REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (NEDA) FOLLOW-UP SURVEY ON ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FOR GREATER CAPITAL REGION (GCR) FINAL REPORT August 2019 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) ALMEC CORPORATION PP JR 19-003 REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (NEDA) FOLLOW-UP SURVEY ON ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FOR GREATER CAPITAL REGION (GCR) FINAL REPORT August 2019 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) ALMEC CORPORATION TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 1-1 2 SUMMARY OF ISSUES FACING MEGA MANILA ........................................... 2-1 2.1 Spatial Structure .................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 Traffic Congestion ................................................................................................ 2-7 2.3 Environmental Sustainability ...............................................................................2-14 2.4 Social Issues ......................................................................................................2-24 3 Review of Existing Development Policy and Plans ...................................... 3-1 3.1 Spatial Development Policy and Plans ................................................................. 3-1 3.2 Transport Development Policy and Plans ........................................................... 3-11 3.3 Other Related Policies and Plans .......................................................................3-18 3.4 Build!Build!Build! Program ..................................................................................3-20 3.5 Review of Existing Development Policy and Plan ...............................................3-24 4 Goals and Strategies ....................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Goals and Transport Sector Strategies ................................................................ 4-1 4.2 Traffic Management ............................................................................................. 4-6 4.3 Urban Railway Development ..............................................................................4-14 4.4 Roads and Urban Expressway ...........................................................................4-19 4.5 Road-based Public Transport .............................................................................4-27 4.6 Logistics and Ports .............................................................................................4-32 4.7 Gateway Airport Strategy ....................................................................................4-40 4.8 Transport Sector Management ...........................................................................4-43 5. New Town/Urban Area Development Integrated with NSCR/MMSP ............ 5-1 5.1 Background ......................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Developing the Macro Transit Oriented Community ............................................. 5-5 5.3 Implementing the Macro Transit Oriented Integrated Community ......................... 5-7 5.4 Proposed Roadmap for New Town Development ................................................. 5-8 6. UPDATED TRANSPORT ROADMAP............................................................... 6-1 6.1 Goals and Transport Sector Strategies ................................................................ 6-1 6.2 Additional Projects to be Included by 2035 .......................................................... 6-7 6.3 Budget Envelope ................................................................................................ 6-11 6.4 Implementation Schedule ...................................................................................6-13 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. 7-1 APPENDIX Appendix 1 Transport Demand Forecast Appendix 2 PPP Experience on Transport Projects in the Greater Capital Region Appendix 3 Presentation Materials of Workshops i LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Main Meetings held during the Study .............................................................................. 1-3 Table 2.1.1 Profile of the Study Area .................................................................................................. 2-1 Table 2.1.2 Population Growth from 2000 to 2015 in Metro Manila ................................................... 2-3 Table 2.1.3 Population Forecast by 2035 (Trend) .............................................................................. 2-5 Table 2.2.1 Travel Demand in the Study Area—Inter-Zonal Trips in 2017 .......................................... 2-7 Table 2.2.2 Changes in Daily Traffic Crossing Metro Manila Boundary ............................................. 2-7 Table 2.2.3 Traffic Volume Crossing the Pasig River ......................................................................... 2-8 Table 2.2.4 Summary of Road Traffic Volume and Network Performance in 2017 .......................... 2-10 Table 2.2.5 Comparison of Broad Indicators on Transport Outcomes in 2012, 2014 and 2017 ...... 2-12 Table 2.3.1 Urban Green Space in Metro Manila ............................................................................. 2-14 Table 2.3.2 Air Pollution Status of Major Cities in Asia1/ 2/ .............................................................. 2-15 Table 2.3.3 Motor Vehicle Emissions by Vehicle Type in Metro Manila in 2008 and 2010 (tons/year) ........................................................................................................................................ 2-15 Table 2.3.4 Annual TSP Trend by Monitoring Stations from 2004 to 2014 ....................................... 2-16 Table 2.3.5 PM10 Monitoring Results in Metro Manila in 2011 and 20121/ ..................................... 2-16 Table 2.3.6 Philippines GHG Emissions by Sector in 1990, 2000 and 2004.................................... 2-17 Table 2.3.7 Combined Energy and Waste Sectors GHG Emissions for Metro Manila in 2010 ........ 2-18 Table 2.3.8 Population Living in Flood Hazard and Landslide Hazard Area .................................... 2-19 Table 2.3.9 Estimated Damages of Metro Manila from a West Valley Fault Earthquake ................. 2-23 Table 2.4.1 Informal Settler Families along Waterways in Metro Manila in 2012 ............................. 2-24 Table 2.4.2 Housing Backlog in GCR1/ ............................................................................................ 2-25 Table 3.1.1 Network Settlements of Greater Capital Region in PDP 2017–2022 .............................. 3-2 Table 3.1.2 Existing Comprehensive Land Use Plans of LGUs ......................................................... 3-9 Table 3.1.3 Development Visions of LGUs in Metro Manila ............................................................. 3-10 Table 3.2.1 Status of Priority Projects in the Previous Roadmap ..................................................... 3-14 Table 3.2.2 With-Without Analysis on Completed Projects............................................................... 3-17 Table 3.4.1 Main Projects in Build!Build!Build! Program .................................................................. 3-21 Table 3.4.2 Impact of Build!Build!Build! Program ............................................................................. 3-23 Table 4.2.1 Roadmap to Intelligent Transport System...................................................................... 4-12 Table 4.3.1 Summary of Railway Systems in Mega Manila.............................................................. 4-14 Table 4.3.2 Railway Project in Last Decade ..................................................................................... 4-15 Table 4.3.3 Roadmap for Railways ................................................................................................... 4-18 Table 4.4.1 National Road Inventory and Road Density in Mega Manila in 2017 ............................ 4-19 Table 4.4.2 Roadmap for Urban Road and Expressway .................................................................. 4-26 Table 4.5.1 Roadmap for Road-based Public Transport .................................................................. 4-30 Table 4.6.1 Track Cargo from Main Ports in Greater Capital Region ................................................ 4-32 Table 4.6.2 Track Cargo to Main Ports in Greater Capital Region .................................................... 4-32 Table 4.6.3 Container Ship by Destination Port from Main Ports of Greater Capital Region (2012) 4-33 Table 4.6.4 Types of Ships Arrived at Main Ports in Greater Capital Region (2012) ........................ 4-33 Table 4.6.5 Market Share of Ports in GCR, 2016 .............................................................................. 4-34 Table 4.6.6 Air Distance of Alternative Seaports from Port of Manila ................................................ 4-34 Table 4.6.7 Roadmap for Logistics and Ports .................................................................................... 4-39 Table 4.7.1 Roadmap for Gateway Airport ........................................................................................ 4-42 Table 4.8.1 Typology of Selected Transport Authorities ...................................................................