CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA DURING THE PAST MILLENNIUM S. St. George1, T.W. Anderson2, D. Forbes1, C.F.M. Lewis1, E. Nielsen3 and L.H. Thorleifson1 1 Geological Survey of Canada 2 Canadian Museum of Nature 3 Manitoba Geological Survey 300 200 100 0 -100 Annual Precipitation Anomaly (mm) -200 -300 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year (AD) FINAL REPORT Climate Change Action Fund Environment Canada June 2001 CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA DURING THE PAST MILLENNIUM S. St. George1, T.W. Anderson2, D. Forbes3, C.F.M. Lewis3, E. Nielsen4 and L.H. Thorleifson5 1 Geological Survey of Canada, 360-1395 Ellice Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3G 3P2 2 Canadian Museum of Nature, P. O. Box 3443, Station D, Ottawa ON K1P 6P4 3 Geological Survey of Canada (Atlantic), P. O. Box 1006, Dartmouth NS B2Y 4A2 4 Manitoba Geological Survey, 360-1395 Ellice Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3G 3P2 5 Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth Street, Ottawa ON K1A 0E8 FINAL REPORT Climate Change Action Fund Environment Canada June 2001 Corresponding Author Dr. Erik Nielsen, Manitoba Geological Survey, 360-1395 Ellice Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3G 3P2; Telephone 204- 945-6506; Fax 204-945-1406; E-mail: [email protected]. Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................................... 4 2. CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA DURING THE PAST MILLENNIUM ............ 5 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 5 SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES..................................................................................................................................... 5 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH ...................................................................................................... 6 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................................... 7 3. A 591-YR RECORD OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN WINNIPEG .................................................... 8 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 8 METHODS........................................................................................................................................................... 8 The Red River Tree-Ring Network................................................................................................................... 8 Q. macrocarpa Ringwidth Records ............................................................................................................... 11 Climate Records in the Red River Valley....................................................................................................... 15 Ringwidth-Climate Relationships .................................................................................................................. 15 PALEOCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION......................................................................... 17 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................................... 22 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...................................................................................................................................... 22 REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................................... 22 4. PALEOCLIMATIC POTENTIAL OF RINGWIDTH AND DENSITOMETRIC RECORDS FROM THUJA OCCIDENTALIS, PINUS STROBUS AND PINUS RESINOSA IN SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ............................................................................................................... 24 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 24 STUDY AREA..................................................................................................................................................... 24 METHODS......................................................................................................................................................... 25 RESULTS........................................................................................................................................................... 25 Chronology Summary ................................................................................................................................... 25 Ringwidth and Maximum Density Chronologies............................................................................................ 29 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................................... 29 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...................................................................................................................................... 29 REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................................... 29 5. INVESTIGATION OF LAKE WINNIPEG SEDIMENTS ....................................................................... 33 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 33 SETTING ........................................................................................................................................................... 33 METHODS......................................................................................................................................................... 35 Sediment Sampling ....................................................................................................................................... 35 Whole Core Physical Property Analysis and Selection of Cores for Detailed Study........................................ 35 Chronology (Cores 8 and 4).......................................................................................................................... 38 Palynological Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 41 Macrofossil Collection for Paleoecological Analysis and C-14 Dating .......................................................... 41 Particle Grain Size ....................................................................................................................................... 41 Organic Geochemistry.................................................................................................................................. 41 Inorganic Geochemistry................................................................................................................................ 43 RESULTS........................................................................................................................................................... 43 Chronology .................................................................................................................................................. 43 Pollen Stratigraphy and Vegetation History .................................................................................................. 49 Macrofossil Analysis and C-14 Dating .......................................................................................................... 57 Particle Size Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 57 Organic Geochemistry.................................................................................................................................. 57 Inorganic Geochemistry................................................................................................................................ 57 2 SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION.............................................................................................................................. 62 REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................................... 63 6. APPENDIX: PROJECT CONTRIBUTIONS............................................................................................ 64 Publications/Abstracts.................................................................................................................................. 64 Invited Presentations .................................................................................................................................... 64 Websites....................................................................................................................................................... 64 3 1. Executive Summary Our society is adapted to the climate that we have experienced in the past. While we assume that these conditions will continue into the future, unusual climatic conditions, such as the Prairie droughts of the 1930s or the Red River flood of 1997, are tremendously disruptive to our society and economy.