Signature of DG NUML ii CANDIDATE DECLARATION FORM I, Ahmad Jawad Khan Son of, Khalid Saif Ullah Khan Registration #, 1288-MPhil/IR/F16 Discipline, International Relations Candidate of Master of Philosophy at the National University of Modern Languages do hereby declare that the thesis: INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS BANGLADESH: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN submitted by me in partial fulfillment of M.Phil. degree, is my original work, and has not been submitted or published earlier. I also solemnly declare that it shall not, in future, be submitted by me for obtaining any other degree from this or any other university or institution. I also understand that if evidence of plagiarism is found in my thesis dissertation at any stage, even after the award of degree, the work may be cancelled, and the degree revoked. 20-06-2020 Dated Signature of Candidate Ahmad Jawad Khan Name of Candidate iii TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE THESIS AND DEFENSE APPROVAL FORM …………………………... i CANDIDATE DECLARATION FORM ………………………………….. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS …………………………………………………... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT …………………………………………………. v DEDICATION ……………………………………………………………… vi ABBREVIATIONS ……………………………………………………….... vii ABSTRACT ……………………………………………………………….... ix INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………………….. 1 Statement of the Problem …………………………………………………….. 3 Research Questions ………………………………………………………….. 4 Objectives of Study ………………………………………………………….. 4 Literature Review ……………………………………………………………. 4 Research Methodology ……………………………………………………..... 15 Theoretical Framework …………………………………………………….... 19 Significance of Study ………………………………………………………… 23 Delimitation ………………………………………………………………….. 25 Chapter Breakdown ………………………………………………………….. 25 1. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF PAKISTAN AND BANGLADESH…………………………………………………………….. 27 1.1 Muslim Homeland within Sub-Continent.………………………. 27 1.2 Muslim Brotherhood and Formation of Pakistan……………….. 27 1.3 General Iskandar Mirza Regime ………………………………... 31 1.4 General Mohammad Ayub Khan Regime ……………………..... 33 1.5 General Yahya’s Regime ……………………………………….. 37 1.6 Pakistan-India War of 1971 ……………………………………... 53 2. INDIA-BANGLADESH RELATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN ..................................................................................................... 57 2.1 Emergence of Bangladesh ……………......................................... 57 2.2 Overview of India-Bangladesh Relations ………………………. 58 2.2.1 India-Bangladesh Water Sharing Issues ……………………….... 69 2.2.2 Border Enclave Issues: A Contestation …………………………. 74 2.2.3 India-Bangladesh: Transit Trade Issues ……………………….... 78 2.3 India-Bangladesh Partnership: Implications for Pakistan….......... 83 iv 3. PAKISTAN-BANGLADESH RELATIONS: HOSTAGE TO HISTORY …………………………………………………………………… 85 3.1 Secession of East Pakistan ……………………………………... 91 3.2 Initial Contacts and Mutual Recognition ……………………….. 93 3.3 General Zia ul Haq Regime: Normalisation of Relations ……..... 97 3.4 Musharraf Regime: Improvement of Ties ……………………… 101 3.5 Post Musharraf Developments …………………………………. 103 3.6 Indian Interference: An Unending Legacy ……………………... 107 4. INDIAN INFLUENCE ON BANGLADESH AND HEGEMONIC DESIGNS …………………………………………………………………… 109 4.1 Bangladesh Creation: Foreign Policy Cardinals ………………... 113 4.2 India-Bangladesh Relations …..................................................... 115 4.3 SAARC and Indian Hegemony ………………………………… 118 4.4 Indian Inference Designs ………………………………………. 120 4.5 Akhand / Maha Baharat Decade …………………………..…… 128 4.6 Neglect, Mistrust and Suspicion ………………………………... 130 4.7 Plentitude of Might is Right ……………………………………. 131 CONCLUSION ……………………………………………………………... 133 BIBLOGHRAPHY ……………………………………………..................... i APPENDICES………………………………………………………………. xiii v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost, (Alhamdulillah) I thank Allah (SWT) for giving me strength to complete this study and writing a thesis to the best of my capabilities. Sincerest gratitude goes to my supervisor, for rendering me requisite help / guidance, as and when required. My sincere thanks and appreciation goes to my family, friends and well- wishers, for their unending guidance and prayers. I would like to by name express my gratitude to Dr. Khalid Saif Ullah Khan, Mrs. Anisa Khalid Khan and Dr. Jalees Khalid Khan, as writing of this thesis would not have been possible without their kind prayers, support and help. vi DEDICATION I DEDICATE THIS THESIS TO MY MOTHERLAND PAKISTAN AND MY LOVED ONES vii ABBREVIATIONS AL : Awami League BIMSTEC : Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation BIPPA : Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement BJP : Bhartiya Janata Party BJI : Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami BNP : Bangladesh National Party BOP : Border out Posts BRI : Belt and Road Initiative BSF : Border Security Force (Indian) BTV : Bangladesh Television CAA : Indian Citizen Amendment Act CSO : Civil Society Organisations CBMP : Coordinated Border Management Plan CDA : Critical Discourse Analysis CIA : Central Intelligence Agency CMLA : Chief Martial Law Administrator CPEC : China Pakistan Economic Corridor DCF : Defence Cooperation Framework Dr : Doctor etc : et cetera EU : European Union GBM : Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna/Barak Gen : General (A rank in Army) GHQ : General Headquarters GOC : General Officer Commanding GWT : Ganges Water Treaty IB : Intelligence Bureau ICRC : International Committee of Red Cross IDSA : Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses IJI : Islamic Democratic Alliance IPU : Inter-Parliamentary Union IR : International Relations ISI : Inter-Services Intelligence JI : Jamaat-e-Islami JRC : Joint Rivers Commission (India–Bangladesh) Km : Kilometer LBA : Land Boundary Agreement LFO : Legal Framework Order MNA : Member National Assembly MPA : Member Provincial Assembly MOU : Memorandum of Understanding Mr : Mister Mrs : Misses MW : Mega Watt NA : National Assembly viii NGO : Non-Governmental Organisations NRC : India’s National Register for Citizens OBOR : One Belt One Road OIC : Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (earlier known as Organisation of Islamic Countries) PIA : Pakistan International Airlines PM : Prime Minister POW : Prisoners of War PPP : Pakistan People’s Party PTI : Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf RAW : Research and Analysis Wing (Indian) RLP : River Linking Project RTC : Round Table Conference RAAI : Rabita Al-Akan-Al-Islam SAARC : South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SAFTA : South Asian Free Trade Agreement SAPTA : South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement SCO : Shanghai Cooperation Organization UDI : Unilateral Declaration of Independence UN : United Nations UNHCR : United Nations High Commission for Refugees US : United States ix ABSTRACT Thesis Title: Indian Foreign Policy Towards Bangladesh: Implications for Pakistan South Asia is a volatile region characterized by, two nuclear arch rivals India and Pakistan. Security dilemma that lies between the two states shapes the strategic environment of the region. Indian desire to be a regional hegemon that not only increases the instability but also deepens the security dilemma in the region. Indian dubious role since 1947, and influence employed on neighbours, to meet her hegemonic designs, has implications for Pakistan. Owing to the Indian concocted and anti-Pakistan fabricated narratives and Pakistan’s weak foreign policy towards its neighbours, Pakistan has deeply suffered on the South Asian canvas. When it comes to major powers of the world, Pakistan’s foreign policy appeared as a failure because it remained unsuccessful to exploit her geopolitical importance during the Cold War period. In 1971, East Pakistan was separated due to Indian interventions, and Pakistan could not earn worthwhile support from her allies. Whereas, Indian foreign policy makers had been successful in creating strong lobby in almost all-important countries, thus succeeded in making Pakistan isolated. India’s growing influence and employment of interference strategies, in regional politics and the formation of respectable relations with bordering countries, mainly Bangladesh is causing a great threat for Pakistan.This research focuses on the turbulent relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh, which has been in consistent turmoil mainly due to Indian foreign policy. The study revolves around the question that intensification of