R4-07 NIAS Study - 2007 An Assessment of China's Ballistic and Cruise Missiles S. Chandrashekar Sonika Gupta Rajaram Nagappa Arvind Kumar International Strategic and Security Studies Programme NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ADVANCED STUDIES Bangalore, India An Assessment of China's Ballistic and Cruise Missiles NIAS Study - 2007 S. Chandrashekar Sonika Gupta Rajaram Nagappa Arvind Kumar International Strategic and Security Studies Programme NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ADVANCED STUDIES Bangalore, India © National Institute of Advanced Studies 2007 Published by National Institute of Advanced Studies Indian Institute of Science Campus Bangalore - 560 012 ISBN 81-87663-76-6 Price: Rs. 1000/- TTTypeset & Printed by Aditi Enterprises #17/6, 22nd Cross, Bhuvaneshwari Nagar Magadi Road, Bangalore - 560 023 Mob: 92434 05168 Acknowledgement The authors would like to thank Dr. K. Kasturirangan, Director, NIAS for his encouragement and support for this study. The authors would like to specially thank Dr. Anuradha Reddy, Dr. V. Siddhartha and other former colleagues for their useful comments and suggestions on various sections of this study. CONTENTS Page Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................1 Background .............................................................................................................................6 The Missiles .....................................................................................................................14 - 51 DF-1 ...............................................................................................................................14 DF-2 ...............................................................................................................................16 DF-3 ...............................................................................................................................18 DF-4 ...............................................................................................................................22 DF-5 ...............................................................................................................................27 JL-1/DF-21 ....................................................................................................................36 JL-2/DF-31 ....................................................................................................................40 DF-15 .............................................................................................................................43 DF-11 .............................................................................................................................45 Cruise Missiles ...............................................................................................................46 Organisations, Infrastructure & Networks ..............................................................................51 Deployment, Command and Control ......................................................................................69 Strategic Environment & Military Strategy.............................................................................79 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................90 Appendix - I: Image Analysis ................................................................................................. 93 Appendix - II: Capabilities of DF-31..................................................................................... 122 Appendix - III: Range Calculation for Cruise Missiles......................................................... 130 Appendix - IV: Second Artillery Corps ................................................................................. 134 International Strategic and Security Studies Programme Executive Summary The primary objective of this study is to provide an independent assessment of Chinese ballistic and cruise missile capability. The study also addresses the organisational, strategic and political links in China that impact upon its missile programme. Our study on the Chinese Ballistic and Cruise Missiles uses images of these missiles available in the public domain to make an independent assessment of their capabilities. Length and diameter measurements on the images of these missiles are used to estimate propellant and stage masses. These estimates are used along with trajectory and range models to assess the performance of the missiles. This methodology has been applied to the DF-1, the DF-2, the DF-3, the DF-4, the DF-5, the JL-1 / DF- 21, the JL-2 / DF-31, the DF-15 and the DF-11 ballistic missiles. The scope of our study also included the longer range cruise missiles. Since there were not many images of these missiles available in the public domain we were not able to extend these methods to cover them. However, we have taken stock of developments in Chinese cruise missiles. As and when images become available we believe that our approach can be used to assess their performance as well. The DF-1 and the DF-2 missiles that the Chinese had built with assistance from the Soviet Union have been retired from active service. Our measurements of the length and diameter of these missiles are in agreement with values quoted in the published literature. The DF-3 was the first indigenous missile developed by the Chinese. It was also the first missile to use earth storable propellants – UDMH and AK-27. Though the chronology of the images is not exact, our analysis of the images shows a trend of increasing sophistication and performance. The analysis confirms the existence of at least two variants of the DF-3. We also see three warheads with the shortest of them possibly being a conventional warhead. The DF-3 has been exported by China to Saudi Arabia with a conventional warhead capability. Our estimates of the lift-off weights of the DF-3 are lower than estimates available in the published literature though our lengths for the two variants are fairly close to the published values from different sources. Our estimates of the range for the DF-3 and the DF-3A with a 2200 kg warhead are 2636 and 2736 km respectively. These are fairly close to the values of 2500 and 2750 km quoted in the literature. The DF-4 is a two-stage missile that uses the DF-three stage as the booster stage. We see two versions of this missile with lengths of 27.13 and 27.48 m respectively. These two versions are almost exactly the same except that for the longer missile the upper stage tanks have been stretched by about 0.42 m. According to publicly available information the Chinese ordered their missile engineers to increase the range of the DF-4 so that they could target Moscow. Our analysis independently confirms this. 1 An Assessment of CHINA’S BALLISTIC AND CRUISE MISSILES As was the case for the DF-3 our estimates of the propellant masses and stage masses for the DF-4 are lower than the figures quoted in public information sources. Our length and diameter measurements match well with other publicly available information. The range for the DF-4 and the DF-4 variant with a 2000 kg payload is 4476 km and 4662 km respectively. These are once again fairly close to values available in the published literature. The DF-5 is the largest missile available in the Chinese arsenal. It uses UDMH and nitrogen tetroxide as fuel and oxidizer. It is also the first Chinese missile to use an inertial platform for control and guidance. Our measurements indicated a large number of possible variants of this missile. These included variants in warheads, variants in the second stage as well as variants in the booster stage. Our estimates of the range with a 3000 kg warhead varied from 6300 km to 7800 km depending on the configuration. These ranges are significantly lower than the ranges of 12000 km and 13000 km reported for the DF-5 and the DF-5A in the literature. We believe that the DF-5 is not a two stage missile as is commonly reported but actually a three-stage missile. We also believe based on measurements and analysis that the interface between the warhead portion and the second stage is sufficiently large to accommodate a small liquid rocket engine that would comfortably give the DF-5 and the DF-5A the range of 12000 to 13000 km reported in the literature. This is a finding that does not seem to be well-known. A possible configuration for this upper stage has also been worked out. Our study also worked out a procedure for independently trying to estimate the number of DF-5 missiles produced by China. The JL-1 is China’s first Submarine Launch Ballistic Missile (SLBM). Our study revealed that there are at least four kinds of JL-1 (DF-21) missiles with different lengths. All of them use the same first and second stages but are equipped with different warheads. The literature only talks of two variants whereas we find at least four different configurations using our method. Though our measurements of length and diameter as well as liftoff weights match well with the published information our estimate of the range of the JL-1 / DF-21 is higher. The range that we get for the JL-1 is 3073 km with a 700 kg payload. Recent images of the DF-21 are those of the canister and not of the actual missile. Some of these images were also analysed to get some idea of some of the dimensions of the missile. There are also many images of the advanced SLBM of China called the JL-2. A land based mobile variant