THE BORDER INTO BREXIT: Perspectives from Local Communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland Executive Summary B 3 D B 3 O 1 R 1 2 E 1 R 1 E 1 X 8 T O I 1 N 1 1 1 T 1 Contents Contents List of Figures ..................................................................................................... 5 Foreword ............................................................................................................. 6 Acknowledgements .......................................................................................... 8 Executive Summary ......................................................................................... 10 The project .................................................................................................................................................... 10 Impact of Brexit ............................................................................................................................................ 10 A hard border .................................................................................................................................................11 Leave supporters in the border region ................................................................................................ 12 A No Deal Brexit .......................................................................................................................................... 12 The Revised Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement ...................................................................... 13 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 14 The project .................................................................................................................................................... 14 The context of the two phases of the project .................................................................................... 15 THE BORDER INTO BREXIT: The Central Border Region of Ireland / Northern Ireland .......................... 16 Perspectives from Local Communities in the Central The uniqueness of the border region .................................................................................................. 16 What has been achieved .......................................................................................................................... 18 Border Region of Ireland / Northern Ireland The bridged border ...................................................................................................................................20 The criss-crossed border ........................................................................................................................ 23 A report prepared for the Irish Central Border Area Network (ICBAN) The Study ..........................................................................................................26 By The survey ....................................................................................................................................................26 The respondents ........................................................................................................................................26 Katy Hayward & Milena Komarova The focus groups and individual stakeholder interviews .............................................................28 Centre for International Borders Research A Harder Border...............................................................................................29 Growing anticipation of a hard border ................................................................................................29 Queen’s University Belfast What would a hard border mean to you? ..........................................................................................30 Belfast A hard border as a personal and emotional experience .............................................................. 32 December 2019 ISBN 978-1-916256132 Boarding on Brexit Perspectives from Local Communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland 3 List of Figures A hard border as a ‘retrograde’ step ................................................................................................... 33 Contents The practical costs of a hard border .................................................................................................... 35 List of Figures The anticipated political consequences of a hard border ........................................................... 38 A No Deal Brexit ..............................................................................................42 Figure 1. The risks of a No Deal .............................................................................................................................. 42 Map of the local authority areas included in the Central Border Region of Socio-economic and practical concerns ............................................................................................ 43 Ireland/Northern Ireland .......................................................................................................................... 16 Security concerns ...................................................................................................................................... 44 The negative effects of uncertainty ..................................................................................................... 45 Figure 2. Place of residence of survey respondents, by local authority area .........................................26 Responses to the Revised Withdrawal Agreement ....................................49 The new Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland ................................................................................ 49 Figure 3. Citizenship of survey respondents ...................................................................................................... 27 The Views of Leave Supporters .....................................................................54 Leave supporters and this survey ........................................................................................................ 54 Figure 4. How survey respondents voted in the 2016 Brexit referendum ...............................................28 Views on a hard border ...........................................................................................................................55 Views on a No Deal Brexit ...................................................................................................................... 57 Figure 5. Preferences for representation for the border region after Brexit .............................................58 Do you think a hard NI/IRL border is more or less likely than you thought last year? .......29 The Impact of Brexit Already Experienced ..................................................59 Figure 6. Impact on business, work and investment ........................................................................................59 What would a hard border mean to you? A ‘word cloud’ of survey responses ...................30 Impact on social relations and connections ...................................................................................... 64 Looking Ahead .................................................................................................67 The complexity of the interrelated consequences of Brexit ........................................................ 67 How should the border region be represented after Brexit? ...................................................... 70 What issues relating to Brexit require further discussion...............................................................74 The lay of the land after ‘the Brexit election’ .................................................................................... 78 Appendix 1: The Border Into Brexit online survey ......................................80 Preamble to survey....................................................................................................................................80 Survey questions ......................................................................................................................................... 81 Appendix 2: Theme guides for interviewing................................................84 Focus group guide .................................................................................................................................... 84 Individual stakeholder interview guide ...............................................................................................85 Appendix 3: Codes used in referencing data ..............................................86 Focus Group codes ...................................................................................................................................86 Interview codes ..........................................................................................................................................86 4 The Border into Brexit Perspectives from Local Communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland 5 Foreword The Brexit process has been constantly developing and the latest general election results Foreword Foreword in the UK will likely move this on again. It is a complex subject and who would bet against yet more twists and turns being involved. What this report provides is a reference guide on On behalf of the