MEDIATION ARGUMENTS MEDIATION Mediation Arguments no. 5 THE DOG THAT DIDN’T BARK: THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY Chris Saunders April 2014 Copyright © Chris Saunders, 2014 Mediation Arguments is a working paper series of the Centre for Mediation in Africa, based in the Department of Political Sciences at the University of Pretoria (www.centreformediation.up.ac.za). The series explores the G\QDPLFVDQGRXWFRPHVRIPHGLDWLRQHIIRUWVWRSUHYHQWPDQDJHDQGUHVROYHKLJKLQWHQVLW\FRQÀLFW7KHVHULHV editors are Chris Ankersen, Laurie Nathan and Maxi Schoeman. The copy editor is Di Kilpert. The mission of WKH&HQWUHLVWRFRQWULEXWH WRHQKDQFLQJ WKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIPHGLDWLRQLQPDMRUFRQÀLFWVLQ$IULFDWKURXJK teaching, training, research and supporting the UN, the AU, sub-regional organisations and African govern- ments. The Centre is funded by generous grants from the governments of Belgium and Norway. Requests for permission to reproduce this paper, and proposals to submit a paper, should be sent to [email protected] Centre for Mediation in Africa. University of Pretoria ISSN 2306-8078 (print) 3ULYDWH%DJ;+DW¿HOG6RXWK$IULFD ,661 RQOLQH 7KHGRJWKDWGLGQ¶WEDUN7KHDEVHQFHRIVLJQL¿FDQW international mediation in the South African transition to democracy Chris Saunders* The struggle to overthrow apartheid came to an end in the early 1990s in a negotiated settlement WKDWSURYLGHGIRUDWUDQVLWLRQWRPDMRULW\UXOHDQGWKHQHZHUDZDVXVKHUHGLQE\6RXWK$IULFD¶V¿UVW democratic election, held in April 1994, the outcome of which was widely accepted. The large literature on this ‘miracle’ transition, which few had expected to be successful since only a few years previously WKHFRQÀLFWKDGDSSHDUHGLQWUDFWDEOHQHJOHFWVWKHSULPDU\TXHVWLRQWKDWWKLVSDSHUDGGUHVVHVZK\ZDV WKHUHQRVLJQL¿FDQWLQWHUQDWLRQDOWKLUGSDUW\PHGLDWLRQ"7KHSDSHUDUJXHVWKDWZKLOHWKHDQVZHULVQRW VLPSOHWKHFRQ¿GHQFHEXLOGLQJDPRQJWKHPDLQDGYHUVDULHVWKDWWRRNSODFHEHIRUHIRUPDOQHJRWLDWLRQV EHJDQZDVVXI¿FLHQWWRPDNHH[WHUQDOPHGLDWLRQXQQHFHVVDU\DQGERWKWKHPDLQSDUWLHVWKRXJKWWKH OLNHO\RXWFRPHZRXOGEHEHWWHUIRUWKHPZLWKRXWVXFKPHGLDWLRQ Introduction 'HWHFWLYH,VWKHUHDQ\RWKHUSRLQWWRZKLFK\RXZRXOGZLVKWRGUDZP\DWWHQWLRQ" +ROPHV7RWKHFXULRXVLQFLGHQWRIWKHGRJLQWKHQLJKWWLPH 'HWHFWLYH7KHGRJGLGQRWKLQJLQWKHQLJKWWLPH +ROPHV7KDWZDVWKHFXULRXVLQFLGHQW1 ,QDOPRVWHYHU\FDVHRIDPDMRUFRQÀLFWLQUHFHQWWLPHVLQWHUQDWLRQDOPHGLDWLRQKDVSOD\HGDVLJQL¿FDQW role in attempts at resolution. We have only to think of such relatively recent cases as, say, the mediation by Richard Holbrooke of the US in the negotiations that led to the signing of the Dayton Accords on Bosnia in 1995, or the mediation by former US Senator George Mitchell that helped produce the Good Friday DJUHHPHQW LQ 1RUWKHUQ ,UHODQG LQ 7KRXJK WKH ,VUDHOL3DOHVWLQLDQ FRQÀLFW UHPDLQV XQUHVROYHG this is not for want of international mediation, by, inter alia, President Jimmy Carter at Camp David in 1978, the Government of Norway in the early 1990s and the present US Secretary of State, John Kerry, in 2013. There are, in addition, numerous examples of international mediation helping to resolve FRQÀLFWVLQ$IULFDVRPHRQDFRQWLQHQWDOEDVLVVRPHDUHJLRQDORQHIRUH[DPSOHIRUPHU6RXWK$IULFDQ 3UHVLGHQW7KDER0EHNLKDVPHGLDWHGLQFRQÀLFWVRQEHKDOIRIERWKWKH$8DVLQWKHRQJRLQJGLVSXWHV EHWZHHQ6XGDQDQG6RXWK6XGDQDQG6$'&LQWKHLQWHUQDOFRQÀLFWVLQWKH'HPRFUDWLF5HSXEOLFRIWKH &RQJRLQWKHHDUO\VDQGWKHQLQ=LPEDEZH HJ6KLOOLQJHU :KLOHVLJQL¿FDQWLQWHUQDWLRQDO third-party mediation is most commonly conducted by the representatives of a state or group of states, such as the Western Contact Group (WCG) on Namibia in 1977/8, NGOs sometimes play a major role LQVHWWOLQJDFRQÀLFWDVWKH&RPPXQLW\RI6DQW¶(JLGLREDVHGLQ5RPHGLGLQ0R]DPELTXHLQWKHHDUO\ 1990s (e.g. Hume 1994). 0\UHYLHZRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQPHGLDWLRQKDVUHYHDOHGQRVWXG\RIDFDVHZKHUHDPDMRUFRQÀLFWZDV UHVROYHG WKURXJK QHJRWLDWLRQV ZLWKRXW VLJQL¿FDQW LQWHUQDWLRQDO PHGLDWLRQ HJ 6WHQHOR 0LWFKHOO :HEE7RXYDO =DUWPDQ&KDQ -DEUL.ORW]$]DU %XUWRQ .OHLERHU&URFNHUHWDO1DWKDQ=DUWPDQ )DXUH3ODQWH\=DUWPDQ 7RXYDO=DUWPDQ%HUFRYLWFK%HUFRYLWFK -DFNVRQ 6LVN%HUFRYLWFK 6LPSVRQ 7KLVPD\VXJJHVWWKDWWKHDEVHQFHRIVXFKPHGLDWLRQLVRIQR importance. I argue that this is not so. &KULV6DXQGHUVLV(PHULWXV3URIHVVRU8QLYHUVLW\RI&DSH7RZQDQG5HVHDUFK$I¿OLDWH(QYLURQPHQWDODQG*HRJUDSKLFDO Sciences, University of Cape Town. He can be contacted at [email protected] 1 From Silver Blaze, in 7KH0HPRLUVRI6KHUORFN+ROPHV, Arthur Conan Doyle, 1894. April 2014 ,QWKLVSDSHU,¿UVWDVNZKHWKHUWKHUHZDVLQGHHGQRLQWHUQDWLRQDOPHGLDWLRQLQWKH6RXWK$IULFDQFDVH, WKHQH[SODLQWKHDEVHQFHRIVLJQL¿FDQWH[WHUQDOPHGLDWLRQZLWKUHIHUHQFHWRFHUWDLQVSHFLDOIHDWXUHVRI WKH6RXWK$IULFDQFDVH7KLVFRXQWU\¶VFRQÀLFWDQGWUDQVLWLRQZHUHGLIIHUHQWIURPWKRVHRIRWKHUFRXQWULHV LQWKHUHJLRQ7KHWUDQVLWLRQZDVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\FRQ¿GHQFHEXLOGLQJDSDUWLFXODUEDODQFHRIIRUFHV and a strong belief by the main parties, the African National Congress (ANC) and the ruling National Party (NP), that there should not be international mediation. I argue that these are the main reasons why WKHWUDQVLWLRQZDVDFKLHYHGZLWKRXWVLJQL¿FDQWH[WHUQDOPHGLDWLRQ Was international mediation absent in the South African case? 7KRXJKWKHZRUGµPHGLDWLRQ¶LVRIWHQXVHGLPSUHFLVHO\WKHUHLVJHQHUDODJUHHPHQWLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHWKDWLW LQYROYHVDWKLUGSDUW\\HWVKRXOGQRWEHVREURDGO\GH¿QHGDVWRFRYHUHYHU\NLQGRIWKLUGSDUW\LQYROYH- PHQWLQDFRQÀLFWVXFKDVJLYLQJDGYLFHWRWKHSDUWLHVRUDWWHPSWLQJWRH[HUWOHYHUDJH,IROORZWKRVHZKR GH¿QHPHGLDWLRQDVDZD\WRPDQDJHRUUHVROYHDFRQÀLFWLQZKLFKµDWKLUGSDUW\KHOSVWKHGLVSXWDQWV ZLWKWKHLUFRQVHQWWRUHDFKPXWXDOO\VDWLVIDFWRU\DJUHHPHQWV¶ 1DWKDQ WKRXJKPHGLDWLRQPD\ also be involved in implementing an agreement. Mediation may, then, take place in any or all of the three SKDVHVLQWKHSURFHVVOHDGLQJWRUHVROXWLRQRIDFRQÀLFWWKHSUHQHJRWLDWLRQSKDVHZKHUHWKHSDUWLHV come to an agreement to sit down at the table and negotiate, the negotiation phase itself, and the imple- PHQWDWLRQSKDVHZKHUHZKDWZDVQHJRWLDWHGLVSXWLQWRDFWLRQ HJ0DXQGLHWDO ,QWKH6RXWK$IULFDQFDVHWKH¿UVWSUHSDUDWRU\SKDVHLQFOXGHG\HDUVRIµWDONVDERXWWDONV¶WKDWKHOSHG lay the ground for the 1990 commencement of formal negotiations. At least 141 meetings took place in the pre-negotiation phase between representatives of the ANC in exile and people from within South Africa.2 The second phase, the formal negotiations, began with the bilateral meeting between the government and the ANC in May 1990 and continued in multilateral negotiations, at what was initially FDOOHG WKH &RQYHQWLRQ IRU D 'HPRFUDWLF 6RXWK$IULFD &2'(6$ DQG ODWHU NQRZQ DV WKH 0XOWL3DUW\ Negotiating Forum (MPNF) (e.g. Haysom 2002). In those negotiations the main parties were the ANC and the NP. In November 1993 a new constitution was agreed on, along with mechanisms for holding a democratic election, and efforts were then made to ensure that the election was as inclusive as SRVVLEOH7KHWKLUGSKDVHRSHQHGZLWKWKHKROGLQJRIWKDWHOHFWLRQLQODWH$SULOWKHHOHFWLRQRXWFRPH ZDVDFFHSWHGE\DOOSDUWLHVDQGWKH¿QDOFRQVWLWXWLRQZDVGUDZQXSLQ,WFDQEHVDLGWKDWE\WKHQ WKHFRQÀLFWZDVUHVROYHGLQWKHVHQVHWKDWWKHIRUPDOSURFHVVRIPRYLQJIURPDSDUWKHLGWRDGHPRFUDWLF constitution had taken place, and the political violence of the transition period had died down. We can WKHUHIRUHWDONRIDµVXFFHVVIXO¶HQGWRWKHSURFHVVHYHQLIWKH¿QDOFRQVWLWXWLRQVWLOOKDGWREHSXWLQWR HIIHFWDQGWKHFRXQWU\¶VPDQ\DQGPDVVLYHVRFLRHFRQRPLFSUREOHPVUHPDLQHGWREHDGGUHVVHG ,VLWLQGHHGWKHFDVHWKDWWKHUHZDVQRVLJQL¿FDQWLQWHUQDWLRQDOPHGLDWLRQLQDQ\RIWKHVHWKUHHSKDVHV of the South African transition? Throughout the process we saw intense international interest and LQYROYHPHQWRIYDULRXVNLQGVLQFOXGLQJPDQ\DWWHPSWVWRLQÀXHQFHWKHWUDQVLWLRQ3 but very few examples of formal third-party mediation. ,QWKH¿UVWSKDVHOHDGLQJXSWRWKHIRUPDOQHJRWLDWLRQVYDULRXVH[WHUQDOSOD\HUVWULHGWREULQJWKHSDUWLHV together. President Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia held two secret meetings with South African President 3:%RWKDEHIRUHKRVWLQJLQ6HSWHPEHUDPHHWLQJLQ=DPELDEHWZHHQ$1&RI¿FLDOVDQGH[HF- XWLYHVRIWKH6RXWK$IULFDQEDVHG$QJOR$PHULFDQ&RUSRUDWLRQ &KDQ:DOGPHLU 2 A chronology of meetings between people from South Africa and the ANC in exile, from 1983 to 1990, is available from Michael Savage, retired sociologist, University of Cape Town ([email protected]). 3 7KHDWWHPSWVDWLQÀXHQFHUDQJHGIURPRIIHULQJDGYLFHDQGSURYLGLQJLQIRUPDWLRQWRH[HUWLQJSUHVVXUH7KHEHVWGLVFXVVLRQ LV/DQGVEHUJ HVSHFLDOO\&KDSWHU VHHDOVR/DQGVEHUJ 3 Mediation Arguments That meeting was followed by numerous others between various groups of South Africans from within WKHFRXQWU\DQGPHPEHUVRIWKHH[LOHG$1&$VWKHFRQÀLFWLQ6RXWK$IULFDZRUVHQHGDQGYLROHQFH escalated in the mid-1980s, some of those outside South Africa attempted to bring the two sides together DQGFUHDWHDFOLPDWHIRUQHJRWLDWLRQV0LFKDHO<RXQJRIWKH/RQGRQEDVHGKHDGRI¿FHRI&RQVROLGDWHG *ROG¿HOGVDUUDQJHGWDONVWKDWWRRNSODFHLQ(QJODQGLQ +DUYH\(VWHUKX\VH WKH government of Switzerland funded attempts by the Cape Town-based lawyer Richard Rosenthal to FUHDWHDGLDORJXH 5RVHQWKDOSDVVLP DQGWKH)UDQFH/LEHUWpV)RXQGDWLRQRI'DQLHOOH0LWWHUUDQG ZLIHRIWKH)UHQFK3UHVLGHQWKHOSHG¿QDQFHDPHHWLQJEHWZHHQ$1&RI¿FLDOVDQG$IULNDQHUVLQ'DNDU in 1987 and in Paris in 1989 (e.g. Shaw 2007, 103). 6XFKLQLWLDWLYHVLQEULQJLQJWKHWZRPDLQFRQÀLFWSDUWLHVWRJHWKHUKHOSHGEXLOGWUXVWEHWZHHQWKHPDQG WKHUHZHUHRWKHUDWWHPSWVE\RXWVLGHUVLQWKHODWHVWRFUHDWHWKHFRQGLWLRQVIRUQHJRWLDWLRQV([DPSOHV of these were the training workshops held by Roger Fisher, director of the Harvard Negotiation Project and co-author of the famous *HWWLQJWR<HV1HJRWLDWLQJ:LWKRXW*LYLQJ,Q (Fisher & Ury 1981), with politicians who were expected to play a role in future negotiations. Fisher sought to show how an end WRDSDUWKHLGFRXOGEHQHJRWLDWHGE\DQDSSURDFKWKDWUHFRJQL]HGWKDWWKHFRQÀLFWZDVQRWD]HURVXP