Two States In Need: The Recent Intensification of Turkey-Russia Relations Master Thesis Political Science’ Name: Ferit Bahceci Professor: A. Freyberg-Inan Second Reader: Professor S. Rezaeiejan Title: Two States in Need: The Recent Intensification of Turkey-Russia Relations E-mail: [email protected] Date: 27 January 2017 Ferit Bahceci I Universiteit van Amsterdam TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Research Question and Methodology .................................................................................................. 2 The Syrian War ................................................................................................................................... 3 Russian annexation of Crimea ............................................................................................................. 3 Turkish Stream .................................................................................................................................... 4 Failed coup attempt in Turkey ............................................................................................................. 4 Structure of the thesis .......................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter one: Historic overview of Turkey-Russia relations before 2011 ....................................... 6 1.1 Brief overview of Turkey-Russia relations before 1990 ............................................................... 6 1.2 Russia’s foreign policy in the post-Cold War era.......................................................................... 7 1.3 Turkey’s foreign policy in the post-Cold War era ......................................................................... 9 1.4 Turkey’s foreign policy under the rule of the AKP ..................................................................... 10 1.5 Turkey-Russia relations in the post-Cold War era ...................................................................... 11 1.5.1 Trade, Energy and Tourism .................................................................................................. 11 1.5.2 The Caucasus ........................................................................................................................ 12 1.5.3 Concluding remarks and possible threats ............................................................................. 13 Chapter two: Theoretical Framework .............................................................................................. 15 2.1 Introducing neorealism ................................................................................................................ 15 2.2 Strategic Alliances ....................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.1 Strategic Alliance Definition ................................................................................................ 17 2.2.2 Establishment of Strategic Alliances .................................................................................... 17 2.2.3 Alliance Politics ................................................................................................................... 19 2.3 Propositions ................................................................................................................................. 20 2.3.1 Empirical propositions.......................................................................................................... 21 Chapter three: Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 23 3.1. Part one: The formation phase .................................................................................................... 23 II Ferit Bahceci I Universiteit van Amsterdam 3.1.1 The Russo-Ukraine crisis ..................................................................................................... 23 3.1.2 Relations between Russia and the West after the Ukraine crisis .......................................... 24 3.1.3 Relations between Turkey and Russia after the Ukraine crisis ............................................ 26 3.1.4 The war in Syria ................................................................................................................... 27 3.1.5 The aftermath of the downing of a Russian military jet by the Turkish Air Force .............. 29 3.1.6 The Refugee crisis ................................................................................................................ 31 3.1.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 33 3.2 Part two: Strategic partnership between Turkey and Russia ....................................................... 34 3.2.1 The intensification of Turkey-Russia relations .................................................................... 34 3.2.2 Relations between Turkey and the West after the failed coup ............................................. 35 3.2.3 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 37 3.3 Part three: findings ...................................................................................................................... 38 3.3.1 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 40 Chapter four: Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 43 Literature List ..................................................................................................................................... 45 III Ferit Bahceci I Universiteit van Amsterdam Introduction "Today's loss is linked to a stab in the back delivered to us by accomplices of terrorists. I cannot qualify what happened today as anything else, our plane was shot down on Syrian territory by an air-to-air missile from an F-16. It fell on Syrian territory 4 kilometers from the Turkish border. It was flying at 6,000 meters 1 kilometer from Turkish territory when it was attacked." (Putin, 2015) Speaking at the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi on 24 November 2015, Russian president Putin reacted furious after Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet, near the Turkish-Syrian border. After decades of peaceful cooperation and economic integration, Turkey and Russia were on the brink of a new conflict. Yet, not one year later, on 10 October 2016, Turkey and Russia signed the strategic Turkish Stream pipeline and agreed to resolve the Syrian War (Onis and Yilmaz, 2016). A brief look at the bitter, and conflicting history of Turkey-Russia relations, teaches us how important good relations between Turkey and Russia are for stability in their perspective regions. The purpose of this thesis is to provide an explanation of the recent intensification of Turkey-Russia relations, through the backdrop of the alliance theories brought about by neorealism. In this vein, neorealism is only used as an instrument to help answer the research question. Since security and assessing security plays a central role in the scholarly study of international politics, this study aims to contribute to the realm of alliance literature with a newly investigated case that examines the alternation of conflict and cooperation between Turkey and Russia. The scope of this thesis is limited to the formation of an alliance on the premises that multipolarity has been the structural norm in contemporary international politics. Turkey and Russia are two of the countries that have developed themselves economic and political. Both countries are regional powers whose relation with the West is strained. In addition, both countries are dependent on one another in terms of trade in energy and regional stabilization. However, Turkey-Russia relations have historically been based on competition and great wars (Ozbay, 2011). For more than five centuries the two countries have maintained a complicated relationship. Their opposition during the Cold War is one of many examples of their hostile attitude towards one another. However, despite their differences, a transformation process is now bringing the two countries toward partnership and collaboration, as illustrated by the fact that both countries signed the agreement on Turkish Stream, the construction of an offshore pipeline from Russia to Turkey, on October 10 2016 and by the fact that Turkey and Russia agreed on draft nationwide ceasefire in Syria (Onis and Yilmaz, 2016). The current global economy is stimulating intensifying economic interaction among regional powers. Therefore, it is interesting to examine the recent intensification of Turkey-Russia relations to gain more insight on how emerging powers behave in a multipolar world. Therefore, the recent intensification of Turkey-Russia relations 1 Ferit Bahceci I Universiteit van Amsterdam constitutes a useful case study for examining this transformation and for examining the conditions under which regional powers ally with each other to balance a potential hegemon or instead compete. Research Question and Methodology What explains the recent intensification of Turkey-Russia relations? The scope of the in-depth empirical investigation