Assist. Prof. Dr. NİDA NAYCI NIKER Workshop MEU, Dep. of Architecture, 16- 17 Dec’12, Restoration &Conservation Centre Tel Aviv and Old Acre, Israel INTEGRATION OF THREAT AND RISK ASSESSMENTS IN ARCHAEOLOGICAL SITE MANAGEMENT RESEARCHES % ICCROM, ICOMOS, UNESCO World Heritage Centre (1998) Management Guidelines for Risk Preparadness for World Heritage Sites % World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Japan,2005) Thematic Session on Cultural Heritage Risk Management % Strategy for Reducing Risks from Disasters at World Heritage Properties (2006) Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Impact assessment: consequences of phenomena, events or decisions. Consequences may be either ‘positive’ or ‘negative’. Negative consequences are identified as hazards or threats. # Condition assessment: to understand the physical situation of a site/structure generally to identify the structural safety # Risk Assessment: to identify the probability of a problem or an event that causes negative impacts by estimating its probable consequences. Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY % Risk Analysis in Archaeological Sites Sustainable management of archaeological sites necessiates estimating risk factors and to mitigate the expected threats and achieve management strategies accordingly. # National level: identify policies and strategies # Regional level: define priority areas in conservation strategies and design financial budgeting # Site Level : achieve its safety and conservation while making it approachable for visitors through site management plans Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY CURRENT SITUATION IN TURKEY Responsible Authorities: -National Level: Ministry of Culture and Tourism -Regional Level: Council on Conservation of Cultural Assets - Local Level: Provincial Administration of Ministry Museums # Other Interest Groups: - Scientific Archaeological Excavation Team (If there is) - Municipalities Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY CURRENT SITUATION IN TURKEY Site management status : -Presented to the visitors by Ministry of Culture and Tourism (with/without archaeological excavation studies) -No site presentation arrangements (without security, visitor management, service facilities) Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Alahan Monestry, Mersin Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY #Archaeological Excavations (past) #Site Presentation & Visitor facilities #Conservation and restoration Alahan Monestry, Mersin Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Archaeological Excavations (past) # Site Presentation & Visitor facilities Anamerium Archaeological Site, Mersin Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Anemurium Archaeological Site, Mersin Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Anemurium Archaeological Site, Mersin Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Impacts Assessments in Archaeological Site Management Anemurium Archaeological Site, Mersin Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # No Archaeological Excavations # No Site Presentation & Visitor facilities # No Conservation studies…! “Villa-Rusticae”:Roman rural compound Kustullu Village- Erdemli, Mersin Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY CURRENT SITUATION IN TURKEY There are rich and diverse archaeological sites. Most of them suffer from lack of integrated risk assessment approaches in national/regional or site scale Ministry of Culture and Tourism High Council on Conservation of Cultural Assets Principle Decision No 35 “Issues regarding Implementations for Immovable Cultural Assets, Conservation Sites and their Impact Zones damaged in Earthquake” Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY AIM OF THE RESEARCH: -Significance of Threat Identification and Risk Assessment studies in Archaeological Site Management - Case-Studies Sedir Island , Mugla Kanlıdivane Archaeological Site in Olba Territorium, Mersin Mugla Mersin Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY CASE-STUDY I RISK ASSESSMENT ON ARCHAEOLOGICAL & NATURAL VALUES OF SEDIR ISLAND, GÖKOVA-MUGLA Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Gökova Specially Protected Area ICZM Plan European Union SMAP III Programme -Project Directorship: Mugla University - Project Partners: Agency for Specially Protected Area Muğla Governorship Local Administration of Culture and Tourism Local Administration of Environment and Forestry Akyaka Municipality Visitors, NGOs, local people Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Flora-Fauna of the Island Larus michahellis (Gümüş Martı) Merops apiaster (Arıkuşu) Upupa epops (İbibik) Euphorbia dendroides L. Juncus acutus L. Lavatera cretica L. Mercuarilis annua L. Malva slyvestris L. Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Cleopatra Beach Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Aim of the study: sustainable management of the island, to survey the threats and assess the vulnerabilities of natural and archaeological values, to identify the critical areas and territorial dangers, to define emergencies and priorities for further studies, to define the necessities for maintenance, conservation and restoration according to the types of problems and sources of threats, to define the control and monitoring system for local and regional administration units Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY IDENTIFICATION OF Proposals Survey & Analysis ASSESSMENTS THREAT GROUPS Management Strategies Visual Detailed Identificationd i of Display of Risk Factors PPriority Zones Monitoring Implementation Integration with Adminis. & Inst. Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Coastal Erosion Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Macro-Vegetation Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Visitor Impacts # Sedir Island attracts 100.000 visitors during summer seasons # Visitor pressures impact both the beach formation and archaeological assets of the island Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Visitor Impacts Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Fire Risks Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # Atmospheric conditions (heavy rainfalls, wave, etc) Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # IDENTIFICATION OF IMPACT CATEGORIES THREATS CATEGORIES SOURCE Impact Coastal Processes Natural Degradation of the archaeological CURRENT remains Climatic conditions Natural Material deteriorations Macro-vegetation Natural Static decays and material (bio-erosion) deteriorations Structural Failures Natural Destruction of remains Visitor Impacts Anthropogenic Erosion of beach formation Degradation of archaeological setting, Environmental pollution Climate Change Natural Acceleration in atmospheric FUTURE conditions as storminess, floods Sea-Level Rise Natural Submergence of remains Fire Anthropogenic Total destruction and loss of SUDDEN- & Natural archaeological and natural setting DISASTER Earthquake Natural Structural destruction of remains Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY # IDENTIFICATION OF RISK FACTORS Impact factor; is the rate of the consequences of the expected threats Physical Condition; state of conservation, damage level and structural safety of a structure Vulnerability; is the susceptibility of a resource against expected hazard or potential impact Risk= f (Impact x Condition x Vulnerability) Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY %Impact factors consequences of the expected threats on archaeological or natural assets: - High Impact (3); total destruction or severe damage of the asset, - Medium Impact (2); structural decay and failures, -Low Impact (1); material deterioration and degradation. % Vulnerability factor exposure of structure or zone section against the threats according to their location or approach condition by the visitors. - High (3); the assets which are exposed to direct impacts of the threats. - Medium (2); the resources which aren’t in direct contact with the source of threat as - Low (1); naturally protected against the sources of the threats Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Risk Assessment Process continuous process to be evaluated during risk preparedness and disaster management Prone-Disaster Post-Disaster Condition Impact Level Assessment damage potential safety evaluation VULNERABILITY Probability/exposure to expected impact Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY % Physical Condition: factor to define priority areas or monuments in risk estimation according to the monumentality of the archaeological assets or rarity of natural assets so that they can be conserved in-situ before they are degraded more or totally destructed. -High Risk (3), Severe damage: destructions and structural cracks -Moderate(2), Moderate damages: partial mdemolishments, material loss - Good (1), Slight damage: Partial material loss, scaling and deterioations Safety Evaluation: to understand causes of damages and decay, evaluation of current level of structural safety Nida NAYCI ▪ Mersin University ▪ Mersin- TURKEY Gökova Specially Protected Area ICZM Plan - Socio-economic and landuse researches - Terrestrial and marine biological diversity - Water quality and marine pollution - Fisheries, agricultural, tourism activities