––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Bali 2002 Security threats to Australians in South East Asia August 2004 © Commonwealth of Australia ISBN 0 642 71414 2 This document is produced by the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee secretariat, and printed by the Senate Printing Unit, Parliament House, Canberra. MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE Members for the 40th Parliament Senator the Hon Peter Cook, ALP, WA (Chair to 25 March 2004) Senator Steve Hutchins, ALP, NSW (Chair from 25 March 2004) Senator Sandy Macdonald, NPA, NSW (Deputy Chair) Senator John Hogg, ALP, Qld Senator Gavin Marhall, ALP, Victoria Senator David Johnston, LP, WA Senator Natasha Stott Despoja, AD, SA (Substituted for Senator Aden Ridgeway) Participating Members on this inquiry Senator Linda Kirk, ALP, SA Senator George Brandis, LP, Qld Senator Bob Brown, AG, Tas Senator Santo Santoro, LP Qld Participating Members Senators Abetz, Bartlett, Boswell, Carr, Chapman, Colbeck, Collins, Conroy, Coonan, Denman, Eggleston, Evans, Faulkner, Ferguson, Ferris, Fifield, Forshaw, Harradine, Harris, Hutchins, Knowles, Lees, Lightfoot, Mackay, Mason, McGauran, Murphy, Nettle, Payne, Santoro, Tchen, Tierney and Watson. Secretariat Mr Brenton Holmes, Secretary Ms Saxon Patience, Acting Secretary Ms Andrea McAuliffe, Principal Research Officer Ms Peta Leemen, Acting Principal Research Officer Ms Pamela Corrigan, Research Officer Ms Sarah Finnin, Internship Program Participant Ms Rebecca Edwards, Executive Assistant Ms Laurie Cassidy, Executive Assistant Parliament House Canberra ACT 2600 Phone: (02) 6277 3535 Fax: (02) 6277 5818 e–mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.aph.gov.au/senate_fadt iv CONTENTS MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE............................................................. iii List of Abbreviations .........................................................................................ix Conduct of the inquiry.......................................................................................xi Terms of reference.................................................................................................xi Recommendations ........................................................................................... xiii Executive summary..........................................................................................xiv Introduction .........................................................................................................xiv Chapter One ........................................................................................................1 A close look at the intelligence picture ...................................................................1 No specific intelligence ..........................................................................................1 Beyond specific intelligence...................................................................................3 What do we understand by 'intelligence'? ..............................................................7 The state of intelligence pre-Bali ...........................................................................9 Concluding remarks..............................................................................................25 The Blick Report ..................................................................................................29 Misleading commentary about intelligence .........................................................33 Meeting with Minister Downer, June 2002..........................................................38 Chapter Two......................................................................................................53 DFAT Travel Advice.........................................................................................53 Travel advice in the light of Bali..........................................................................53 General background about travel advisories ........................................................55 Travel advice by Australia and its consular partners ...........................................61 Travel advice after September 11 and before the Afghanistan action .................64 Travel advice from 8 October 2001......................................................................68 Travel advice in 2002 leading up to the Bali attacks on 12 October ...................70 Concluding remarks..............................................................................................73 v Chapter Three ...................................................................................................77 Intelligence reports, threat assessments and travel advice.................................77 Concluding remarks..............................................................................................98 Chapter Four...................................................................................................103 Bali—an attractive soft target? ...........................................................................103 Compensation for victims of the Bali bombings................................................114 Chapter Five ....................................................................................................117 Remarks by Government Senators.....................................................................117 Chapter Six ......................................................................................................129 DISSENTING REPORT......................................................................................129 Senator Bob Brown, Australian Greens .............................................................129 Senator Natasha Stott Despoja, Australian Democrats ......................................129 Intelligence .........................................................................................................129 Travel advice ......................................................................................................132 Findings ..............................................................................................................133 Recommendation................................................................................................134 Timeline to terror .................................................................................................135 Abbreviations .....................................................................................................144 Appendix 1 .......................................................................................................145 Submissions received by the Committee ............................................................145 Appendix 2 .......................................................................................................147 Witnesses who appeared before the Committee................................................147 Canberra, 19 June 2003 ......................................................................................147 Canberra, 20 June 2003 ......................................................................................147 Canberra, 24 September 2003 ............................................................................147 Adelaide, 25 September 2003.............................................................................148 Canberra, 20 November 2003.............................................................................148 Canberra, 27 November 2003.............................................................................148 Canberra, 28 November 2003.............................................................................149 Canberra, 28 May 2004 ......................................................................................149 Canberra, 23 June 2004 ......................................................................................150 Canberra, 5 August 2004....................................................................................150 vi Appendix 3 .......................................................................................................151 WHAT OUR INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES DO Appendix 4 .......................................................................................................153 TRAVEL ADVISORIES FOR INDONESIA Appendix 5 .......................................................................................................193 EXTRACT FROM TRANSCRIPT OF EVIDENCE 28 NOVEMBER 2003 vii viii ix List of Abbreviations ADF Australian Defence Force AFP Australian Federal Police ANU Australian National University ASEAN Association of South–East Asian Nations ASIO Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation ASIS Australian Secret Intelligence Service ASPI Australian Strategic Policy Institute CIA (US) Central Intelligence Agency DFAT Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade DIG Defence Intelligence Group DIGO Defence Imagery and Geospatial Organisation DIO Defence Intelligence Organisation DSA Defence Security Authority DSD Defence Signals Directorate FBI (US) Federal Bureau of Investigation FPI Islamic Defenders Front ICG International Crisis Group IGIS Inspector–General of Intelligence and Security JI Jemaah Islamiyah LJ Laskar Jihad LJL Laskar Jundullah NZ New Zealand MMI Indonesian Mujahidin Council OBL/UBL Osama bin Laden/Usama bin Laden ONA Office of National Assessments SAC/PAV Standing Advisory