Pacific Forum CSIS Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations edited by Brad Glosserman Vivian Brailey Fritschi 3rd Quarter 2003 Vol. 5, No. 3 October 2003 www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Pacific Forum CSIS operates as the autonomous Asia-Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Founded in 1975, the thrust of the Forum’s work is to help develop cooperative policies in the Asia-Pacific region through debate and analyses undertaken with the region’s leaders in the academic, government, and corporate arenas. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic/business, and oceans policy issues. It collaborates with a network of more than 30 research institutes around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating its projects’ findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and publics throughout the region. An international Board of Governors guides the Pacific Forum’s work; it is chaired by Brent Scowcroft, former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. The Forum is funded by grants from foundations, corporations, individuals, and governments, the latter providing a small percentage of the forum’s $1.2 million annual budget. The Forum’s studies are objective and nonpartisan and it does not engage in classified or proprietary work. Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Edited by Brad Glosserman and Vivian Brailey Fritschi Volume 5, Number 3 Third Quarter 2003 Honolulu, Hawaii October 2003 Comparative Connections A Quarterly Electronic Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Bilateral relationships in East Asia have long been important to regional peace and stability, but in the post-Cold War environment, these relationships have taken on a new strategic rationale as countries pursue multiple ties, beyond those with the U.S., to realize complex political, economic, and security interests. How one set of bilateral interests affects a country’s other key relations is becoming more fluid and complex, and at the same time is becoming more central to the region’s overall strategic compass. Comparative Connections, Pacific Forum’s quarterly electronic journal on East Asian bilateral relations edited by Brad Glosserman and Vivian Brailey Fritschi, with Ralph A. Cossa serving as senior editor, was created in response to this unique environment. Comparative Connections provides timely and insightful analyses on key bilateral relationships in the region, including those involving the U.S. We regularly cover 12 key bilateral relationships that are critical for the region. While we recognize the importance of other states in the region, our intention is to keep the core of the e-journal to a manageable and readable length. Because our project cannot give full attention to each of the relationships in Asia, coverage of U.S.-Southeast Asia and China- Southeast Asia countries consists of a summary of individual bilateral relationships, and may shift focus from country to country as events warrant. Other bilateral relationships may be tracked periodically (such as various bilateral relationships with India or Australia’s significant relationships) as events dictate. Our aim is to inform and interpret the significant issues driving political, economic, and security affairs of the U.S. and East Asian relations by an ongoing analysis of events in each key bilateral relationship. The reports, written by a variety of experts in Asian affairs, focus on political/security developments, but economic issues are also addressed. Each essay is accompanied by a chronology of significant events occurring between the states in question during the quarter. A regional overview section places bilateral relationships in a broader context of regional relations. By providing value-added interpretative analyses, as well as factual accounts of key events, the e-journal illuminates patterns in Asian bilateral relations that may appear as isolated events and better defines the impact bilateral relationships have upon one another and on regional security. ii Table of Contents Regional Overview:………………………………………………………………………1 Multilateral Approaches Prevail . For Now! by Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS The United States turned multilateralist this quarter, sitting down in a six-party setting to discuss North Korea’s nuclear program even as a U.S.-instigated 11-nation group was practicing how to prevent Pyongyang from exporting weapons elsewhere. More quietly, Australia’s “coalition of the willing” is restoring some semblance of order in the Solomons. U.S. military restructuring plans in South Korea moved ahead slowly as did any progress in obtaining Aung San Suu Kyi’s release in Burma, while a failed mutiny indicated that serving as a “second front” in the war on terrorism is not the only challenge facing President Arroyo’s beleaguered government. Speaking of beleaguered, President Bush went back to the UN to seek international help in securing the peace in Iraq, while trade negotiators hope that next quarter’s APEC Leaders’ Meeting avoids being the disaster that this quarter’s WTO gathering in Cancun proved to be. U.S.-Japan Relations:…………………………………………………………………..21 The Primacy of Politics by Brad Glosserman, Pacific Forum CSIS It has been a quiet quarter for the U.S.-Japan relationship. The dispatch of troops to Iraq notwithstanding, there have been no serious, specific bilateral problems for the two governments to address. While they have diverged on some multilateral questions, the goodwill accumulated over the last two years has bridged those differences. In both countries, domestic politics dominated decisionmaking. Prime Minister Koizumi focused on re-election as LDP president; having won that campaign he now turns to the general election expected in early November. President Bush has begun to concentrate on the 2004 campaign with U.S. voters increasingly concerned about their economic prospects. Attention now turns to the Oct. 17 summit. It should go well: U.S.-Japan relations are one of the few unquestioned successes for both administrations. iii U.S.-China Relations:…………………………………………………………………..33 The Best since 1972 or the Best Ever? by Bonnie S. Glaser, Consultant on Asian Affairs Continued cooperation on security matters, especially the challenge posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs, bolstered U.S.-China relations this quarter. Washington lauded China’s vigorous diplomatic efforts that culminated in the six-party talks in Beijing at the end of August. China formally joined the Container Security Initiative, agreeing to permit U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials to work side- by-side with their Chinese counterparts to target and pre-screen cargo containers destined for the U.S. Washington publicly rebuked Beijing for not living up to promises made last December to make progress on specific human rights issues. Treasury Secretary John Snow failed to persuade Chinese officials to appreciate the RMB. The Department of Defense released its annual report on July 30 on Chinese military power. U.S.-Korea Relations:…………………………………………………………………..47 The Ups and Downs of Multilateral Diplomacy by Donald G. Gross, Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld China brokered the first round of six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue during this quarter. North Korea used the talks to rattle its nuclear saber and otherwise threaten the U.S. On the margins of the meeting, North Korean diplomats met bilaterally with U.S. officials, but their discussion did not foster any apparent progress. U.S. and South Korean military officials continued to fine-tune the redeployment of U.S. troops. The talks were characterized by mutual agreement on the redeployment plan and transfer of military missions to South Korea, but differences over its timing. Finally, South Korea challenged the U.S. decision to impose penalties on semiconductor exports. South Korea will appeal the decision to the WTO. U.S.-Russia Relations:………………………………………………………………….57 Energizing the Relationship by Joseph Ferguson, The National Bureau of Asian Research If you must pick one event that is truly indicative of the tenor of U.S.-Russia relations, you need not look to Camp David or the palaces around St. Petersburg, the sites of the last two presidential summits. Instead, look to the gasoline station on the corner of 10th Avenue and 24th Street in NY; the first Lukoil station to be opened in the United States. The U.S.-Russian effort to push energy ties is taking precedence over most other aspects of the relationship. The two sides continue to agree to disagree about Chechnya, Iran, and Iraq. NATO and Central Asia are still sore points. Trade issues and human rights to this day raise tensions. But the energy relationship is global and strategic and it continues to grease the squeaky spots of this post-Cold War “partnership.” iv U.S.-Southeast Asia Relations:………………………………………………………...65 Terrorism Perpetrated and Terrorists Apprehended Sheldon W. Simon, Arizona State University Acts of terrorism, arrests of terrorists, and judicial convictions dominated the Southeast Asian political scene this past quarter. The Jakarta Marriott bombing, the capture of Hambali – Jemaah Islamiyah’s (JI) most notorious fugitive − and the conviction of several of the Bali bombers as well as JI’s spiritual leader, Abu Bakar Bashir, capped a tumultuous three months during