Lingnan University Digital Commons @ Lingnan University Theses & Dissertations Department of Political Sciences 2011 Alliance management of post-cold war US-Israeli relations Wun Liong CHAU Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.ln.edu.hk/pol_etd Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Chau, W. L. (2011). Alliance management of post-cold war US-Israeli relations (Master's thesis, Lingnan University, Hong Kong). Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.14793/pol_etd.3 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Political Sciences at Digital Commons @ Lingnan University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ Lingnan University. Terms of Use The copyright of this thesis is owned by its author. Any reproduction, adaptation, distribution or dissemination of this thesis without express authorization is strictly prohibited. All rights reserved. ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT OF POST-COLD WAR US-ISRAELI RELATIONS CHAU WUN LIONG MPHIL LINGNAN UNIVERSITY 2011 i ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT OF POST-COLD WAR US-ISRAELI RELATIONS by CHAU Wun Liong A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Philosophy in Social Sciences (Political Science) Lingnan University 2011 i ABSTRACT Alliance management in post-Cold War US-Israeli relations by CHAU Wun Liong Master of Philosophy There is always a controversial debate on why the US-Israeli relationship can enjoy lengthy endurance (even after the end of the Cold War). Scholars have traditionally offered explanations through either the strategic role of Israel to the US, or domestic factors including the Jewish lobbies in the US, or the cultural affinities between the two states. However, they tend to emphasize the significance of only one particular dimension, marginalizing possible insights from competitive dimensions. This research aims to offer a different approach to study US-Israeli relations through alliance management theories. Although there are no formal military treaties between the US and Israel, the relationship between the two states is indeed a de facto alliance. Therefore alliance management theories are applicable to the study on the US-Israel relations. A new explanation transcending the boundaries amongst various traditional approaches can be achieved. This research showed phased fluctuations within this bilateral alliance. Critical junctures, including (i) the end of the Cold war, (ii) the 9/11 incident, (iii) US turmoil in post-war Iraq, forced the US to redefine its top interests in the Middle East. The US-Israeli alliance will become more tension-prone when allying partners experience growing conflicting top interests or weakening shared top interests. Successful alliance management between the two states could stabilize the relations in case of high conflicting interests while consolidate the relations in case of low conflicting interests. The US-Israeli alliance has successfully limited the level of tensions and thus maintained a close and stable relationship even after the end of the Cold War. i DECLARATION I declare that this is an original work based primarily on my own research, and I warrant that all citations of previous research, published or unpublished, have been duly acknowledged. ________________________ (CHAU Wun Liong) June 2011 ii CERTIFICATE OF APPROVAL OF THESIS ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT OF POST-COLD WAR US-ISRAELI RELATIONS by CHAU Wun Liong Master of Philosophy Panel of Examiners: ______________________ (Chairman) (Dr. CHUNG Chien Peng) ______________________ (External Member) (Dr. SHEN Xu Hui, Simon) ______________________ (Internal Member) (Dr. ZHANG Baohui) ______________________ (Internal Member) (Dr. SYMONS, Jonathan) Chief Supervisor: Dr. ZHANG Baohui Co-Supervisor: Prof. BRIDGES, Brian Approved for the Senate _______________________________________________ (Prof. SEADE, Jesús) Chairman, Research and Postgraduate Studies Committee _______________________________________________ Date iii CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS …………………………………………………. i-iii LIST OF FIGURES ………………………………………………………. iv LIST OR ABBREVIATIONS ……………………………………………. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ………………………………………………. vi-vii CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research questions and objectives …………………………………. 1 1.2 Literature review on US-Israeli relations …………………………... 3 1.3 The US and Israel: “alliance” or “special relationship”? …………... 6 1.4 Structure of thesis …………………………………………………... 13 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW, RESEARCH FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY 2.1 Literature Review …………………………………………………... 15 2.1.1 Alliance theories ……………………………………………..... 16 2.1.2 Halabi‟s post-crises diplomacy theory ………………………… 20 2.2 Theoretical framework for the research …………………………..... 25 2.2.1 Framework Structure …………………………………………... 25 2.2.2 Theoretical basis for analyzing internal dynamics of US-Israeli alliance management ………………………………………….. 27 2.2.2.1 Model of the international system ………………………. 28 2.2.2.2 Intra-alliance bargaining process ………………………... 31 2.3 Methodology ……………………………………………………….. 40 CHAPTER THREE CRITICAL JUNCTURES AND THEIR IMPACT ON US AND ISRAELI TOP INTERESTS 3.1 Impact of critical junctures to US top regional interests in the 42 Middle East ………………………………………………………… 42 3.1.1 Critical juncture I: the end of the Cold War ………………….... 47 3.1.2 Critical juncture II: the 9/11 incident ………………………….. 51 3.1.3 Critical juncture III: Turmoil in the Second Iraq War …………. 57 3.2 The relatively consistent national strategic interests of Israel ……... i CHAPTER FOUR ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT IN PHASE I: FROM THE END OF THE COLD WAR 4.1 Comparison on US and Israeli top interests ………………………... 60 4.2 Internal dynamics of US-Israeli alliance management …………….. 64 4.2.1 Disputes over Israeli settlements: A hint? ……………………... 64 4.2.2 The First Iraq War: A favourable turn? ………………………... 67 4.2.3 Madrid peace process: Financial restraint ……………………... 72 4.2.4 Oslo peace process: False hope ………………………………... 77 4.2.5 1998-1999: Distractions ……………………………………….. 83 4.2.6 The final efforts of Clinton: In vain again …………………….. 88 4.3 Summary on Phase I ……………………………………………….. 92 CHAPTER FIVE ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT IN PHASE II: FROM THE 9/11 INCIDENT 5.1 Comparison on US and Israeli top interests ……………………….. 95 5.2 Internal dynamics of US-Israeli alliance management ……………. 98 5.2.1 Marginalization of Arafat ……………………………………… 98 5.2.2 The Road Map as well as the Second Iraq War ……………….. 102 5.2.3 Sharon‟s “unilateral disengagement” plan …………………….. 108 5.2.4 Hamas‟ electoral victory ……………………………………..... 112 5.2.5 The Second Lebanon War ……………………………………... 116 5.3 Summary on Phase II ……………………………………………..... 119 CHAPTER SIX ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT IN PHASE III: FROM US TURMOIL IN IRAQ 6.1 Comparison on US and Israeli top interests ………………………... 121 6.2 Internal dynamics of US-Israeli alliance management …………….. 124 6.2.1 Marginalization of Arafat ……………………………………… 124 6.2.2 The Road Map as well as the Second Iraq War ……………….. 128 6.2.3 Sharon‟s “unilateral disengagement” plan …………………….. 131 6.2.4 Hamas‟ electoral victory ………………………………………. 135 6.2.5 The Second Lebanon War ……………………………………... 137 6.2.6 Netanyahu‟s return …………………………………………….. 140 6.2.7 Controversies on East Jerusalem settlement activities ………… 144 6.2.8 Gaza Flotilla Blockade ………………………………………… 147 6.2.9 Distractions in Phase II ………………………………………... 150 6.3 Summary on Phase III ……………………………………………… 152 ii CHAPTER SEVEN GENERALIZATION AND CONCLUSIONS 7.1 Generalization on phased analysis on US-Israeli alliance relations ... 154 7.1.1 Conflicting interests and tensions ……………………………... 155 7.1.2 Alliance management and the maintenance of the US-Israeli alliance ………………………………………………………… 157 7.1.3 Summary ………………………………………………………. 161 7.2 Research contributions, limitations and recommendations ………… 162 7.3 Epilogue…………………………………………………………….. BIBLIOGRAPHY …………………………………………………………. 165 iii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Brief note on bargaining power and its determinants ……….. 30 Figure 2.2 Forms of abandonment and entrapment ……………………... 34 Figure 3.1 Iraq War: Right or Wrong? …………………………………... 51 Figure 4.1 [Cold War] US top regional interests in the Middle East and Israeli top national interests …………………………………. 63 Figure 4.2 [Post-Cold War] US top regional interests in the Middle East and Israeli top national interests …………………………….. 63 Figure 5.1 [Post-Cold War] US top regional interests in the Middle East and Israeli top national interests …………………………….. 97 Figure 5.2 [Post-9/11] US top regional interests in the Middle East and Israeli top national interests …………………………………. 97 Figure 6.1 [Post-9/11] US top regional interests in the Middle East and Israeli top national interests ………………………………….. 123 Figure 6.2 [Post-US turmoil in post-war Iraq] US top regional interests in the Middle East and Israeli top national interests …………. 123 iv The List of Abbreviations AIPAC American Israel Public Affairs Committee CRS Congressional Research Services DOD Department of Defence NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization QME Qualitative Military Edge US United States UN United Nations UNSC United Nations Security Council UK United Kingdom v Acknowledgement Studying the US-Israeli relations in Hong Kong is difficult but I manage to complete this research finally. I would like to express my deep gratitude to my Chief Supervisor Dr. Zhang Baohui for his pinpoint advices and valuable inspirations to the construction of my research framework. I am very grateful to my Co-supervisor Prof. Brian Bridges, who offered