Theme [SST.2011.4.1-3] Development of the Future Rail System to Reduce the Occurrences and Impact of Derailment Development of the Future Rail Freight System to Reduce the Occurrences and Impact of Derailment D-RAIL Grant Agreement No.: 285162 FP7 – THEME [SST.2011.4.1-3] Project Start date: 1 October 2011 Duration: 36 months D2.1 Rail Freight Forecast to 2050 Due Date of Deliverable: 31 July 2012 Actual Submission Date: 31July 2012 Work Package No.: WP2 Dissemination Level: PU Status: Final Name Organisation Leader of the deliverable: Arnaud Burgess PANTEIA Prepared by Arnaud Burgess PANTEIA Dewan Islam UNEW Konstantina Laparidou PANTEIA Olaf Lagewerf PANTEIA Phil Mortimer UNEW Ross Jackson UNEW Pat Scott UNEW Verified by Maciej Tumasz UNEW Cristian Ulianov UNEW Anders Ekberg CHALM Dissemination Level PU Public PU PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) Copyright by the D-RAIL Consortium Final Version (PU) 1 (98) D-RAIL D2.1 Rail Freight Forecast to 2050 D-RAIL consortium 1. UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE UNEW United Kingdom 2. UNION INTERNATIONALE DES CHEMINS DE UIC France FER 3. RAIL SAFETY AND STANDARDS BOARD RSSB United Kingdom LIMITED 4. TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAET WIEN VUT Austria 5. PANTEIA BV PANTEIA Netherlands 6. CHALMERS TEKNISKA HOEGSKOLA AB CHALM Sweden 7. POLITECNICO DI MILANO POLIM Italy 8. THE MANCHESTER METROPOLITAN MMU United Kingdom UNIVERSITY 9. LUCCHINI RS SPA LUCC Italy 10. MER MEC SPA MERM Italy 11. FAIVELEY TRANSPORT ITALIA SPA FAIV Italy 12. TELSYS GMBH TELS Germany 13. OLTIS GROUP AS OLT Czech Republic 14. VYZKUMNY USTAV ZELEZNICNI AS VUZ Czech Republic 15. DEUTSCHE BAHN AG DB Germany 16. HARSCO RAIL LIMITED HARS United Kingdom 17. SCHWEIZERISCHE BUNDESBAHNEN SBB SBB Switzerland AG 18. OBB-Infrastruktur AG OBB Austria 19. SOCIETE NATIONALE DES CHEMINS DE SNCF France FER FRANCAIS 20. TRAFIKVERKET - TRV TRV Sweden Final version (PU) 2 (98) D-RAIL D2.1 Rail Freight Forecast to 2050 Document History Version Date Modification Reason Modified By V0 12.04.2012 First draft – Initial draft version Panteia & UNEW Revised final draft – Update of Chapters V1 05.06.2012 Panteia & UNEW 7, 8 and 9 V2 27.07.2012 Revised final draft from Peer Review Panteia & UNEW V3 31.07.2012 Accepted Dr Dewan Islam UNEW V4 16.08.2012 Second peer review Panteia & UNEW F1 14.09.2012 Revised final draft UNEW Final version (PU) 3 (98) D-RAIL D2.1 Rail Freight Forecast to 2050 Executive Summary The “Development of the Future Rail Freight System to Reduce the Occurrences and Impact of Derailment” (D-RAIL) project is aimed at identifying root causes of derailment for freight vehicles, based on freight traffic and other parameters such as the range in loads, speed and maintenance quality. The project also investigates how combined or independent minor incidents could cause a derailment. Analysis is extended to include the expected future freight demand up to 2050 and advancements such as heavier axle loads, new vehicle designs, longer trains and faster speeds. Based on a set of alarm limits, D-RAIL assesses current technologies and indicates the requirements for future monitoring systems. Work Package (WP2) of the D-RAIL project aims to evaluate current and future trends of the railway freight system considering current and intended European Rail Policy and emerging technologies and operations. More specifically, this WP assesses future trends, up to 2050, of freight movement and loading looking at both the logistical and economic aspects. Then, based on freight projections, specifies rolling stock breakdown in terms of type, model and operational conditions. Finally, it explores a variety of interventions in rail operations from the costs and benefit perspective. This deliverable (D2.1) is the first step of the WP2 analysis and focuses on describing the future levels of rail freight demand for three scenarios: the Reference scenario with no change from the current rail system in infrastructure, policies and other trends, and two White Paper scenarios (High and Low), which describe how rail demand will develop through implementation of the White Paper guidelines assuming both a full and partial modal shift to rail. The scenario parameters were identified through the study of existing reports on rail developments then the White Paper policy options were applied to the Reference scenario as meta-models deriving the freight demand for all three scenarios. Results were analysed from the demand, modal split and commodity perspective. Specifically, the Reference and Low scenarios demonstrate similar results in terms of growth and modal split as the Low scenario increases demand up to 2050 by less than 20%. The High scenario results are quite differentiated as additional demand almost doubles the 2050 Reference values. Finally, the rail sector experiences a commodity shift from the road demand (mainly foodstuffs, building and transport materials). Final version (PU) 4 (98) D-RAIL D2.1 Rail Freight Forecast to 2050 Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Glossary......................................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 7 2. Overview of past and on-going studies................................................................................................. 9 2.1. Most relevant projects .................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1. NEWOPERA ........................................................................................................................ 9 2.1.2. CREAM .............................................................................................................................. 10 2.1.3. TIGER ................................................................................................................................ 10 2.1.4. MARATHON ........................................................................................................................ 11 2.1.5. RETRACK ........................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.6. SPECTRUM ....................................................................................................................... 12 2.1.7. SAIL ................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2. Partly relevant projects ................................................................................................................. 13 2.2.1. TRANSVISIONS ................................................................................................................ 13 2.2.2. TEN-CONNECT ................................................................................................................. 13 2.2.3. FREIGHTVISION ............................................................................................................... 13 2.2.4. High Oil Price (HOP) .......................................................................................................... 13 2.3. Not relevant projects .................................................................................................................... 14 2.4. White Paper of Transport ............................................................................................................. 14 3. Main trends and assumptions of D-RAIL ............................................................................................ 15 3.1. Main Assumptions ........................................................................................................................ 15 3.1.1. GDP ................................................................................................................................... 16 3.1.2. Oil prices ............................................................................................................................ 17 3.1.3. Population .......................................................................................................................... 17 3.1.4. Other trends ....................................................................................................................... 18 3.2. Further system parameters .......................................................................................................... 19 3.2.1. Transport and Logistics ...................................................................................................... 19 3.2.2. Rail sector developments .................................................................................................. 23 3.2.3. Conclusions of rail sector developments ........................................................................... 27 4. Description of modelling methodology ...............................................................................................