DISSERTATION Titel der Dissertation „Spatial and temporal development of landslide risk - a contribution to risk management in the context of global change “ Verfasserin Mag. Catrin Promper angestrebter akademischer Grad Doktorin der Naturwissenschaften (Dr. rer. nat.) Wien, 2014 Studienkennzahl lt. Studienblatt: A 796 605 452 Dissertationsgebiet lt. Studienblatt: Geographie Betreuerin / Betreuer: Univ.-Prof. Dipl.-Geogr. Dr. Thomas Glade It is always wise to look ahead, but difficult to look further than you can see. (Winston Churchill 1874 – 1965) Acknowledgements Many people encouraged and supported me in my research activities and the writing of this PhD thesis. I would like to take the opportunity to express my gratitude for all the support. I would like to first thank Thomas Glade, who gave me the opportunity to be part of the ENGAGE group working in the projects ChangingRISKS and SEERISK. Thank you, Thomas for encouraging me to work on the topic of landslide risk and all your support for my PhD. thesis. I thank Jean-Philippe Malet, Alexandre Remaître and Anne Puissant for welcoming me at CNRS and the Laboratoire Image, Ville et Environnement of the University of Strasbourg. I am grateful for the warm welcome, the productive research stay and fruitful discussions. Further I want to thank Santiago Bégueria for the good collaboration and discussions. This thesis would not have been possible without the generous provision of data by the Provincial Government of Lower Austria. I would like to express my gratitude to the department “Raumordnung und Regionalpolitik” and especially Gilbert Pomaroli and Friedrich Pühringer for the interest in this thesis and the continuous support. All current and former ENGAGEis who shared a part of the journey with me, thank you for good advice, ongoing discussions, relaxing coffee breaks and open ears. For a great time we spent together in our office and for fruitful discussions I would like to thank Maria Papathoma-Köhle. Christine Gassner, I am grateful for a great collaboration and your support which you provided unconditionally in many different ways. Thank you, Martin, Karin and Marius for your assistance and good company in the field and during the time consuming mapping tasks of my thesis. For proof-reading I would like to express my gratitude to Melanie, Karin, Helene, Maria and Rainer. Helene, Melanie, Karin and Sven thank you for all your support, especially in the final phase. Thank you for the good times we had and your friendship. The last phase of this thesis was supported by continuous motivation of my colleagues from the Austrian Service of Torrent and Avalanche Control. Thank you for your back- up. I would also like to express my gratitude to all my friends and all the people I might have forgot, thank you for open ears and your support. Ein riesen Dankeschön möchte ich hier auch meiner Familie aussprechen. Ohne eure Unterstützung und den kontinuierlichen Rückhalt wäre es mir nicht möglich gewesen diese Arbeit zu schreiben. Es ist schön zu wissen, dass ich bei euch immer ein zu Hause haben werde. Lieber Rainer, du hast in den richtigen Momenten motivierende Worte gefunden, mir den Rücken freigehalten und immer an mich geglaubt. Vielen Dank für alles! TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................ I LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................ IV LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................. VI 1. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 1 2. NATURAL HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT ....................................... 5 2.1 CONCEPT OF NATURAL HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT ................................................................................. 5 2.2 RISK ASSESSMENT AS CRUCIAL PART OF RISK MANAGEMENT .................................................................... 8 2.3 NATURAL HAZARD RISK IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT ........................................................................ 10 2.4 REGIONAL LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................... 11 2.4.1 Elements at risk .................................................................................................................. 15 2.4.2 Landslide hazard assessment ............................................................................................. 17 2.4.3 Landslide exposure assessment .......................................................................................... 23 2.4.4 Dynamic factors of landslide risk assessment ..................................................................... 24 2.4.5 Concept of global change scenarios in risk assessment ...................................................... 29 2.5 RESEARCH GAP AND HYPOTHESES ................................................................................................... 30 3. WAIDHOFEN/YBBS – INTRODUCTION AND DATASETS ............................................................... 35 3.1 WAIDHOFEN/YBBS ‐ A REGIONAL CENTRE IN THE ALPINE FORELAND ........................................................ 35 3.2 DATASETS .................................................................................................................................. 41 4. ASSESSMENT OF SPATIOTEMPORAL DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL LANDSLIDE RISK – A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ......................................................................................................... 47 4.1 REGIONAL LANDSLIDE EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT ................................................................................... 48 4.1.1 Elements at risk database .................................................................................................. 49 4.1.2 Multilayer exposure assessment......................................................................................... 51 4.2 LAND COVER ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................. 53 4.2.1 Setting the scale of analysis ............................................................................................... 53 4.2.2 Defining appropriate land cover classes ............................................................................. 54 4.2.3 Analysis of past land cover ................................................................................................. 54 4.2.4 Analysis of future land cover .............................................................................................. 55 4.3 SPATIOTEMPORAL ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDE EXPOSURE ..................................................................... 58 I 4.3.1 Land cover scenarios .......................................................................................................... 58 4.3.2 Exposure assessment ......................................................................................................... 58 5. SPATIOTEMPORAL DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL LANDSLIDE EXPOSURE .................................. 61 5.1 REGIONAL LANDSLIDE EXPOSURE ..................................................................................................... 61 5.1.1 Elements at risk database .................................................................................................. 61 5.1.2 Multilayer exposure maps .................................................................................................. 63 5.2 LAND COVER ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................. 66 5.2.1 Setting the scale of analysis ............................................................................................... 66 5.2.2 Definition of appropriate land cover classes ....................................................................... 67 5.2.3 Analysis of past land cover ................................................................................................. 67 5.2.4 Analysis of future land cover .............................................................................................. 69 5.3 SPATIOTEMPORAL ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDE EXPOSURE ..................................................................... 79 5.3.1 Land cover scenarios .......................................................................................................... 79 5.3.2 Exposure assessment ......................................................................................................... 82 6. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS AND HYPOTHESES ............................................................................. 87 6.1 ON THE CHALLENGES OF MULTILAYER EXPOSURE MAPS ........................................................................ 88 6.2 ON THE EFFECT OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON LANDSLIDE RISK ....................................................................... 91 6.3 ON THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN LAND COVER TO LANDSLIDE EXPOSURE .................................................... 93 6.4 POTENTIAL APPLICATION AND LIMITATIONS ....................................................................................... 96 7. CONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVES ............................................................................................