Q4 2010 www.businessmonitor.com ALGERIA OIL & GAS REPORT INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 ISSN 1748-3786 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. ALGERIA OIL & GAS REPORT Q4 2010 INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: August 2010 Business Monitor International © 2010 Business Monitor International. 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Algeria Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 Algeria Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010 CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Algeria Energy Market Overview .................................................................................................................... 9 Global Oil Market Review .............................................................................................................................. 12 Drifting With The Tide .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 Quarterly Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Deepwater Turbulence .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Global Oil Market Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 15 Waiting For The Wind To Change ............................................................................................................................................................................ 15 Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook ....................................................................................................... 17 Short-Term Demand Outlook .................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................................................................................................................................................ 18 Short-Term Supply Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................................................................................................................................................................ 19 Longer-Term Supply And Demand ....................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Oil Price Assumptions ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 ................................................................................................................................................................. 21 Table: Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Regional Market Overview ............................................................................................................................ 22 Oil Supply And Demand....................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2007-2014 (000b/d) ........................................................................................................................................ 23 Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2007-2014 (000b/d) ........................................................................................................................................... 24 Oil: Downstream ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2007-2014 (000b/d) ................................................................................................................................ 25 Gas Supply And Demand ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm) ........................................................................................................................................... 26 Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2007-2014 (bcm) .............................................................................................................................................. 27 Liquefied Natural Gas ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2007-2014 (bcm) .................................................................................................................................................. 28 Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 29 Composite Scores................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating .................................................................................................................................. 29 Upstream Scores .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30 Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................................. 30 Algeria Upstream Rating – Overview .................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Algeria Upstream Rating – Rewards ................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Algeria Upstream Rating – Risks ......................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Downstream Scores ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 32 Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................. 32 Algeria Downstream Rating – Overview .............................................................................................................................................................