CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Volume 14 Issue 3 2013 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies Published since 2000 Volume 14 Issue 3 2013 CA&CC Press® SWEDEN 1 Volume 14 FOUNDEDIssue 3 2013 AND PUBLISHEDCENTRAL ASIA AND THEBY CAUCASUS INSTITUTE INSTITUTE OF FOR CENTRAL ASIAN AND STRATEGIC STUDIES OF CAUCASIAN STUDIES THE CAUCASUS Registration number: 620720-0459 Registration number: M-770 State Administration for Ministry of Justice of Patents and Registration of Sweden Azerbaijan Republic PUBLISHING HOUSE CA&CC Press®. SWEDEN Registration number: 556699-5964 Journal registration number: 23 614 State Administration for Patents and Registration of Sweden E d i t o r i a l C o u n c i l Eldar Chairman of the Editorial Council ISMAILOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 497 12 22; E-mail: [email protected] Murad ESENOV Editor-in-Chief Tel./fax: (46) 70 232 16 55; E-mail: [email protected] Jannatkhan Deputy Editor-in-Chief EYVAZOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 596 11 73; E-mail: [email protected] Kalamkas represents the journal in Kazakhstan (Astana) YESSIMOVA Tel./fax: (7 - 701) 7408600; E-mail: [email protected] Ainura represents the journal in Kyrgyzstan (Bishkek) ELEBAEVA Tel./fax: (996 - 312) 61 30 36; E-mail: [email protected] Saodat OLIMOVA represents the journal in Tajikistan (Dushanbe) Tel.: (992 372) 21 89 95; E-mail: [email protected] Farkhad represents the journal in Uzbekistan (Tashkent) TOLIPOV Tel.: (9987 - 1) 125 43 22; E-mail: [email protected] Ziya KENGERLI represents the journal in Azerbaijan (Baku) Tel.: (+994 - 50) 3006694; E-mail: [email protected] David represents the journal in Armenia (Erevan) PETROSYAN Tel.: (374 - 10) 56 88 10; E-mail: [email protected] Kakhaber ERADZE represents the journal in Georgia (Tbilisi) Tel.: (+995 - 95) 45 82 88; E-mail: [email protected] Sun ZHUANGZHI represents the journal in China (Beijing) Tel.: (86) 10-64039088; E-mail: [email protected] Konrad SCHÄFFLER represents the journal in Germany (Munich) Tel.: (49 - 89) 3003132; E-mail: [email protected] Vladimir MESAMED represents the journal in the Middle East (Jerusalem) Tel.: (972 - 2) 5882332; E-mail: [email protected] Irina EGOROVA represents the journal in the Russian Federation (Moscow) Tel.: (7 - 495) 3163146; E-mail: [email protected] Robert represents the journal in the U.S. (Buffalo, NY) GUANG TIAN Tel: (716) 880-2104; E-mail: [email protected] Rustem represents the journal in Ukraine (Kiev) ZHANGUZHIN Tel.: (380 - 44) 524-79-13; E-mail: [email protected] 2 CENTRAL ASIA AND THEE DCAUCASUS I T O R I A L B O A R DVolume 14 Issue 3 2013 Giuli ALASANIA Doctor of History, professor, Vice Rector of the International Black Sea University (Georgia) Bülent ARAS Doctor, Chair, Department of International Relations, Fatih University (Turkey) Mariam ARUNOVA Doctor of Political Science, leading research associate, Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS (Russian Federation) Garnik ASATRIAN Doctor of Philology, professor, head of the Department of Iranian Studies, Erevan State University (Armenia) Bakyt BESHIMOV Doctor of History, professor, Vice President, American University-Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) Ariel COHEN Doctor, leading analyst, The Heritage Foundation, U.S.A. (U.S.A.) William FIERMAN Doctor of Political Science, Professor of Indiana University (U.S.A.) Paul GOBLE Senior Advisor, Voice of America (U.S.A.) Sergey GRETSKY Doctor, Chair of Central Asian Studies, Foreign Service Institute, U.S. Department of State (U.S.A.) Xing GUANGCHENG Doctor of Political Science, professor, Deputy Director of the Institute for East European, Russian and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (China) Alexander IGNATENKO President, Institute of Religion and Politics, Doctor of Philosophy, specialist in Islamic studies, leading expert of the Institute of Social Systems, Moscow State University, member of the Council for Cooperation with Religious Associations under the Russian Federation President (Russian Federation) Ashurboi IMOMOV Ph.D. (Law), assistant professor, head of the Department of Constitutional Law, Tajik National University (Tajikistan) Lena JONSON Doctor, senior researcher, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (Sweden) Klara KHAFIZOVA Doctor of History, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies, professor at the International Relations and Foreign Policy Department, Kainar University (Kazakhstan) Jacob M. LANDAU Professor of Political Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel) S. Neil MACFARLANE Professor, Director, Center for International Studies, The University of Oxford (Great Britain) Alexei MALASHENKO Doctor of History, professor, Scholar-in-Residence, Ethnicity and Nation-Building Program Co-Chair, The Carnegie Moscow Center (Russian Federation) Abbas MALEKI Doctor, Director General, International Institute for Caspian Studies (Iran) Akira Doctor, History of Central Asia and the Caucasus, Program Officer, The Sasakawa Peace MATSUNAGA Foundation (Japan) Roger N. McDERMOTT Affiliated Senior Analyst, Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen (Denmark) Vitaly NAUMKIN Doctor of History, professor, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies of RF (Russian Federation) Yerengaip OMAROV Professor, Rector of Kainar University, President of the Academy of Natural Sciences, Republic of Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan) Vladimer PAPAVA Doctor of Economics, professor, Rector of the Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University (Georgia) S. Frederick STARR Professor, Chairman, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University (U.S.A.) The materials that appear in the journal do not necessarily reflect the Editorial Board and the Editors’ opinion Editorial Office: CA&CC Press AB Hubertusstigen 9. 97455 Luleå SWEDEN WEB ADDRESS: http://www.ca-c.org © Central Asia and the Caucasus, 2013 © CA&CC Press®, 2013 3 Volume 14 Issue 3 2013 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies Volume 14 Issue 3 2013 IN THIS ISSUE: AFGHANISTAN 2014 Murat CENTRAL ASIA: Laumulin. SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF POST-2014 AFGHANISTAN ............................................................ 7 Konstantin PROBLEM-2014 AND Syroezhkin. CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY ....................................................... 21 Mohammad Darkhor, Saeed Kafi, Seyed Hadi UNITED STATES STRATEGY AND Sadati. AFGHAN NATIONAL SECURITY ................................................. 33 Thomas THE ROAD THROUGH QATAR, A DEAD END? Ruttig. Opportunities Promoting and Hurdles Preventing a Political Solution in Afghanistan that Includes the Taliban ........................................ 42 Pulat BORDER SECURITY OF Makkambaev. THE CENTRAL ASIAN STATES ON THE EVE OF THE ISAF PULLOUT ............................................... 53 Sergey AFGHANISTAN 2014: Masaulov. UNCERTAINTY AND RISKS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN CENTRAL ASIA ......................... 65 4 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Volume 14 Issue 3 2013 Rakhmatullo PASHTUNS Abdulloev. IN AFGHANISTAN’S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE ............................ 74 Kosimsho THE PAKISTANI FACTOR Iskandarov. IN THE AFGHAN CONFLICT ........................................................ 83 Guli IRANIAN-AFGHAN RELATIONS ON Yuldasheva. THE THRESHOLD OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF AMERICAN TROOPS FROM AFGHANISTAN .............................. 97 REGIONAL ECONOMIES Kamilla SOME ASPECTS OF Sheriazdanova, INTERNATIONAL LEGAL REGULATION OF Karlygash ECONOMIC COOPERATION Kondykerova. IN THE SCO ................................................................................ 109 Viktor THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION Budkin. IN THE CIS REGION: BETWEEN CRISES? ............................... 116 Khojimakhmad COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF Umarov. TAJIKISTAN’S TRADE AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AND CHINA ................................................................... 128 Ashot Markosian, Boris ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF Avakian, COUNTRIES IN A STATE OF Elianora ARMED CONFLICT: Matevosian. AN ARMENIAN CASE-STUDY .................................................... 138 REGIONAL POLITICS Mikhail UZBEKISTAN-TURKMENISTAN: Agajanian. A POLE OF MULTIVECTORAL POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA ....................................................................... 159 Rashid IRANIAN PRESIDENTS AND Abdullo. TAJIK-IRANIAN RELATIONS ...................................................... 167 5 Volume 14 Issue 3 2013 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS FOR YOUR INFORMATION The Special Feature section in the next three issues will discuss: The Ferghana Valley: Conflict Potential and Development Prospects Central Eurasia: Politics Today Central Eurasia: Religion in the Sociopolitical Context Contributors please use the following guidelines: — begin articles with a brief abstract of 300-500 words and keywords; — articles should be no less than 3,000 and no more than 6,000 words, including footnotes; — footnotes should be placed at the bottom of each page; if there are references to Internet resources, please give the author’s name, the name of the document, the website address, and the date it was made available, for example, available 2007-04-19; — quotations, names of authors and other information from English-language sources should be duplicated in brackets in the original language, that is, in English; — the article should be divided into sections, including an introduction and conclusion; — the author should include the following personal information: first name, last name, academic