University of South Florida Scholar Commons Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate School November 2017 Cyber Deterrence against Cyberwar between the United States and China: A Power Transition Theory Perspective Yavuz Akdag University of South Florida, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd Part of the Political Science Commons Scholar Commons Citation Akdag, Yavuz, "Cyber Deterrence against Cyberwar between the United States and China: A Power Transition Theory Perspective" (2017). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/6993 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Cyber Deterrence against Cyberwar between the United States and China: A Power Transition Theory Perspective by Yavuz Akdag A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts School of Interdisciplinary Studies College of Arts and Sciences University of South Florida Major Professor: Steven C. Roach, Ph.D. Bernd Reiter, Ph.D. Jongseok Woo, Ph.D. Date of Approval: September 19, 2017 Keywords: Cyberspace, Stuxnet, Level of satisfaction, Parity of Offensive Cyberwar Capability Copyright © 2017, Yavuz Akdag DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this work to my family and my friends who inspired and supported me along the way. My dad and mom, Remzi and Hacer Akdag, have supported me. In particular, I am very thankful to my older brother, Gokhan Akdag, for his guidance and financial assistance. He encouraged me to apply for the scholarship I am currently receiving to pursue graduate studies in the United States. My cousin, Suleyman Akdag, also deserves a profound appreciation for his endless effort to teach me math since my high school years, which played a significant role in where I am currently. I am so grateful to Dr. Nezir Akyesilmen for writing recommendation letters when I needed. He also inspired me to focus on cyber aspect of International Relations. I would also like to express my gratitude to Mrs. Linda Boyette, for her tremendous help with all kinds of issues facing me since I started my degree. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my friend, Marleni Castillo, for her encouragement during the thesis process. This accomplishment could never have been possible without support I received. ACKNOWLEDGEMNTS First, I would like to express my very profound gratitude to Dr. Steven Roach for being my thesis advisor and helping me navigate the writing process. He patiently corrected my writing/language mistakes and, then, gently encouraged me to see them on my own. He steered me in the right direction and helped me broaden my perspective. With his invaluable feedback and wisdom, I deeply believed that the quality of this work has substantially increased. He was also very perceptive, considerate, and helpful with the issues I came across along the way. I would like to thank Dr. Bernd Reiter for being willing to be on the thesis committee and to help me with any sort of questions I had. He even let me borrow one of his research books so that I could have an additional insight into how to do research. I am very grateful to him for his help and contribution to this paper. I am also thankful to Dr. Jongseok Woo for being on the committee and his contribution to this project. I must also express my gratitude to Ph.D. candidate Nathan Barrick for his writing edits and valuable comments on this thesis. His intellectual capacity ignited sparks in my thinking and stimulated me to raise some critical questions, helping me considerably enrich the argument. Thus, I am appreciatively indebted to him for his assistance and contribution to this study. TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ iv Abstract ............................................................................................................................................v Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1 Background of the Problem and Question ...........................................................................1 The Concepts of Classical Deterrence Applied to Cyberspace ...............................4 The Limits of Classical Deterrence for Cyber Application .....................................8 The Policy Gap and Central Argument .............................................................................12 Methodological Framework ..............................................................................................16 The Study Design ..............................................................................................................19 Chapter One: Theoretical Framework ...........................................................................................21 1.0 Introduction to Chapter ................................................................................................21 1.1 Power Transition Theory .............................................................................................21 1.2 Alluding to Classical Deterrence Theory .....................................................................32 1.3 Power Transition versus Classical Deterrence .............................................................34 1.4 The Application of Power Transtion Theory to Cyber Deterrence against .................... Cyberwarfare......................................................................................................................37 Chapter Two: Academic Discussion on Cyber Deterrence ...........................................................39 2.0 Introduction to Chapter ................................................................................................39 2.1 Cyber Deterrence .........................................................................................................39 2.1.1 Deterrence by Denial ....................................................................................42 2.1.2 Deterrence by Punishment or Retaliation ....................................................47 2.2 Hurdles to Effective Cyber Deterrence ........................................................................51 2.2.1 Impediments to Deterrence by Punishment or Retaliation ...........................52 2.2.1.1 Attribution Problem .......................................................................53 2.2.1.2 The Problem with Signalling Intention and Capability in the Cyber Venue ........................................................................................59 2.2.1.3 Other Major Challenges to Cyber Deterrence By Retaliation .......61 2.2.1.3.1 The problem of uncertainty about severity and scale of damage from cyberattacks ..........................................61 2.2.1.3.2 The problem of the asymmetric nature of cyberspace ....63 2.2.1.3.3 The problem of diminishing returns on successive cyberattacks .............................................................................65 2.2.1.3.4 The impracticality of the disarmament would-be cyber attackers ...................................................................................67 i 2.2.1.3.5 The problem of third parties engaging in cyberattacks..............................................................................69 2.2.1.3.6 The problem of establishing a threshold to retaliate and the cyber application of conventional deterrence concepts of “broad” and “narrow” deterrence to cyberspace ............................................................................71 2.2.1.3.7 The legal Issues: The problem of proportionately responding to cyberattacks by both cyber and kinetic means, and “dual use” entities .................................................75 2.2.1.3.8 The problem with the increased chance of escalation in cyberspace ...........................................................79 2.2.2. Technological, Legal, and Political/ Diplomatic Hurdles to Deterrence by Denial .......................................................................................81 2.2.2.1. Technological Impediments to Deterrence by Denial ..................81 2.2.2.2 Legal Impediments to Deterrence by Denial ...............................84 2.2.2.2.1 The application of existing international law to cyberspace and legal gray areas at national and international level that hamper cyber deterrence by denial .....85 2.2.2.2.2 Barriers to the initiatives toward establishing cyber-specific rules to deter .....................................................87 2.2.2.3 Political/Diplomatic Issues Complicating Cyber Deterrence by Denial ..............................................................................................93 2.3 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................96 Chapter Three: Conceptual Landscape and Stuxnet ....................................................................100 3.0 Introduction to Chapter ..............................................................................................100 3.1 Defining Cyberspace and Cyberwarfare ....................................................................100