UNDP MON / 01 / U01 project JEMR Consulting Poverty Research Group February – December 2003 Study and Assessment Report: “Impact of Current Climate Hazards on the Livelihoods of Herders’ Households” Report prepared by the experts of the Risk Study Working Group and JEMR Consulting Co., Ltd. Integration and Edition by PhD. Oyun Ravsal Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Impact of Current Climate Hazards on February–December 2003 the Livelihoods of Herders’ Households List of involved advisors, experts and researchers No. Name Comments Advisors:[NU1] 1 Dr Togtokh N. Consultant & Expert, System analyses and policy development, Team leader of RSWG, Member of Parliament 2 Dr Munkhtseren Sh Poverty Research Group, MF&E 3 Mr Richard Marshall UNDP advisor, PRG, MF&E 4 Dr Bizya G. Consultant & Expert, Animal husbandry, RSWG, Institute of Livestock of MSUA 5 Dr Manibazar Í. Consultant & Expert, Geo-botany and forage vegetation, RSWG, JEMR 6 Mendbileg M. Aimag Governor, To’v aimag 7 Dr D. Khuchit A. Consultant, Agriculture, Farmer college 8 Jamsranjav G. Consultant & Editor, Culture and terminology, RSWG, JEMR 9 Dr. Avirmed Consultant, Ecologist, RSWG 10 Dr Khosbayar P. Consultant, Institute of Geology 11 Dr Byambajav D. Consultant, Agriculture, RSWG, Farmer college Project team and researchers: 1 Dr Oyun P. Team leader, Environment Impact Assessment and Information technology, Coordinator of RSWG, Director of JEMR 2 Batbayar L. Manager, social study and logistics, JEMR. 3 Dr Baatar R. Soil study, Institute of Geography 4 Dr Undarmaa J. Plant regeneration and Evapotranspiration, Institute of Botany 5 Dr Tseveen Livestock Economy, Institute of Economy, MSU 6 Turbileg Social study, Freelance consultant 7 Tsogt J. Forecasting of disastrous extreme event, IMH 8 Tseesodroltsoo Mongolia Meteorological Society, NGO 9 Amarjargal D., Information on extreme events, IMH 10 Bayarbat Herder, Dundgobi, Erdenedalai soum 11 Boldbaatar Sh. Disaster assessment, RSWG, DMB 12 Gaadmaa Social survey and weather forecasting, IMH 13 Davaasuren Social survey, Khentii 14 Dorj Social survey, Zavkhan, Tosontsengel 15 Dulamsuren Agro-meteorology, IMH 16 Jigmeddorj Drought, its indicators, RSWG, IMH 17 Lovor G. Social survey, RSWG 18 Lhamsuren Geographic Information System, ICC MNE 19 Mo’ngontsooj Social survey, Youth NGO, Dundgobi aimag 20 Munkhtuya Sh. Geographic Information System, ICC MNE 21 Namkhai Sh. Disaster management, RSWG, DMB 22 Purevsuren Socio-economic survey, Herders’ Association, Tuv aimag 23 Urjinkhand Social survey, Khentii, Dadal 24 Chuluun Ch. Hydrometeorology, Dundgobi 25 Chuluunbaatar Poverty survey, Khentii 26 Bayasgalan S. Database development, Web designer, JEMR “Risk Study” working group Tel: 323230, 326489 2 JEMR Consulting Co., Ltd E-mail: [email protected] Impact of Current Climate Hazards on February–December 2003 the Livelihoods of Herders’ Households 27 Altanzul H. 28 Ariunaa S. Data entry and typing, layout development, staffs of JEMR 29 Ganchimeg 30 Monhbaatar U. 31 Myagmarsuren Abbreviations: MF&E Ministry of Finance and Economy MSU Mongolia State University MSUA Mongolia State University of Agriculture RSWG “Risk study” working group IMH Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology ICC Information & Computer Center, MNE MNE Ministry of Nature and Environment DMA Disaster management Agency NAMHEM National Agency for Meteorology and Hydrology MMS Mongolia Meteorological Society JEMR JEMR Consulting Co., Ltd. “Risk Study” working group Tel: 323230, 326489 3 JEMR Consulting Co., Ltd E-mail: [email protected] Impact of Current Climate Hazards on February–December 2003 the Livelihoods of Herders’ Households Content 1.0 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 6 1.1. TERMS OF REFERENCE AND THEIR IMPLEMENTATION .............................................. 6 Research Goal and Objectives................................................................................ 6 Conducting the Research ........................................................................................ 7 Research Methodology............................................................................................ 9 1.2. OUTPUTS................................................................................................................ 12 TOR for Report ..................................................................................................... 12 Report Structure.................................................................................................... 12 Discussion of the Findings.................................................................................... 13 2.0 OUTPUTS OF THE STUDY ................................................................................ 14 2.1. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................ 14 1. Weather and Environmental Changes, Variability and Hazards ..................... 14 2. Impact of Climate hazards on Pasture-based Animal Husbandry.................... 16 3. Impact of Climate Hazards on Livelihood of Herders’ Households................ 22 4. Towards to Manage Climate Risks To Improve Herders’ Livelihoods............. 28 2.2. ADVISES AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................... 31 1. For Poverty Reduction...................................................................................... 31 2. For economic strengthening of herders’ community........................................ 33 3. To manage risk of animal husbandry under changing climate and environment........................................................ 34 2.3. PILOTING ............................................................................................................... 37 1. Risk assessment and planning the preparedness .............................................. 37 2. The liquid gas fuel is to protect the pasture from desertification..................... 47 3. Multiplication and incubation for restocking with livestock ............................ 48 4: Raise camel to substitute cattle losses.............................................................. 49 3.0 IMPACT OF CLIMATE HAZARDS ON PASTURE AND ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ........................................................................................................ 51 3.1. MONGOLIA............................................................................................................. 51 3.2. EXPERIENCES OF THE SURVEYED AIMAGS AND SOUMS........................................... 56 Bulgan aimag........................................................................................................ 57 Dundgobi aimag.................................................................................................... 59 Zavkhan aimag...................................................................................................... 64 To’v aimag ............................................................................................................ 65 Khentii................................................................................................................... 66 “Risk Study” working group Tel: 323230, 326489 4 JEMR Consulting Co., Ltd E-mail: [email protected] Impact of Current Climate Hazards on February–December 2003 the Livelihoods of Herders’ Households 4.0 IMPACT OF CLIMATE HAZARDS ON LIVELIHOODS OF HERDERS’ HOUSEHOLDS...................................................................................................... 68 4.1. LIVELIHOODS OF HERDERS’ HOUSEHOLDS IN MONGOLIA ..................................... 68 4.2. LIVELIHOODS OF HERDERS’ HOUSEHOLDS IN SURVEYED 5 AIMAGS ..................... 72 Surveyed Households and Their Representatives................................................. 72 Herders’ Household Livelihoods .......................................................................... 75 Impact of climate hazards on assets and incomes of herders’ households.......... 78 Natural Environment and Climate Change and Variability................................. 82 Access to weather forecasting, hazard warning information and activities for preparedness......................................................................................................... 83 Remoteness of herders from market...................................................................... 84 Support and Aid to the Herders ............................................................................ 85 Herders’ attitudes and recommendations to overcome hazards with less losses and adapt to climate change....................................Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.0 FINDINGS OF THE POLICY RESEARCH ...................................................... 86 5.1. GOVERNMENT STRATEGY FOR DEVELOPMENT ...................................................... 86 Economic Development ........................................................................................ 86 Government Programme....................................................................................... 87 5.2. GOVERNMENT STRATEGY FOR POVERTY REDUCTION............................................ 89 Growth Policies for Poverty Reduction ................................................................ 90 Strategy Paper for Economic Growth Support and Poverty Reduction ............... 91 5.3. GOVERNMENT POLICY TO REDUCE RISK OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR........................... 93 Priority tasks of Livestock sector of Mongolia ....................................................