WESTERN AUSTRALIAN PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY Western Australian State Election 2001 Election Papers Series No. 2 / 2001 PARLIAMENT OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA WESTERN AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION 2001 by Antony Green for the Western Australian Parliamentary Library Western Australian Parliamentary Library Election Papers Series no. 2/2001 June 2001 2001 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent from the Librarian, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the Western Australian Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Western Australian Parliamentary Library. Western Australian Parliamentary Library Parliament House Harvest Terrace Perth WA 6000 ISBN 0 7307 6101 0 June 2001 The Author Antony Green is the Election Analyst for ABC Television, and has worked for the ABC on every Federal, State and Territory election since 1989. He has prepared numerous publications on electoral matters for the New South Wales and Queensland Parliamentary Libraries, and writes regularly on politics and electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in Politics. Related Publications • Western Australian State Elections 1996 by Antony Green. Election papers series 1/2001. WESTERN AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION 10 February 2001 CONTENTS Introduction 1 Legislative Assembly Results Summary of Legislative Assembly Election 5 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division 8 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results 22 Regional Summaries 28 Analysis of Preferences in the Legislative Assembly 30 Legislative Council Results Summary of Legislative Council Election 35 Detail of Result by Region 38 Comparison of Assembly and Council Vote 44 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero *SittingMPs .… ‘Ghost’ candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election Party Abbreviations (blank) Non-affiliated candidates ALPAustralian Labor Party CDPChristian Democratic Party CLA Curtin Labor Alliance (+) DEM Australian Democrats GRN The Greens (WA) IND Independents LFF Liberals for Forests (+) LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party ONPPauline Hanson’s One Nation OTH Others SEN Seniors Party (+) (+) Denotes parties not registered with the Western Australian Electoral Commission. Important Dates Issue of Writs 10 January 2001 Close of Rolls 18 January 2001, 6:00pm Close of Nominations 19 January 2001, 6:00pm Lodgment of Council Ticket Votes 22 January 2001, 6:00pm Polling Day 10 February 2001 Close of Receipt for Postal Votes 13 February 2001 Last day for Return of Writs 9 March 2001 Western Australian State Election 2001 INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the 2001 Western Australian election. It contains details of voting for all Legislative Assembly districts, initial analysis of Assembly preference flows, as well as summaries of voting for the Legislative Council. For each Legislative Assembly electorate, details of the total primary and two-candidate preferred vote are provided. Where appropriate, a two-party preferred count is also included. The format for the results is as follows: First Count: For each candidate, the total primary vote received is shown. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the 1996 election from the percentage received at the 2001 election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the 1996 election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by “….”) have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. All formal votes that did not indicate a preference for the final two candidates are included in the total listed as exhausted. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for a candidate by the total votes remaining in the count, that is the formal votes minus the total of exhausted votes. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the results of the 1996 election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the 1996 election (eg Alfred Cove), a ghost candidate appears, and three swing figures are shown. Separate two-party preferred counts are also included in several electorates. Exhausted Votes Under the WA Electoral Act, ballot papers with a valid first preference vote, but with duplicate numbering in subsequent preferences, remain in the count as formal votes. This type of vote is often termed a ‘Langer’ vote, after the political activist who advocated voting in this manner when the same formality rules applied for Commonwealth elections. During the distribution of preferences, it will not always be possible to determine the next available preference for ballot papers with duplicate preference numbering. As a result, these votes are set aside as ‘exhausted’ preferences at the point in the count where the next available preference cannot be determined. They are not counted towards the final two-candidate preferred count for an electorate. After the distribution of preferences, a candidate is declared elected if he or she receives 50% of the votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote less the total number of exhausted preferences. Note that where both two-candidate and two-party preferred counts are provided for an electorate, the total number of exhausted votes may be different for the two counts. In the result tables, two-candidate and two-party preferred percentages are calculated as a percentage of votes remaining in the count. An exhausted vote total is also shown, along with a percentage exhausted vote, calculated by dividing the total exhausted vote by the formal vote. Two-Candidate Preferred versus Two-Party Preferred Results The two-candidate preferred count for an electorate is defined as the final tally after the exclusion and distribution as preferences of votes from all other candidates. At each stage of the count, the candidate with the least votes is excluded, and his or her votes are distributed to candidates remaining in the count based on the voter's preferences as filled in on the ballot paper. To achieve victory, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote remaining in the count, though in electorates where a candidate achieves victory either on the primary vote or before the final distribution of preferences, a two-candidate preferred count is carried out in full for information purposes. The two-party preferred count represents a distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition. Candidates are again excluded 1 Western Australian State Election 2001 based on lowest progressive vote, though at some points the second lowest candidate is excluded to retain candidates representing Labor and the Coalition. In most cases, the two-party preferred count will be the same as the two-candidate preferred count. However, at the 2001 election, the final distribution of preferences in 11 electorates did not represent a two-party preferred contest, and in most of these electorates, the West Australian Electoral Commission carried out additional two-party preferred counts for information purposes. Two-party preferred votes and percentages are familiar in Australian election analysis from their use in electoral pendulums to show the relative safety of seats, and also to illustrate the notional swing required in marginal seats for a change of government. A statewide two-party preferred count, calculated by summing the two-party preferred counts in individual electorates, has often been used to measure any discrepancy between seats won and votes received by governments and oppositions. However, it must be stressed that the two-candidate preferred count is the real result in each electorate. Given that 11 electorates did not finish as a two-party contest, analysis of the statewide two-party preferred totals is a theoretical exercise not connected with the actual decisions made by voters in electorates. A table of statewide two-party preferred results is provided on pages 22-23, and for comparison purposes, a statewide two-candidate preferred count has also been calculated. In the following electorates, the assumptions made to create a two-party preferred vote need some explanation. Alfred Cove: The Labor Party did not nominate a candidate for the 2001 election, and the two- candidate preferred contest took place between Liberal Party candidate Doug Shave and Liberals for Forests candidate Janet Woollard. The Western Australian Electoral Commission (WAEC) also conducted a distribution of preferences between Shave and Independent Denise Brailey, and this count has been adopted as the notional two-party preferred count in the relevant tables. As an independent also finished second at the 1996 election, the WAEC's 1996 two-party preferred count is used where appropriate. Armadale: The Liberal Party did not nominate a candidate