PIN•Points Processes of International Negotiation Network Perspectives 44 juni 2017 IN THIS ISSUE: CURRENT AND FUTURE CHALLENGES IN NEGOTIATION MEDIATION IN WEST-AFRICA AND THE LEVANT NEGOTIATION AND MEDIATION IN EURASIA PREVIEWS OF PIN PUBLICATIONS 2 PIN•Points 44/2017 EDITORIAL The world today is faced with a will continue. Earlier mediation lenges, has bruited a new approach plethora of obstinate negotiation by two of the world’s leading dip- involving the whole region’s coming challenges: Syria, Cyprus, Pales- lomats went nowhere because the together in a cooperative secu- tine, North Korea, South Sudan, UN Security Council did not support rity endeavor, drowning the smaller Russia, not to speak of the im- its own mandate and the conflict cancer in a common health club. pending multilaterals over NAFTA, was not ripe in the central parties’ A pound of convention is worth an Brexit, NATO cost-sharing, and minds, a situation elaborated on in ounce of cure. Unlike Syria and others. Some of these represent an article by I. William Zartman and Cyprus, agreement may be more missed opportunities, others tacti- Raymond Hinnebusch in this issue within reach at this higher level; cal experiments, still others chal- of PINPoints. anyhow, it’s worth a try, as another lenge to creativity and construction, article by Moti Cristal in this issue and others the need for a tough Cyprus presents an opportunity for of PINPoints examines and Dr. Go- approach, but all have some les- resolution every decade and until lan speaks eloquently of it as well. sons for negotiating. The list is this decade has been destroyed elaborated on in the remarks of four by one party or the other, facing South Sudan, newly independent leading commentators presented at an S5 (Soft, Stable, Self-Serving from (North) Sudan, immediately the PIN-sponsored negotiation Day Stalemate) situation. This time, all fell into a fratricidal civil war when in Washington DC at the Johns Hop- depends on whether the leader of its external enemy was removed. kins University School of Advanced one of the patron parties, Turkey, Incredibly, two rival leaders, backed International Studies (SAIS) on 27 newly narrowly confirmed as dicta- by decades and more of tribal ani- February: Ambassador Thomas R tor, will throw his weight in favor of mosities, have been able to cause Pickering, former US Undersecre- an agreement that both North and hundreds of thousands of deaths, tary of State and ambassador to 6 South Cypriot parties grudgingly absorb billions of dollars of devel- different countries and the UN; Am- see in their own interests, prefer- opmental aid, absorb quantities of bassador Princeton Lyman, former able to a continued S5. As in Syria, arms from bystanding states, rank US Assistant Secretary of State and the external patrons generally op- second to last (175th) on Transpar- ambassador to Nigeria and to South erate to keep accord from breaking ency Inc.’s corruption scale, and Africa; Dr Galia Golan, professor out since the stalemate is serving thumb their noses at UN and emeritus at the Hebrew University most to their own selves. There may Western efforts to arrange a truce and at the Interdisciplinary Center be better chances of agreement if and peace. (The African Union com- Herzlia; and Dr. Vali Nasr, Dean of the local parties could be left alone mittee, with patrons of each side in SAIS and special advisor to Rich- to make their own agreement, as its membership, says only that they ard Holbrooke in Afghanistan and analyzed by Paul Meerts in an arti- should try again). Unfortunately, Pakistan. cle in this issue of PINPoints. there is no lesson because there is no process. An article in a fellow Syria represents a sick outcome Palestine/Israel still on the docket, publication, International Negotia- to the encouraging story of the despite efforts every US presiden- tion, examines the insolent tragedy Arab Spring, the only major case tial mandate to show that ripeness and Ambassador Lyman speaks of (among Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen is a subjective thing within the par- it as well. and Libya) where egregious au- ties, no matter what the objective tocracy, formerly considered the facts would indicate. As in Syria, North Korea poses an escalating Arab way of government, has not the parties both feel that they can challenge of serious proportions. been overthrown. It is now subject win but even more, that they daren’t The Six Party Talks have not met to a ceasefire that neither side re- lose. Yet it may be that the patron under Kim Jong Un and Barack spects, with no indication of what powers do feel the hurt of a stale- Obama, but the missile and nuclear comes next; the khilafa will be mate and the threat of a common industry in North Korea have made destroyed, leaving tentacles of the enemy. The new US administration, dangerous progress. New US Sec- hydra on their own, and civil war which seems to like Great Chal- retary of State Rex Tillerson has not www.pin-negotiation.org 3 CONTENTS COLOPHON PINPoints 2 EDITORIAL Copyright 2017 PIN 4 POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS IN THE UPCOMING YEAR: A SYMPOSIUM PINPoints is the biannual publication THOMAS PICKERING, PRINCETON LYMAN, GALIA GOLAN, VALI NASR of the Processes of International Negotiation Program (PIN). 17 ECOWAS MEDIATION IN THE GAMBIA MARK ANSTEY PIN is a non-profit group of scholars and practitioners that encourages 21 CYPRUS NEGOTIATIONS ON THE BRINK and organizes research on a broad PAUL MEERTS spectrum of topics related to international negotiation seen as 26 A REGIONAL PARADIGM FOR THE MIDDLE-EAST a process. The PIN network includes CONFLICT more than 4,000 scholars and MOTI CRISTAL practitioners of international negotiation. The organization is 30 RUSSIA IN CONFLICT MEDIATION: presided over by a Steering Committee, NEW OPPORTUNITIES, NEW TACTICS? which organizes its many activities and I. WILIAM ZARTMAN & MIKHAIL TROITSKIY edits the PINPoints. 33 TUG OF WAR: NEGOTIATING SECURITY IN EURASIA, PIN is a project of the Netherlands A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Institute of International Relations FEN OSLER HAMPSON & MIKHAIL TROITSKIY ‘Clingendael’, a leading think tank and academy on international affairs, 37 NEGOTIATING HISTORY IN EURASIA European integration and security VALERIE ROSOUX issues based in The Hague. 45 IN MEMORIAM – MORTON DEUTSCH Issue Editor: I. William Zartman GUY OLIVIER FAURE Associate Editors: 46 NEGOTIATING JUSTICE: FROM CONFLICT TO Chloe Colbert, Paul Meerts and COOPERATION 2017 PIN PROJECT ANNOUCEMENT Jan-Willem Pot CECILIA ALBIN Design and lay-out: 49 NEGOTIATING RECONCILIATION IN PEACEMAKING: Symon Maks - www.maksimaal.nl QUANDRIES OF RELATIONSHIP BUILDING BOOK PREVIEW ED. I. WILLIAM ZARTMAN Contact The Netherlands Institute of 51 INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATION: A JOURNAL OF International Relations ‘Clingendael’ THEORY AND PRACTICE Wilbur Perlot, PIN Coordinator JOURNAL PREVIEW Clingendael 7 2597 VH The Hague The Netherlands STEERING COMMITTEE: T +31 70 374 6681 E [email protected] W www.pin-negotiation.org M. CRISTAL MEERTS P. F. O. HAMPSON F. M. ANSTEY G. O. FAURE C. ALBIN W. PERLOT W. ROSOUX V. R. SCHÜSSLER ZARTMAN I W. M. TROITSKIY 4 PIN•Points 43/2016 ruled out negotiations but only after PART 1: AMBASSADOR THOMAS PICKERING “denuclearizing, giving up their weapons of mass destruction” or, POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS IN THE UPCOMING as earlier intimated, at least some YEAR: A SYMPOSIUM of them. That is not a promising start for a conflict that has known a US-DPRK Framework Agreement in 1994, Six-Party Talks in 2000-2008, In a world of tremendous and very open for that is a fundamental area of and several promises to denuclear- rapid change, change itself is part and common agreement. Were we able to ize. What it has not now, half a cen- parcel of all international problems we reach agreement on a one sentence tury after the war, is a peace treaty, are facing. Let us postulate some sets communique that says that we are and the escalating confrontation of issues on where negotiation can be both committed to keeping air and raises so many preceding hurdles a useful tool in dealing with them. sea lanes open, that would not only that it is ever more difficult to turn have begun the destruction of the to the underlying issue. In a classic First of all, issues of great power fiction of the nine-dash line, but it security dilemma, Pyongyang feels rivalries, for example the West would also open the door for other that the US is targeting it with sanc- dealing with Russia. There is a need agreements in the region. tions and if course it is right. It then for reducing the number of nuclear takes more measures to raise the weapons on both sides. We seem to The United States needs to avoid ante, in response or independently be prohibited by Putin’s reservations destroying Europe or allowing or for domestic reasons, all invit- from getting there and Trump’s Europeans destroy Europe, there is ing more sanctions. Such vicious blandish don’t seem to have opened no formula for that. The French voted spirals are hard to break. The only the door. Several of the precursors wisely and so did the Dutch. Hopefully lesson is that, as often, analysis is for that may well be how, and what the Germans will follow these not praxis, perception is not policy, way, ABM cooperation could be examples. It is hoped that our friends empathy is not engagement, and designed and usefully pursued. And in London are confecting an article 50 that understanding is useless if it in a world of logic and rationale that legislation for the British parliament does not help us think how to im- would be an important step towards that will build in the notion that the prove the situation.