USAID/BURMA USAID/BURMA MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT: MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT: June 2019 June 2019 Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Myanmar Analytical Activity Myanmar Analytical Activity Acknowledgement This report has been written by Kimetrica LLC (www.kimetrica.com) and Mekong Economics (www.mekongeconomics.com) as part of the Myanmar Analytical Activity, and is therefore the exclusive property of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Melissa Earl (Kimetrica) is the author of this report and reachable at [email protected] or at Kimetrica LLC, 80 Garden Center, Suite A-368, Broomfield, CO 80020. The author’s views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. USAID.GOV JUNE 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 JUNE 2019 AT A GLANCE A meeting between ethnic armed organizations was blocked by the Thai military at the request of the Myanmar military, which objected to the presence of non- signatories of the nationwide ceasefire agreement at the meeting. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint announced their intentions to run in the 2020 elections. The National League for Democracy candidate for a contested by-election in Seikkan Township in Yangon Region was declared the winner by the Union Election Commission. The USDP candidate who originally won was accused of lending money to voters and not submitting adequate campaign expenditure documents. The Tatmadaw ceasefire in Kachin and Shan states was extended for a second time. It is now set to expire at the end of August. The Government of Myanmar shut down the Internet in areas affected by fighting in Chin and Rakhine states. The Rakhine State government, local organizations, and international organizations protested the move. Fighting between the Tatmadaw and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army resumed this month in Shan State despite the Tatmadaw’s ceasefire. The seven soldiers who killed 10 Rohingya villagers in 2017 were pardoned by the military and released in November 2018. The soldiers served less than a year of their 10-year sentences. The case was originally investigated by two recently pardoned Reuters journalists, Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo. Government authorities are cracking down on ultranationalist monks: Ashin Wirathu, a leader of the anti-Muslim movement, is to be tried in absentia for sedition charges; nine monks and laypersons in Yangon were arrested after organizing a rally in support of Wirathu; and nationalist monk Pyinya Wuntha was arrested after two years as a fugitive and sent to prison for public mischief. The Government announced a new electricity tariffs scheme. The increase in prices will lower the Government’s spending on subsidies and hopefully attract investment into the electricity sector. Export requirements on timber, rice and other commodities were eased this month, raising concerns that looser export regulations will encourage illegal harvesting of timber and teak. USAID.GOV JUNE 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 2 POLITICS diplomatic channels to stop EAOs and critics of the Tatmadaw. In July 2017, he canceled a Committee for Shan State Unity meeting, and ● At the request of the Myanmar military, last April interfered with the launch event of a the Thai military blocked a meeting report on the humanitarian crisis and human between ethnic armed organizations rights abuses committed by the Myanmar military (EAOs) to discuss the future of the in Karen State.iii Peace Process Steering Team. ● The Karen National Union (KNU) The Thai authorities’ blocking of the meeting skipped an informal meeting attended by highlights the Thai government’s willingness to all National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) follow the Burmese military’s requests. EAOs signatories to discuss the future of the have long used Thailand as a base for political peace process. operations, and the incident underscores the ● The Union Election Commission (UEC) fragility of this dynamic vis-à-vis the improving dismissed an open letter authored by 26 relationships between the two governments. political parties last month that accused the UEC of being biased in favor of the Interference in EAOs’ meetings fuels distrust NLD. between the military and the EAOs, and indicate ● The UEC declared a National League for to stakeholders in the peace process that the Democracy (NLD) candidate the winner Tatmadaw is not really interested in including of the Seikkan Township elections; the non-NCA signatories. An ethnic alliance member USDP candidate was accused of lending and spokesperson who has participated in peace money and not submitting adequate process negotiations told Kimetrica researchers, campaign expenditure documents. that the Tatmadaw informed NCA signatories they could hold their meeting on June 20 and 21 only if non-signatory EAOs–including the Arakan PEACE PROCESS Army (AA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)–did not attend. Military BLOCKED PEACE PROCESS STEERING TEAM spokesperson Brigadier-General Zaw Min Tun MEETING said that the level of trust between the military The Thai military blocked a meeting of NCA and the EAOs would not be damaged by the signatories and non-signatories to be held in situation.iv Chiang Mai, Thailand, on June 8 and 9.i A letter addressed to the Royal Thai Army Headquarters KAREN NATIONAL UNION SKIPS from the Burmese Embassy in Bangkok was INFORMAL PEACE PROCESS DISCUSSION leaked on social media. In the letter, the The KNU did not attend an informal meeting of Brigadier-General objected specifically to the NCA signatories on June 13 and 14. The meeting possible attendance of two non-signatory focused on how best to use the remaining time members, the Kachin Independence Army and before the 2020 elections, and what shape peace Karenni National Progressive Party. The negotiations will take under the next meeting’s aim was to discuss the KNU’s proposal government. to transform the Peace Process Steering Team (PPST) into the Peace Process Consultative At the time, one attendee hypothesized that Meeting, which would also include armed groups KNU’s absence was probably due to a scheduling that did not sign the NCA.ii conflict or misunderstanding between the Government and the KNU.v The KNU later Critics argue the Government’s request directly confirmed the former.vi In light of these reports, violated the right of EAOs’ to gather, and ignored the KNU’s absence may not have been in protest Article 24 of the NCA because it was an attempt of the peace talks. However, the ethnic alliance to limit contact between the parties concerned. member and spokesperson told Kimetrica This is not the first time Khin Zaw used researchers that because the Restoration USAID.GOV JUNE 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 Council of Shan State (RCSS) did attend the talks, ELECTIONS KNU’s absence “was a significant gesture of disunity between the KNU and RCSS.” Both AUNG SAN SUU KYI AND PRESIDENT WIN EAOs suspended ongoing peace and political MYINT TO RUN IN 2020 ELECTION dialogues with the Government. A NLD spokesperson confirmed on June 8 that State Counselor Aung Sang Suu Kyi and the Given recent informal discussions between the incumbent President Win Myint will run in the Government and the KNU and the importance upcoming 2020 general election. The of KNU in the peace process, a lot of attention announcement sparked a debate about Article 64 in the peace process is focused on the KNU. The of the Constitution, which forbids state leaders KNU remains committed to peace negotiations from participating in the party’s activities.viii but in June proposed that the current EAO Although Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint are support mechanism, the PPST, reform itself to allowed to campaign in their own constituencies, include non-signatories. The KNU continues to they are forbidden to conduct nationwide complain that the Tatmadaw and Government canvassing until they step down from their official repeatedly violate provisions of the NCA and positions.ix However, during an interview remains concerned the peace process has made conducted for the MAA project, Nandar Thin, little progress on issues of political substance. A CEO of the New Myanmar Foundation, said that Karen leader explained that the KNU wants to Aung San Suu Kyi can circumvent campaign “present a unified front” of all EAOs in order to restrictions by visiting different states and not cede all control to the Tatmadaw. KNU’s regions in her position as State Counselor. Aung commitment to the peace process remains an San Suu Kyi’s travel in June, however, was largely important measure of its progress. outside of Myanmar, so it is not yet clear if she is using her position to campaign nationally. WA PARTICIPATION IN NEXT PEACE CONFERENCE UEC RESPONDS TO CRITICISM Wa State authorities are currently drafting a The UEC raised campaign budget limits for proposal to submit to the Peace Commission to election candidates. The precise limit is to be negotiate Wa State’s involvement in the next confirmed, but candidates will be able to spend 21st Century Panglong Conference (UPC). The more than the current campaign budget limit of document was prepared with help from China. MMK 10 million (approximately $6,600) in the The UPC date depends on securing the 2020 general election.x The increase is seen as participation of the KNU and RCSS. A foreign particularly beneficial to the Amyotha Hluttaw advisor on pro-democracy and human rights (Upper House) candidates who incur greater movements in Myanmar said that because “the costs due to campaigning over a larger Wa are effectively China’s proxies,” a more geographical area. favorable position for the Wa in the peace process “gives China considerable leverage over Despite this change, it can be argued that further the Tatmadaw.” reform is needed because of limitations on who can contribute to campaign financing and the The proposal comes on the heels of the United difficulties in tracking campaign spending.