Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change in Lebanon and Egypt on Water Scarcity, Agricultural Output and Food Security Final Report December 2013 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to express our special appreciation and thanks to the research project‟s team. This report was prepared by the Columbia University Middle East Research Center, the Earth Institute at Columbia University, the American University of Beirut, and the American University in Cairo. Research team members: FHI 360 – Regional Partnership on Culture and Development Matthew Pietz Mariam Hanna Dalia Abulfotuh Columbia University Middle East Research Center - Institute for Sustainable Development Practices Mohammad Alamoush Nasma Barghouthi Columbia University’s Earth Institute - Center on Globalization and Sustainable Development Kye Baroang American University of Beirut – Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Relations Dr. Nadim Farajalla Charbel Abou Haidar Elias Chnais Nadine Modad American University in Cairo – Research Institute for Sustainable Environment Dr. Richard Tutwiler Dr. Tina Jaskolski Hagar El Didi Cindy Youssef Yara Moustafa Shaymaa Hassan Colleen Devlin Yumna Kassim Eng. Hassan Husseiny 2 Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 7 3.0 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1 Literature Review, Synthesis Study and Macro Level Analysis......................................................................... 8 3.2 Expert Consultations ............................................................................................................................................... 8 3.3 Case Studies .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 3.4 Final Workshops ...................................................................................................................................................... 9 4.0 Literature Review ........................................................................................................................................................ 11 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 11 4.2 Egypt ........................................................................................................................................................................ 11 4.2.1 Population and its Distribution ................................................................................................................... 11 4.2.2 Water Resources and Water Security .......................................................................................................... 12 4.2.3 Agriculture and Food Security ..................................................................................................................... 13 4.2.4 Climate: Past, Present and Future ............................................................................................................... 15 4.2.5 The Nexus: Water, Food, Climate and Population .................................................................................. 16 4.3 Lebanon ................................................................................................................................................................... 17 4.3.1 Population and its Distribution ................................................................................................................... 17 4.3.2 Water Resources and Water Security .......................................................................................................... 18 4.3.3 Agriculture and Food Security ..................................................................................................................... 19 4.3.4 Climate: Past, Present and Future ............................................................................................................... 21 4.3.5 The Nexus: Water, Food, Climate and Population ................................................................................. 22 4.4 Comparison Matrix ................................................................................................................................................ 23 5.0 Consultation Workshop Summary .......................................................................................................................... 28 6.0 Case Studies ................................................................................................................................................................. 29 6.1 Overall Introduction.............................................................................................................................................. 29 6.2 Egypt ........................................................................................................................................................................ 29 6.2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 29 6.2.2 Shubra Qubala ................................................................................................................................................ 29 6.2.2.1 Population Dynamics ............................................................................................................................. 29 6.2.2.2 Water Sources and Uses ........................................................................................................................ 30 6.2.2.3 Livelihoods and Farming....................................................................................................................... 31 6.2.2.4 Food Security .......................................................................................................................................... 32 6.2.2.5 Climate Impacts ...................................................................................................................................... 33 Page | 3 6.2.3 Abu Minqar ..................................................................................................................................................... 34 6.2.3.1 Population Dynamics ............................................................................................................................. 34 6.2.3.2 Water Sources and Uses ........................................................................................................................ 34 6.2.3.3 Livelihoods and Farming....................................................................................................................... 36 6.2.3.4 Food Security .......................................................................................................................................... 37 6.2.3.5 Climate Impacts ...................................................................................................................................... 37 6.2.3.6 Key Challenges and Solutions .............................................................................................................. 37 6.2.4 Imam Malek .................................................................................................................................................... 38 6.2.4.1 Population Dynamics ............................................................................................................................. 38 6.2.4.2 Water Sources and Uses ........................................................................................................................ 38 6.2.4.3 Livelihoods and Farming....................................................................................................................... 40 6.2.4.4 Food Security .......................................................................................................................................... 41 6.2.4.5 Climate Impacts ...................................................................................................................................... 41 6.2.4.6 Key Challenges and Solutions .............................................................................................................. 41 6.3 Lebanon ................................................................................................................................................................... 42 6.3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 42 6.3.2 Kfardebian ....................................................................................................................................................... 42 6.3.2.1 Population Dynamics ............................................................................................................................. 42 6.3.2.2 Water Sources and Uses