Energy dependency, the potential supply of renewable energies and the political responses in Turkey in the decades since the oil-crisis Dissertation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Dr. phil. at the Institute for Political Sciences of the Technical University of Darmstadt Dissertation of Melek Akca Prill First supervisor: Prof. Dr. Michèle Knodt Second supervisor: Prof. Dr. Markus Lederer Darmstadt, 2019 Akca Prill, Melek: Energy dependency, the potential supply of renewable energies and the political responses in Turkey in the decades since the oil-crisis, Technical University of Darmstadt Year of publication of Dissertation at TUprints: 2020 Day of disputation: 18.12.2019 Published under CC BY 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ ii Declaration of Authorship I hereby declare that the thesis submitted is my own unaided work. All direct or indirect sources used are acknowledged as references. I am aware that the thesis in digital form can be examined for the use of unauthorized aid and in order to determine whether the thesis as a whole or parts incorporated in it may be deemed as plagiarism. For the comparison of my work with existing sources I agree that it shall be entered in a database where it shall also remain after examination, to enable comparison with future theses submitted. Further rights of reproduction and usage, however, are not granted here. This paper was not previously presented to another examination board and has not been published. Melek Akca Prill Istanbul, 12.10.2019 iii ABSTRACT The transition to post-fossil future and widespread utilization of renewable energy technologies have become inevitable across the globe, not only due to limited amount of fossil energy sources, but also the impacts of human-dominated activities on the planet Earth. Turkey, is one of the countries, having scant amount of fossil energy, but rich in various renewable sources with the sufficient capacity to contribute Turkey’s primary energy goals; such as diminishing energy dependency, increasing supply security and diversification of energy sources. Nevertheless, the country is still highly dependent on natural gas and crude-oil imports to meet its growing energy hunger as a result of economic and demographic expansion as well as the insufficient implementation of the energy efficiency technologies. The rising energy imports and therewith the current account deficit put a big burden on country’s vulnerable economy. Turkish government plans to raise the share of renewable energy sources in electricity production to at least 30% by 2023. The calculations show that geothermal power and biomass-based energy production will achieve the 2023 targets, while solar energy installations remain insufficient in number. Wind- and hydropower with their high potential and adequate number of proposed facilities will contribute to the total electricity generation in considerable amount. The public awareness and social acceptance of utilization renewable energy plants have positive impacts to the gradual development of these plants. iv PREFACE The thesis „Energy dependency, the potential supply of renewable energies and the political responses in Turkey in the decades since the oil-crisis” is made up as a completion of the doctoral studies in political science between 2012-2018. The research interest in the field of Energy Politics of Turkey has initially emerged during my master studies in Turkey and Germany. After my graduation in Master of Arts in European Studies in the field of Turkey and the European Union Energy Politics, I decided to put more emphasis on the role and potential of renewable energies for diminishing the external energy dependency of Turkey, and herewith started my doctoral studies. With its unique geographical situation and abundant amount of renewable energy sources, Turkey has a very special geostrategic position between East and West. Therefore, energy plays a major role for the country in accomplishing its foreign policy goals. From the time I started my research until I finished it, no major changes have been taken place in country’s energy policy goals and strategies. The country is still highly dependent on fossil fuel energy sources, ultimately energy imports, and has scant capacity of using its renewable energy sources such as wind, hydro, geothermal and biomass. In its foreign policy, there had been significant changes, which dramatically influenced country’s relationships with its neighbour countries as well as its energy cooperation and pipeline agreements. Not only externally, the country experience significant internal political challenges and serious economic instabilities. During these vicissitudes concerning internal and external affairs of Turkey, analysing their impacts on country’s energy policy have been interesting as well as quite challenging. In this context, it would have not been possible to write this thesis without the guidance and invaluable contributions of my previous advisor Prof. Dr. Elmar Altvater. I feel indebted for his generosity in sharing his time, as well as his continued support and patience in each stage of my thesis. Furthermore, I am very thankful to my current advisor, Prof. Dr. Michèle Knodt, for her gracious support and time, her supervision and to review my thesis. Finally, my gratitude goes also to my mother and father for their encouragement and trust in me. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................................................... IV PREFACE ........................................................................................................................................................... V TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................................................... 1 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF MAPS ................................................................................................................................................... 6 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................. 7 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 9 1.1. RESEARCH FRAMEWORK .................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2. HYPOTHESIS ...................................................................................................................................................... 13 1.3. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................................ 17 1.4. CONTENT OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................................................... 18 2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND THE ENERGY ERAS ........................................................ 19 2.1. PRE-FOSSIL ENERGY ERA ............................................................................................................................... 19 2.2. FOSSIL ENERGY ERA ........................................................................................................................................ 22 2.3. POST-FOSSIL ENERGY ERA ............................................................................................................................. 37 3. CONVENTIONAL ENERGY SOURCES OF TURKEY ...................................................................... 40 3.1. OIL ...................................................................................................................................................................... 40 3.1.1. Oil Pipelines .............................................................................................................................................. 44 3.1.2. Political Conflicts and Turkey-Cyprus-Israel Energy Triangle .......................................... 49 3.2. NATURAL GAS ................................................................................................................................................... 54 3.2.1. The Proportion of Natural Gas Imports in Turkey’s Energy Dependency ..................... 56 3.2.2. Transmission and Pricing System of Natural Gas in Turkey .............................................. 60 3.2.3. Natural Gas Pipeline Network in Turkey .................................................................................... 63 3.2.4. The Contribution of Liquefied Natural Gas ................................................................................ 81 3.2.5. Underground Natural Gas Storage Capacity of Turkey ........................................................ 83 3.3. COAL ................................................................................................................................................................... 87 3.3.1. Hard Coal .................................................................................................................................................