Explaining Russia’s Foreign Policy after Ukraine and Syria: Liberalism, Constructivism, Realism and the Security Dilemma. MA Thesis in European Studies Graduate School for Humanities Universiteit van Amsterdam Name Hasar Demnati Student number 6206565 Main supervisor A.M. Kalinovsky Second supervisor M.M. Lok Date July 2016 Hasar Demnati 6206565 Content Preface .............................................................................................................................................. 3 List of abbreviations ......................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 1: Theoretical Approach ................................................................................................... 9 Liberalism .................................................................................................................................. 11 Social Constructivism ................................................................................................................ 13 Realism ....................................................................................................................................... 15 Chapter 2: Theories as guides for policymakers .......................................................................... 17 Realpolitik .................................................................................................................................. 17 Liberal internationalism ............................................................................................................ 20 Chapter 3: Russia’s shift from a liberal worldview to realism and the pursuit of security ........... 23 The Security Dilemma .............................................................................................................. 24 Chapter 4: The road to the Ukrainian conflict ............................................................................. 27 The source of Russia’s aggression: Fighting for security .......................................................... 27 Ukraine, Russia’s last frontier ................................................................................................... 32 Crimea........................................................................................................................................ 37 Chapter 5: Russia-Syria allies or illusions? ................................................................................... 42 The cradle of Russian-Syrian cooperation ............................................................................... 42 Nostalgia and Minimal Interests? ............................................................................................. 45 Russia’s biggest Security threat .................................................................................................. 51 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 57 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................... 61 2 Hasar Demnati 6206565 Preface Even before I began my Master European Studies I was intrigued by the Russian President Vladimir Putin and his course of actions regarding the past five years. However, from a layman’s perspective it was hard to understand what the basis was for the contemporary upheavals in Ukraine and Syria. During the last year of my Bachelor European Studies I followed the course Putin’s Russia, but I still seemed to be missing the point and my curiosity remained unsatisfied. Nevertheless, as I started my Master degree I followed an eye-opening course, Geopolitics by dr. Luiza A. Bialasiewicz in which I got to learn more about inspiring and influencing geopolitical figures, such as Sir Mackinder and Alexander Dugin. At this point a new world had opened for me and I was dedicated to find out what drove world leaders into pursuing certain approaches. This thesis, is the product of my curiosity and the beginning of a new adventure in my life. Nevertheless, this amazing journey contained both ups and downs, but still I have never stopped from attempts to confront any occurred challenges and accomplish the objectives I have set. Luckily, I have had a great supervisor who really believed in me and the analysis I was dedicated to produce. Therefore, I would like to express many thanks to Professor dr. Artemy M. Kalinovsky who seemed to be able to encourage me every time I felt lost, and I can promise you that this occurred a few times. Besides, he managed to get me on the right track every time I struggled to comprehend delicate issues and provide me with the right advice. Other people who also greatly influenced my performance during my research is my brainstorm buddy Tijana Vojnovic, my inspiring and patient husband Rachid el Hassani and my beautiful little girl, Amber who gave me the strength to pursuing my dreams even when I thought I could not. And last but not least I would also like to express my appreciation to the rest of my family, my friends, including Fadoua Rahhou and Karima Bouchatoui for their contribution and moral support that helped me in writing this thesis. I am extremely honored to have had such a proficient supervisor, loving and supporting family and friends. And if I forgot to mention anyone that should be mentioned I hereby apology as I undoubtedly appreciate any contribution from anyone. 3 Hasar Demnati 6206565 List of abbreviations BMD Ballistic Missile Defense CIS Commonwealth of Independent States ECSC European Coal and Steel Community EU European Union IMF International Monetary Fund IR International Relations ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute UK United Kingdom UN United Nation UNSC United Nation Security Council US United States of America USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WWII Second World War 4 Hasar Demnati 6206565 Introduction ussian foreign Policy, particularly in Ukraine and Syria is vexing scholars, pundits and politicians in the West. Many of whom are relying, overtly or not, on one of several R dominant International Relations (hereinafter: IR) paradigms to try to understand Russia’s behavior. These dominant paradigms are among others realism, liberalism, constructivism, and functionalism. While all have their explanatory value, this thesis will argue that the explanatory value of liberalism is limited by the fact that the way leaders believe the world works, has changed over time. Leaders themselves turn to different paradigms to guide their approaches. In the case of Russia and the West, a liberal approach after 1991 was gradualy replaced by a realists perspective, which sees the acumulation of power and the preservation of its national security as its most significant interests. However, Russia’s behavior has also put it into the position of a security dilemma, which is a situation in which the actions taken by states to guarantee their own security are considered to be a threat to the security of other states. Therefore, I will be applying the notion of the security dilemma to the present situation concerning Russia’s behavior in Ukraine and Syria. With this I will try to demonstrate the relative explanatory value of three specific theoretical frameworks: liberalism, constructivism, and realism. Liberalism, begins with the premise that humans are naturally good and the individual is self-sufficient. Liberalism in IR advocates public and political autonomies, supervision by law in harmony with the ruled, and security from autocratic power (Beavis, 2015). In economics, as well as in politics liberalism’s emphasis on the collective results of individual actions leads to the analysis of markets and policies, market and policy failure, and institutions to correct such failure. In traditional IR theory it implies attempts to reconcile state sovereignty with the reality of strategic interdependence. Constructivism approaches IR as rooted in creations of history and society. Constructivist theory condemns the basic hypothesis of realism that the state of anarchy is a structural situation characteristic to the structure of states. Rather, they argue that the world is made up of social constructions (i.e. ideas, or meanings people attach to objects) – that is, that material forces do not have any fundamental significance only that what actors define as their meaning (Webber, 2013, 43-4). Thus, anarchy is a situation of the system of countries, since (heads of) states choose to create it a certain way. Anarchy is therefore, the outcome of a process that builds the norms that administer the collaboration of countries rather than an 5 Hasar Demnati 6206565 intrinsic element of state-to-state affairs. Thus, in constructivism one would argue that it is possible to alter the anarchic essence of states’ structure (Jørgensen, 2010, 160-3). Nevertheless, in the case of liberalism the conventional liberal assumptions stating that economic interdependence between states reduces conflict, seem to be contested ever since the conflicts arose in Ukraine and Syria. Constructivism, while offering an alternative to explaining Russia’s