Wesleyan University The Honors College Explaining the Sizes of National Legislatures by Daniel Dreyfus Class of 2017 A thesis submitted to the faculty of Wesleyan University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Arts with Departmental Honors from the College of Social Studies Middletown, Connecticut April, 2017 i Contents List of Figures and Tables............................................................................................ iv Chapter I................................................................................................................... iv Chapter II ................................................................................................................. iv Chapter III ................................................................................................................ iv Chapter IV ................................................................................................................. v Chapter V .................................................................................................................. v Appendix A ............................................................................................................... v Appendix C ............................................................................................................... v Appendix D ............................................................................................................... v Appendix E ............................................................................................................... v Appendix F............................................................................................................... vi I: Introduction and Overview ........................................................................................ 1 Legislatures and Legislature Size ............................................................................. 1 What is Legislature Size? ...................................................................................... 2 The Consequences of Legislature Size ..................................................................... 3 Public Choice: Legislative Productivity ............................................................... 4 Public Choice: Distributive Politics ...................................................................... 7 Explaining the Sizes of National Legislatures ........................................................ 11 Research Design...................................................................................................... 16 II: Factors Potentially Associated with Legislature Size ............................................ 19 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 19 Scope of Analysis: States, Legislatures, and Chambers ......................................... 19 Overview and Explanation of Variables ................................................................. 21 Static versus Dynamic Relationships .................................................................. 21 Population ........................................................................................................... 25 Electoral System ................................................................................................. 27 ii Continent ............................................................................................................. 32 Date of Formation ............................................................................................... 35 GDP per Capita ................................................................................................... 37 Form of Government........................................................................................... 39 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 46 III: Static and Dynamic Analyses ............................................................................... 47 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 47 Static Analysis ........................................................................................................ 48 Summary Statistics.............................................................................................. 48 Results ................................................................................................................. 51 Discussion ........................................................................................................... 55 Dynamic Analysis ................................................................................................... 60 Summary Statistics.............................................................................................. 60 Results ................................................................................................................. 61 Discussion ........................................................................................................... 65 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 66 IV: The American Model ............................................................................................ 68 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 68 The Growth Phases, 1789-1921 .............................................................................. 71 Phase 1: Rapid Growth, 1789-1843 .................................................................... 72 Phase 2: Slow Growth, 1843-1873 ..................................................................... 75 Phase 3: No State Loses a Seat, 1873-1921 ........................................................ 78 Phase 4: The Size Is Fixed, 1921-1929 ................................................................... 81 Overview ............................................................................................................. 81 The First Debate, 18-19 January 1921 ................................................................ 84 The Second Debate, 14 October 1921 ................................................................ 88 Why 435? ............................................................................................................ 89 Subsequent Developments ...................................................................................... 91 iii Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 93 V: The British Model .................................................................................................. 98 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 98 Phase 1: Growth of the Commons under the Tudors and Stuarts, 1510-1679 ...... 101 Incorporation of Scotland and Ireland, 1707-8 and 1801-2 .................................. 107 Phase 2: Reform and Redistribution without Reduction, 1832-1867 ................... 111 Phase 3: Growth since 1885 .................................................................................. 115 Conclusion and Aftermath .................................................................................... 120 VI: Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 124 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................... 128 Appendix and Data Availability Guide..................................................................... 129 Appendix A: Additional Variable Discussion .......................................................... 130 Electoral System: Mathematical Definition .......................................................... 130 Date of Formation: Challenges of Operationalization .......................................... 131 Form of Government: Objective and Subjective Criteria ..................................... 134 Appendix C: Static Analysis Regressions................................................................. 138 Appendix D: Apportionment of the House of Representatives ................................ 144 Appendix E: Positions on the Size of the House of Representatives in 1921 ........... 165 H.R. 14498 (18-19 January 1921)......................................................................... 165 H.R. 7882 (14 October 1921) ............................................................................... 167 Appendix F: Constituencies of the House of Commons since 1509 ........................ 170 Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 197 iv List of Figures and Tables Chapter I • Figure 1.1: The Law of 1/n 9 • Figure 1.2: Lower House Size of U.S. State Legislatures in 1889 and 1969 13 • Figure 1.3: Linear Regression of the Logarithm of Lower House Size in U.S. State Legislatures 14 • Figure 1.4: Linear Regression of the Logarithm of Lower House Size in National Legislatures 14 Chapter II • Figure 2.1: The Relationship between Continent and Date of Formation 37 • Table 2.1: States That No Longer Exist in Bormann and Golder 24 • Table 2.2: The Six Continents