Uzbekenergo Joint-stock Company The Republic of Uzbekistan PREPARATORY SURVEY (F/S) FOR TASHKENT THERMAL POWER COGENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION PROJECT AND MASTER PLAN STUDY IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN Vol.2 MASTER PLAN STUDY May 2016 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd. Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc. 3R JR 16-021 Table of Contents Table of Contents Location Map List of Figures and Tables Abbreviations Chapter 1 Review of the Power Development Concept 1.1 The content of the power development concept ..................................................... 1-1 1.2 Flow of the power development concept planning ................................................. 1-1 Chapter 2 Fuel Supply Plan 2.1 Review of primary energy ..................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Possibility of natural gas supply for power generation .......................................... 2-6 2.3 Possibility of coal supply for power generation ..................................................... 2-16 2.4 Supply potential of alternative energy .................................................................. 2-24 Chapter 3 Power Development Concept 3.1 Optimal Power Development Concept selection method ........................................ 3-1 3.2 Review conditions ................................................................................................ 3-4 3.2.1 Electricity demand .................................................................................... 3-4 3.2.2 Load duration curve .................................................................................. 3-17 3.2.3 Supply reliability ...................................................................................... 3-18 3.2.4 Power sources determined for development ............................................... 3-18 3.2.5 Existing power plants decommissioning plan ............................................ 3-19 3.2.6 Power sources proposed for development .................................................. 3-21 3.2.7 Fuel price ................................................................................................. 3-22 3.3 Power development scenarios ............................................................................... 3-23 3.4 Result of WASP simulation .................................................................................. 3-23 3.4.1 Comparison of economic efficiency of Power development scenarios ........ 3-14 3.4.2 Gas consumption for power generation ..................................................... 3-16 3.5 Evaluation of Power Development Concept........................................................... 3-29 3.6 Review of Power Development Concept ............................................................... 3-33 i Chapter 4 Network Development Plan 4.1 Study method for planning optimal network development ..................................... 4-1 4.2 Study Condition.................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2.1 Geographical distribution of load and generation ...................................... 4-1 4.2.2 Supply Reliability ..................................................................................... 4-4 4.2.3 Review of Existing Electricity Network Facilities ..................................... 4-5 4.2.4 Uzbekenergo JSC’s network development plan ......................................... 4-11 4.3 Network Analysis ................................................................................................. 4-16 4.3.1 Network analysis condition ....................................................................... 4-16 4.3.2 Network analysis results ........................................................................... 4-18 4.3.3 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 4-27 Chapter 5 Priority Potential Projects 5.1 Outline of thermal power plants in Uzbekistan ...................................................... 5-1 5.2 Overall condition of priority potential project sites ............................................... 5-4 5.2.1 Navoi TPP ................................................................................................ 5-5 5.2.2 Talimardjan TPP ....................................................................................... 5-10 5.2.3 Syrdarya TPP............................................................................................ 5-14 5.2.4 Turakurgan TPP (construction place) ........................................................ 5-19 5.2.5 Tashkent TPP ........................................................................................... 5-22 5.2.6 Angren TPP .............................................................................................. 5-27 5.2.7 Novo-Angren TPP .................................................................................... 5-32 5.2.8 Tashkent CHP........................................................................................... 5-37 5.2.9 Mubarek CHP ........................................................................................... 5-41 5.2.10 Fergana CHP ............................................................................................ 5-45 5.3 Evaluation of priority potential project sites ......................................................... 5-49 5.4 Selection of priority projects................................................................................. 5-52 Chapter 6 Investment Plan 6.1 Investment program, which is based on the power development plan ..................... 6-1 6.2 Financing plan ...................................................................................................... 6-3 ii Chapter 7 Environmental and Social Considerations 7.1 Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) .......................................................... 7-1 7.1.1 Laws, regulations and organizations related to Environmental and Social Considerations .......................................................... 7-1 7.1.2 Relevant organizations ...................................................................................... 7-19 7.1.3 Current Status of Environment and Society ....................................................... 7-21 7.1.4 Examination of alternatives to the power development plan ............................... 7-28 7.1.5 Mitigation measures on assumed environmental and social impacts ................... 7-30 7.1.6 Examination of monitoring structure at the planning stage ................................. 7-31 7.2 Scoping on Priority Projects ................................................................................. 7-32 7.2.1 Outline of priority projects ................................................................................ 7-32 7.2.2 Result of scoping on priority projects ................................................................ 7-33 7.2.3 Recommendation of monitoring structure and monitoring method ..................... 7-35 7.3 Stakeholders’ Meeting .......................................................................................... 7-38 7.3.1 Objective of the Stakeholders’ Meeting ............................................................. 7-38 7.3.2 Result of the Stakeholders’ Meeting .................................................................. 7-38 iii ”Area a” Area a Area b ”Area b” Source: Prepared by JICA Study Team on the basis of materials provided by Uzbekenergo JSC Power network map of the Republic of Uzbekistan LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Chapter 1 Figure 1.2-1 Flow of power development concept planning ........................................................... 1-2 Figure 1.2-2 Flow of network development planning ..................................................................... 1-3 Chapter 2 Figure 2.1-1 Primary energy production and consumption ............................................................. 2-2 Figure 2.1-2 Natural gas production and consumption ................................................................... 2-2 Figure 2.1-3 Primary energy consumption intensity in terms of GDP ............................................. 2-3 Figure 2.1-4 Primary energy consumption structure of neighboring countries by fuel type (%, as of 2013) ................................................................................................................. 2-4 Figure 2.1-5 Fossil fuel reserves structure ...................................................................................... 2-5 Figure 2.1-6 Recoverablef fossil fuel (as of 2012) .......................................................................... 2-6 Figure 2.2-1 Energy supply and demand structure (natural gas) ..................................................... 2-8 Figure 2.2-2 Natural gas demand forecast except to generate power and exports ........................... 2-9 Figure 2.2-3 Prediction of natural gas production ......................................................................... 2-10 Figure 2.2-4 Supply potential of natural gas to generate power and export ................................... 2-12 Figure 2.2-5 Comparison of recoverable years ............................................................................. 2-14 Figure 2.3-1 Coal production, consumption and import................................................................ 2-17 Figure 2.3-2 Comparison of coal production data between