The Next Big Thing Colorado Space Grant Consortium Seminar Dr. James R. Stuart 6 December 2012 December 6, 2012 JRS 1 q Brief History of Space q Commercial Space Achievements by Government and Big Corporations q Beginnings of Entrepreneurial Space Privatization q Visionary Space Entrepreneurs and their Projects December 6, 2012 JRS 2 q 1813 William Moore q 1903 Konstantin Tsiolovsky NACA q 1915 NACA formed during WWI: q 1926 Robert Goddard - first liquid rocket Bell X-1 V2 q 1938 Wernher von Baun - V2 rocket q 1945 Arthur C. Clarke - “Extra-Terrestrial Relays” 1947 supersonic Chuck Yeager - NACA’s X-1 from B29 q 1957 USSR Sputnik q 1958 NASA formed from NACA Sputnik December 6, 2012 JRS 3 Brief History of Space (cont’d) q 1957 Vanguard Dr. Bill Pickering q 1958 NASA/JPL’s Explorer-1 Dr. Jim Van Allen Dr. Wernher von Braun q 1960 von Braun - Director of NASA MSFC q 1961 Yuri Gregarin - 1st tourist orbits Earth q 1961 Alan Shepard - 1st USA suborbital q 1962 John Glenn - orbits Earth December 6, 2012 JRS 4 Brief History of Space (cont’d) q! 1962 AT&T Telstar satellite High altitude nuke ‘Starfish Prime’ set-off day before launch q! 1963 Joe Walker - X-15 to 67 miles Astronaut ‘Space Tourist’ per UN list of ~550 people who’ve been in space Telstar-2 5/63" Syncom-3 GEO 8/64 q! 1964 Intelsat formed - 120 countries q! 1969 Moon Landing December 6, 2012 JRS 5 Brief History of Space (cont’d) q! 4/81 First Shuttle Launch Challenger q! 11/84 First Satellite Retrievals Enterprise 4/83-1/86: Discovery To NY Manhatten 10 flights st 1 Launch SA&S Museum 8/84 8/77-11/77: 5 glide flights Columbia Endeavor 3/92-5/16/11: To LA CA 4/81-2/03: Sci Center 28 flights 25 flights Discovery Atlantis To KSC, FL To Chantilly, VA Visitor Center A&S Museum Dr. Joe Allen Discovery 10/85-7/8/11 11/84! 8/84-2/11: 32 flights 39 flights December 6, 2012 JRS 6 Brief History of Space (cont’d) q! 1986-2001 USSR/Russian MIR Space Station Soyuz Progress Soyuz + Progress launch failure 8/24/11 – 3rd stage - Progress MIR crashed in Siberia Space Station Soyuz historic failure rate: 88/1700 ~5% December 6, 2012 JRS 7 Brief History of Space (cont’d) 1998-Present International Space Station October 8, 2012 SpaceX Dragon Capsule 10/10/12 Cupola Observatory Raffaello Progress 2010 module Capsule 2011 2011 December 6, 2012 JRS 8 Brief History of Space (cont’d) Planetary Exploration Achievements – Mars Surface: ! 1975 Mars Landers - Viking 1 and 2 ! 1997 Mars Rover - Pathfinder ! 2004 Mars Rovers - Spirit and Opportunity ! 2004 Mars Lander - Phoenix ! 2012 Mars Rover - MSL Curiosity Curiosity Sky Hook Landing 8/5/12 Mars 29 Earth 21 December 6, 2012 JRS 9 Brief History of Space (cont’d) q! 2005 Saturn’s Titan Lander - ESA Huygens q! 2006 Saturn’s Enceladus §! WATER MORE than on Earth Underground Water Ocean Cassini Flew through Water Geysers December 6, 2012 JRS 10 Brief History of Space (cont’d) q! 2008 Titan 2nd Underground Ocean Discovered – MORE WATER Surface Ice Volcanoes, Weather,»! Rain, Snow, Rivers, Methane Lakes Underground Water Ocean Surface Methane Lakes: ! 2008 Mars Lander Phoenix – MORE WATER Water Ice and Ice Crystal Snowfall December 6, 2012 JRS 11 Brief History of Space (cont’d) q! 2009-12 Lunar Ice – MORE WATER In South Pole Craters (~Great Salt Lake) In North Pole Craters (600M MT) Global thin H2O film layer LCROSS 10/09 Cabeus Crater ! 2011-12 Mercury Ice – MORE WATER +800°F dayside. -300°F nightside ICE in North and South Pole Craters Global thin atmospheric H2O vapor layer Mercury Mercury Mercury North Polar Craters 3/11 Messenger North Polar Craters Water ice in yellow Multi-spectral image 3/11 Messenger image 11/12 Messenger data December 6, 2012 JRS 12 December 6, 2012 JRS 13 q! GPS §! 1960’s TRANSIT §! 1972 developmental flight tests at White Sands §! 1978 launch of first Block-I GPS satellite §! > 70 B$ global commercial revenues in 2012 q! DirecTV, Liberty, WildBlue, EchoStar, etc. §! Dr. John Malone (71) Yale BA EE/Econ, JHU MSIM, PhD OR 1973 CEO of TCI (at 32) 1998 sold for 48B$ §! Charlie Ergen (59) MBA, Professional Gambler 1970’s: sold Big dishes Dr. John Malone 1980 founded Echostar (at 27) Value >6B$ q! Orbital Sciences Corp. Charlie Ergen Founded 1982 Rounds: 500k$, 3M$, 50M$ December 6, 2012 JRS 14 q! Rene Anselmo - Maverick Privatized Sat Com Industry §! 1963 Founded Spanish International Network (37) §! 1984 Founded PANAMSAT (58) §! 1987 Sold SIN (UNIVISION) for $80M (61) §! 1988 Launched PAS-1 1st PRIVATE COMSAT (62) §! Refurbished Satellite, 1st Ariane 4 Launch §! Blocked by INTELSAT Monopoly §! Engraved in stone over Greenwich, CT office door: “Truth and Technology will Triumph Over Bullshit and Bureaucracy” §! 1991 NYT full page Cartoon Ad - ‘My Dog Spot’ Rene Anselmo Urinating on legs of problem politicians, lobbyists §! Broke INTELSAT Monopoly – 1st private comsat business §! 1995 Died at 69 (2 days before IPO) §! 2004 PANAMSAT sold for $2.6B December 6, 2012 JRS 15 1991 NYT full page Cartoon Ad - ‘My Dog Spot’ - Urinating on legs of problem politicians, lobbyists Rene Anselmo: December 6, 2012 JRS 16 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) q! Drs. Joe Allen, Max Faget - First Private Space Station effort •! Joe Allen-1982 and 1984 Shuttle Astronaut •! 1985 Joined Space Industries Inc. §! Founded 1982 by Max Faget §! INDUSTIAL SPACE FACILITY §! Private/Government Partnership •! 1988 Reagan requested $700M §! No Congress Approval Max Faget Dr. Joe Allen December 6, 2012 JRS 17 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) q! Orbital Sciences Corp - Privately funded Launchers Mars §! 1982 Founding (DWT 28, JRS 36) Observer §! 1984 $50M LP Private Raise §! Largest Aerospace Round ever at time TOS §! 1986 $160M in TOS Sales §! 1990 Pegasus 1st Launch TOS §! 1990 IPO (NYSE: ORB) §! 2009 start Taurus II from Wallops Island §! (2010 New Competitor: LMA/ATK’s resumed Athena 1c, 2c) §! 2010 acquires GD sat mfg (Gilbert, AZ) Pegasus OSC’s LMA/ATK’s Wallops Island, VA Pegasus Taurus II at CCAFS December 6, 2012(VAFB, JRS Kodiak) 18 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) q! Low Earth Orbit Constellations Bubble in 1990’s o! Big Corporations - Spent $ Billions o! BUBBLE BURST - No Market Uptake - Lost $ Billions q! 1991 Iridium - Motorola o! 1998 Service Start 1999 Bankruptcy q! 1991 Globalstar - Loral and Qualcomm o! 2000 Service Start 2002 Bankruptcy Globalstar q! 1991 Orbcomm - Orbital Sciences o! 1996 Service Start 2000 Bankruptcy December 6, 2012 JRS 19 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) q! Teledesic - $15B Mega Constellation CU (Mark Balas) lead 840 satellites §! 1990 Founded Dynamics and Control §! 1997 Licensed Granted §! 1998 IPO scheduled §! 2003 Liquidated ! Bill Gates (was 35) and Craig McCaw (was 41) Bill Gates (now 56) Craig McCaw (now 63) December 6, 2012 JRS 20 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) q! 1993 Leo ONE PANAMERICA Leo One o! Jose Manuel Villalvazo Baz (was 38) o! Mexico License granted 1995 Closed 2002 q! 1994 Leo ONE USA o! David A. Bayer (was 51) o! USA License granted 1998 Closed 2002 q! 1995 KiTcomm o! H. James Kennett (was 36) KITcomm o! Australian License granted 1997 Closed 2004 q! 1993 Athena 1, 2 Launcher o! Lockheed Martin (Corp funded) Athena 1 o! 7 Launches 1995-2001 Cancelled 2001 From Kodiak Island 9/30/01 o! Re-started 2011 to compete with SpaceX, Orbital December 6, 2012 JRS 21 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) •! Innovative Launchers Caught in Bubble XCOR (scrappy start- •! Rotary Rocket Corp. up) formed by former RRC rocket engine team XCOR picked by ULA for new Atlas/ Delta upper stage 3/11 XCOR booked by SwRI for 6 Lynx Spaceplane Flights 2/11 XCOR produces EZ- Rocket for Rocket Racing Tom Clancy Gary Hudson (was 45) League December 6, 2012 JRS 22 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) q! Innovative Launchers Caught in Bubble (cont’d) George Koopman §! American Rocket Company Timothy Leary §! 1985: George A. Koopman (1944-89) §! Founder: Insgroup Inc. (was 34) §! Produced: Movies, Books, Albums §! Founder: AmRoc (was 41) §! $20M invested: 300 rocket tests §! 1998 IP Sold to SpaceDev December 6, 2012 JRS 23 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) q! Innovative Launchers Caught in Bubble §! Kelly Space & Technology Astroliner Mike Kelly (was 39) December 6, 2012 JRS 24 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) q! Innovative Launchers (cont’d) §! VentureStar X-33 §! Dave Urie, Proj Mngr §! NASA took over 1996 §! Cancelled in 2001 December 6, 2012 JRS 25 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont’d) •! Innovative Launchers (cont’d) §! DARPA’s DC-X Delta Clipper (1991-93) §! Given to NASA (DC-XA) in 1993 §! Cancelled ~ 2001 §! Basis of Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin ‘New Shepard ’ Tourist SSTO December 6, 2012 JRS 26 q! Space Tourism Businesses §! Zero-G Flights §!Space Prizes §! Space Tourism Suborbital Flights §! Spaceports, ‘Astronaut Dude Ranches’ §! Space Tourism Orbital Flights §! Orbital Space Hotels §! Planetary Tourist Trips December 6, 2012 JRS 27 Dr. Peter Diamandis (51) «! Zero-G Sold to Space Adventures in 2008 December 6, 2012 JRS 28 q! 100 Aviation Prizes offered 1905-1935 §! $25k Orteig Prize: 1927 Charles Lindbergh to Paris q! Space Prizes §! SFF Cheap Access to Space (CATS) Prize §! Heinlein Prize §! 7/11 Altius Space Machines (Louisville, CO): §! Planetary Society Asteroid Tagging Prize Altius Space §! Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Prize: Machines §! NASA Centennial Challenges Sticky Boom® q! $10M Ansari X-Prize 3 people to 100 km (62 miles), Repeat within 2 weeks John Carmack’s Armadillo Aerospace q! $30M Google Lunar X-Prize Lunar Lander Entry Land on Moon, Traverse, Snap Photos, Transmit q! $40M Florida RLVII Prize Most significant advancement toward designing and building a reusable space vehicle [for FL] (2009 through 2014) q! $50M Space America Prize 5 people to 400km, 2 orbits, Repeat within 60 days December 6, 2012 JRS 29 q! John Carmack (42) §! Co-founder id Software (at 21) Games: Doom 1-4, Rage, Quake 1-4, etc.