Conflict in Post-Soviet Europe The South Caucasus: Are there Scenarios for Resolution? 5 - 8 October 2009 Berlin Conflict in Post-Soviet Europe The South Caucasus: Are there Scenarios for Resolution? The articles compiled in this publication reflect the contributions to and aspects of the discus- sions that were held during the conference in October 2009. The views and opinions expressed therein are those of the respective authors only and do not necessarily represent the position of the Federal Foreign Office. Hence, content and 5 - 8 October 2009 form of the articles is subject to the authors only. Berlin Preface 5 Preface Ambassador Jutta Wolke As part of the Foreign Service Academy of the Federal Foreign Office, Training for International Diplomats (TID) offers advanced training programmes for young diplomats from all over the world. Our philosophy is “diplomacy by networking”, the idea that forging a worldwide network of personal ties helps build trust and thereby benefits international cooperation. In the TID context we see reciprocity − in the sense of interac- tion and exchange on equal terms − as the key concept, fostering a cooperative approach to international affairs and the creation of a global network of contacts. Since 1992 some 1400 diplomats from 132 countries have taken part in the Foreign Service Academy’s TID pro- grammes. These are an enriching experience all round, offering new insights and food for thought to partici- pants, organizers and speakers alike. Building relation- ships and mutual trust is just as important as expanding knowledge and sharing experience. The Berlin Roundtable on Diplomacy was held from 5 to 8 October 2009 in cooperation with the University of Erfurt’s Willy Brandt School of Public Policy. This was a new venture for us in terms of both format and partici- pants, for it brought leading experts from international organizations together with academics and civil society representatives from several different countries. MEP Elmar Brok, the keynote speaker on the opening day, an- alysed the threat to European stability posed by conflicts in the post-Soviet area. This was followed by a panel dis- cussion between Peter Semneby, the EU Representative for the South Caucasus, Herbert Salber, the Director of the OSCE Conflict Prevention Centre, and Irakli Alasania, Georgia’s former Ambassador to the UN. Throughout the three-day conference recognized experts from the South Caucasus, Turkey and Russia engaged in lively and constructive debate. 6 Preface Preface 7 While our Berlin Roundtable on Diplomacy was by no peace process. The deployment of an EU Monitoring means a typical TID event, its basic objectives were the Mission (EUMM) in Georgia is a first notable step in this same as for our other programmes. Firstly, it aimed to direction. Hence the articles assembled in Section III forge ties between policy-makers and regional ex- explore overarching security questions and the role of perts and thereby help them understand each other’s international organizations in the region. They include perspectives. The cultural programme we laid on also contributions from Pascal Heyman of the OSCE Conflict enabled our international guests to get to know Ger- Prevention Centre as well as from Peter Semneby, EUMM many better. Secondly, the Roundtable was about shar- head Hansjörg Haber and Dieter Boden, the former ing information and expertise. True to the spirit of our UN Special Representative for the Southern Caucasus. Research and Academic Relations Initiative, it provided Fyodor Lukyanov discusses the so-called Medvedev pro- a forum for mutual learning and presenting conflict posal and ideas for reorganizing the Eurasian security resolution research to an international audience. landscape. Finally, young diplomats mainly from Latin America and Following up the various scenarios analysed during the Eastern Europe attending our other TID programmes Roundtable, we also have articles offering an expert’s were invited to attend some of the sessions, where they view of conflict resolution mechanisms, negotiation learned not only about a major international conflict processes, confidence-building measures and police but also experienced at first hand a culture of construc- training as well as changing perceptions of the issues at tive debate. stake. We have documented in this publication the most May I finally express my sincere thanks to all contribu- important results and insights to emerge from the tors to this publication, which I hope will provide its Roundtable discussions. readers with many valuable insights. As the conference took place right after publication of the Tagliavini Report on the August War in Georgia, the war itself and its consequences were a major topic of debate. Participants agreed that the events of 2008 had dimmed the prospects for resolving the conflicts. Ambassador Jutta Wolke The picture elsewhere in the region, however, was seen as more encouraging. Participants were optimistic that ongoing diplomatic overtures between Turkey and Armenia could have a positive impact on the security of the entire region. Nimet Beriker, David Shahnazaryan and Leila Alieva provide a more detailed assessment of current developments in the region. The Roundtable also focused strongly on the role of external actors, particularly international organiza- tions, in the conflict in Georgia. Following the suspen- sion of the OSCE and UN missions there, the EU faced increasing pressure to become actively engaged in the Programme Programme 9 Monday, 5 October 9:30-10:00 Welcome Address Transfer to the European Academy Berlin Hans-Dieter Lucas, Federal Foreign Office Opening of the Conference, Europasaal, Federal Foreign Office, Berlin 10:00-11:00 Keynote speech: Conflicts in the post-Soviet area – 20:00-21:30 Supplementary programme: a continuing threat to European stability Fireside chat on post-election Germany Elmar Brok, Member of the European Parliament Guest speakers: 11:00-11:15 Introduction to the concept and working methods Werner Weidenfeld, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität of the conference München Dieter Boden, Federal Foreign Office Patrik Schwarz, DIE ZEIT Dietmar Herz, Universität Erfurt 11:15-12:15 Sources of conflict in the South Caucasus Tuesday, 6 October Bruno Coppieters, Vrije Universiteit Brussels 9:30-12:00 Debate on crisis scenario 13:30-15:30 Conflict resolution and negotiation concepts after Scenario I: Instability in Georgia, Options for Action the August War Evaluation Walter Kaufmann, Heinrich Böll Foundation, Berlin Archil Gegeshidze, Georgian Foundation for Strategic 13:00-14:30 The role of Russia and International Studies, Tbilisi Introductory presentation by Sergey Markedonov, 16:00-18:00 Introduction: External actors – options for mediation Russian Institute for Military Analysis, Moscow Dieter Boden, Federal Foreign Office Comments by Irakli Alasania, former Ambassador of Georgia to the UN Panel discussion: Gevorg Ter-Gabrielyan, Country Director Armenia, Eura- The role of the EU, OSCE and UN in the region sian Partnership Foundation,Yerevan Panellists: Leila Alieva, President of the Centre for National and Peter Semneby, EU Special Representative for the Inter national Studies, Baku South Caucasus, Brussels Herbert Salber, Director of the OSCE Conflict Prevention 15:00-17:30 Confidence building and the role of civil society as a Centre, Vienna key element for conflict resolution Irakli Alasania, former Ambassador of Georgia to the UN Jonathan Cohen, Director of Programmes, Conciliation Karsten D. Voigt, Coordinator of German-American Resources, London Cooperation Gevorg Ter-Gabrielyan, Country Director Armenia, Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor of the Journal “Russia in Global Eurasian Partnership Foundation, Yerevan Affairs”, Moscow Confidence building in a conflict area Chaired by Dieter Boden / Dietmar Herz Hansjörg Haber, Head of EUMM Georgia 10 Programme Programme 11 Wednesday, 7 October Thursday, 8 October 9:00-11:00 Principles of international law: Self-determination 9:00-10:00 Lessons learnt from history or territorial integrity? “Negotiating under fire”? Conflict management in Georg Nolte, Humboldt Universität Berlin the Middle East Susanne Marianne Wasum-Rainer, Federal Foreign Dietmar Herz, Universität Erfurt Office Organizing negotiation processes. The Treaty of 11:00-12:00 Problem perception, extremist rhetoric and the role Versailles and the Dayton Agreement of the media in reconciliation Marie-Janine Calic, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität George Khutsishvili, International Center for Conflict München and Negotiation, Tbilisi 10:30-12:30 Discussion of negotiation scenario 13:00-14:00 “Conflict mapping” and conflict management: Scenario II: Nagorno-Karabakh – How to identify Considering individual aspects solutions? Evaluation Christopher Langton, International Institute for 13:30-14:00 Concluding statement Strategic Studies, London Gernot Erler, then Minister of State at the Federal Pascal Heyman, OSCE Conflict Prevention Centre, Foreign Office Vienna Reception Hansjörg Haber, Head of EUMM, Georgia 14:00-16:00 Conflict mapping for the South Caucasus (working groups) Friday, 9 October / Saturday, 10 October Working group I: Political and structural factors Working group II: Economic situation and allocation of Cultural Programme Thuringia resources Working group III: Problem perceptions and soft factors 16:30-17:30 Presentation and discussion of results (plenary) Conference Venues Conference Opening Day (5 October) Conference Venue (6-8 October) Federal Foreign