Far right in Western Europe: From the margins to the spotlights? An analysis of the factors influencing the public presence of far right in Western Europe Pieternella Jantje (Ellen) Wit, s1592548 Master thesis, final draft Crisis and Security Management, intake February 2015 Supervisor: Dr. Joery Matthys Second reader: Dr. Elke Devroe 30 March 2016 2 3 Table of contents 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 7 2. Theoretical framework ........................................................................................................................ 8 2.1 Concepts ........................................................................................................................................ 8 2.1.1 Far right .................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.2 Public presence..................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Explanatory factors ...................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 Factor 1: the migrant crisis ................................................................................................... 11 2.2.2 Factor 2: quality of life .......................................................................................................... 13 2.2.3 Factor 3: attitudes towards European integration ............................................................... 13 2.2.4 Factor 4: changing image of the parties ............................................................................... 14 3. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 15 3.1 Research design ........................................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Case studies ................................................................................................................................. 15 3.3 Data gathering ............................................................................................................................. 17 3.4 Operationalization ....................................................................................................................... 18 3.4.1 Far right ................................................................................................................................ 19 3.4.2 Public presence..................................................................................................................... 19 3.4.3 Factor 1: the migrant crisis ................................................................................................... 21 3.4.4 Factor 2: quality of life .......................................................................................................... 21 3.4.5 Factor 3: attitudes towards European integration ............................................................... 21 3.4.6 Factor 4: changing image of the parties ............................................................................... 22 3.4.7 Operationalization table ....................................................................................................... 23 4. Analysis .............................................................................................................................................. 24 4.1 Case I: Belgium ............................................................................................................................ 24 4.1.1 Far right public presence ...................................................................................................... 25 4.1.2 Factor 2: quality of life .......................................................................................................... 29 4.1.3 Factor 3: attitudes towards European integration ............................................................... 29 4.1.4 Factor 4: changing image ..................................................................................................... 30 4.1.5 Overview Belgium ................................................................................................................. 31 4.2 Case II: Germany .......................................................................................................................... 32 4.2.1 Far right public presence ...................................................................................................... 32 4 4.2.2 Factor 2: quality of life .......................................................................................................... 36 4.2.3 Factor 3: attitudes towards European integration ............................................................... 36 4.2.4 Factor 4: changing image ..................................................................................................... 36 4.2.5 Overview Germany ............................................................................................................... 38 4.3 Case III: the Netherlands ............................................................................................................. 39 4.3.1 Far right public presence ...................................................................................................... 39 4.3.2 Factor 2: quality of life .......................................................................................................... 41 4.3.3 Factor 3: attitudes towards European integration ............................................................... 42 4.3.4 Factor 4: changing image of the parties ............................................................................... 42 4.3.5 Overview the Netherlands ................................................................................................... 43 4.4 Comparison ................................................................................................................................. 43 4.4.1 Dependent variable: far right public presence ..................................................................... 44 4.4.2 Independent variables: explanatory factors ........................................................................ 46 4.4.3 Interaction between the variables ....................................................................................... 47 5. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 49 5.1 Answering the research question ................................................................................................ 49 5.2 Reflection on results .................................................................................................................... 51 6. Appendices ........................................................................................................................................ 53 Appendix A: List of parties ................................................................................................................. 53 Appendix B: Quality of life ................................................................................................................. 54 Appendix C: Attitudes towards European integration ...................................................................... 58 7. Bibliography ....................................................................................................................................... 61 Books and articles.............................................................................................................................. 61 Consulted websites ........................................................................................................................... 62 Databases and other sources ............................................................................................................ 69 5 List of figures and tables Figures Figure 1 - Far right ideological features................................................................................................. 19 Figure 2 - Number of forcibly displaced people worldwide .................................................................. 21 Figure 3 - The logos of National Front and National Democracy .......................................................... 31 Tables Table 1 - European Social Survey (2002), Round 1 (ed.6.4), displayed in column percentages. .......... 17 Table 2 - European Social Survey (2014), Round 7 (ed. 1.0), displayed in column percentages. ......... 17 Table 3 - Operationalization .................................................................................................................. 23 Table 4 - Belgium: Flemish Interest, public statements ........................................................................ 27 Table 5 - Belgium: Flemish Interest, public presence ............................................................................ 27 Table 6 - Belgium: National Democracy, public presence ..................................................................... 29 Table 7 - Belgium: Quality of life ........................................................................................................... 29 Table 8 - Belgium: Attitudes