Southeastern Connecticut Council of Governments Regional Plan of Conservation and Development 2017 REGIONAL PLAN OF CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT Southeastern Connecticut Council of Governments 5 Connecticut Avenue, Norwich, CT 06360 Certification of Adoption This plan was adopted at a legally convened meeting of the Southeastern Connecticut Council of Governments on November 15, 2017. __________________________________________ Ron McDaniel, Chairman The preparation of this document was financed in part by grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, the Connecticut Department of Transportation, the Connecticut Office of Policy and Management, and by contributions from the member municipalities of the Southeastern Connecticut Council of Governments. The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the Southeastern Connecticut Council of Governments and do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the funding agencies. Southeastern Connecticut Council of Governments Representatives: Alternates: Glenn Pianka, First Selectman, Bozrah John Burt, Town Manager, Town of Groton Art Shilosky, First Selectman, Colchester (Treasurer) Timothy Sharkey, Senior Burgess, Jewett City Mark Nickerson, First Selectman, East Lyme (Secretary) John Salomone, City Manager, Norwich Richard Matters, First Selectman, Franklin Denise Dembinski, Selectman, Sprague Kevin Skulczyck, First Selectman, Griswold Jim Rivers, Town Manager, Windham Keith Hedrick, Mayor, City of Groton Bruce Flax, Mayor, Town of Groton Tribal Liaisons: Alan Geer, Warden, Jewett City Rodney Butler, Chairman, Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Betsy Petrie, First Selectman, Lebanon Council Fred Allyn, III, Mayor, Ledyard Kevin Brown, Chairman, Mohegan Tribe Thomas Sparkman, First Selectman, Lisbon Ron McDaniel, Mayor, Montville (Chairman) Military Liaisons: Michael Passero, Mayor, New London CAPT Paul Whitescarver, USN, Commanding Officer, US Shawn Murphy, First Selectman, North Stonington Naval Submarine Base Deberey Hinchey, Mayor, Norwich (Vice Chairman) RADM James Rendon, USCG, Superintendent, US Coast Robert Congdon, First Selectman, Preston Guard Academy Kevin Lyden, First Selectman, Salem Catherine Osten, First Selectman, Sprague Staff: Rob Simmons, First Selectman, Stonington James S. Butler, AICP, Executive Director Jeffrey Callahan, Warden, Stonington Borough Amanda Kennedy, AICP, Daniel Steward, First Selectman, Waterford Assistant Director/Director of Special Projects Ernie Eldridge, Mayor, Windham Richard C. Serra, Senior Planner Kate Rattan, AICP, Senior Planner Liz Crutcher, GIS Coordinator Sam Alexander, Planner II Wendy Leclair, Office Manager Regional Plan of Conservation and Development Steering Committee Council of Governments Representatives: Regional Planning Commission Representatives: Marian Galbraith, City of Groton Mike Cherry, Ledyard Mark Nickerson, East Lyme Ronald Giroux, Lisbon Kevin Lyden, Salem Elaine Boissevain, North Stonington Neal Beets, Windham Cover photos: New London Fire Department, USS Nautilus, Shore at Harkness State Park, Ponemah Mills, Residential unknown, downtown New London, Unknown farm, Lisbon Landing, Willimantic Frog Bridge. All photos SCCOG staff except USS Nautilus, Wikimedia Commons user Victor-ny. Rev. 10/13/17 (future land use map) CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................... 13 About the Southeastern Connecticut Council of Governments ....................................................................................... 14 Southeastern Connecticut Today .......................................................................................................................................... 15 Population Growth and Distribution ................................................................................................................................. 15 Existing Land Use .............................................................................................................................................................. 20 Trends in Development ..................................................................................................................................................... 31 The People of Southeastern Connecticut ............................................................................................................................. 32 Age .................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Household Size .................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Diversity ............................................................................................................................................................................ 34 Migration Patterns ............................................................................................................................................................ 37 Educational Attainment .................................................................................................................................................... 39 Income .............................................................................................................................................................................. 40 Employment Status ........................................................................................................................................................... 41 Projected Population Growth and Decline ....................................................................................................................... 42 Projected Increase in Older Adults ................................................................................................................................... 45 Decline in Children ............................................................................................................................................................ 47 Economy ................................................................................................................................................................................ 48 Current Employment......................................................................................................................................................... 48 Projected Employment Growth ........................................................................................................................................ 51 Housing ................................................................................................................................................................................. 53 Types of Housing ............................................................................................................................................................... 53 Age of Housing .................................................................................................................................................................. 54 Housing Production ........................................................................................................................................................... 55 Housing Tenure ................................................................................................................................................................. 57 Income-Restricted Affordable Housing ............................................................................................................................. 62 Racially and Ethnically Concentrated Areas of Poverty .................................................................................................... 63 Future Demand for Housing.............................................................................................................................................. 65 Fiscal Conditions ................................................................................................................................................................... 68 Municipal Bond Ratings .................................................................................................................................................... 68 Property Taxes .................................................................................................................................................................. 69 Education Spending .......................................................................................................................................................... 71 Municipal Indebtedness .................................................................................................................................................... 72 Transportation & Mobility .................................................................................................................................................... 73 Travel Behavior ................................................................................................................................................................