FT SPECIAL REPORT Central & Eastern Europe Property Tuesday April 12 2016 www.ft.com/reports | @ftreports Inside Investors hold their nerves Money is flowing back into the region Page 2 Political risk Populist policies unsettle observers and professionals Page 5 Clouds over Kiev Conflict with Russia Aleksandar Vucic (centre), Serbia’s prime minister, at the unveiling of Belgrade’s Waterfront development scheme — AFP/Getty has taken its toll Page 6 New kids on the Serbs divided over Waterfront block Rivals compete with western backers Inside A prestige $3bn development in Belgrade is under close scrutiny, Page 4 Page 9 2 | FTReports FINANCIAL TIMES Tuesday 12 April 2016 FINANCIAL TIMES Tuesday 12 April 2016 FTReports | 3 Central & Eastern Europe Property Central & Eastern Europe Property region’s role as a destination for IT lower-costcountriestoperformback- Contributors andoutsourcingservices. Central and eastern Europe investment volumes office or other tasks, is continuing to In Serbia, reforms to property laws 2012–15, €bn support commercial developments, Henry Foy have raised investor optimism in a particularly in Poland, though also in Central Europe correspondent Investors hold nerve as deals roll on country whose government is eager countriessuchasRomania. 9 to benefit from its lower-cost advan- Other CEE Companies that pioneered offshor- Slovakia Zosia Wąsik Warsaw reporter tages over neighbouring countries Romania ingtotheregionadecadeagoareadd- Deal flows property investors was “keep calm inside the EU. Serbia’s accession to Hungary 8 ing increasingly more complex tasks andcarryon”. the28memberbloc,though,remains Czech Republic totheircentralEuropeanoffices. Andrew MacDowall Money is returning “We do receive questions from somewayoff. Poland To facilitate this, they are tapping Freelance writer to the region in spite investors who are interested in the The flow of property deals in the 7 large numbers of well-skilled gradu- latestchangesinPolandandtheinflu- region has been helped by a surge of atesinsuchcitiesasWarsawandKra- Roman Olearchyk of market jitters. ence these events have on the coun- funding from new sources, such as kow in Poland and in the Romanian Ukraine correspondent Henry Foy reports try’s investment real estate market,” Asian and South African investors. 6 capital Bucharest. They are also tak- says Tomasz Trzoslo, managing Theyaremusclinginonamarketpre- ingonmoreofficespace. Tadas Povilauskas director of Jones Lang LaSalle in viously sewn up by German, UK and 5 Demand for premium retail space Senior economist at SEB Bank Group t is a region marked by concerns Poland. US-basedinvestors(seePage9). is rising fast, too. Investors look to in Lithuania over the actions of illiberal, pop- Yet “real estate investors base their The new investors are attracted by profit from the growth of the region’s ulist governments, worried by investment strategies on a long-term the theme of central Europe property 4 middle classes, who are showing off Michael Kavanagh clashes over policies with Brus- perspective,” he adds. “Investment being a low-cost, high-return bet that newly acquired spending power by Commissioning editor I sels and the rest of the EU and decisions take into account a number offers a foothold and training ground shopping for western brands in mod- Steven Bird with some states under threat of sov- of economic factors and as a result, forthewiderEUmarket. 3 ernmalls. Designer ereigndebtdowngrades. knee-jerk reactions to unexpected “In Romania the first institutional Investors poured €2.3bn into retail Alan Knox Central and eastern Europe is sup- eventsorsuddenmarketfluctuations investors are returning,” says Ernst projects in Poland last year, the most Picture editor 2 posedly becoming a trickier place for aretakenoutoftheequation.” Vejdovsky, chief executive of since2006.Another€1.1bnwentinto investorstodobusiness. “Political risk can’t be ignored S-Immo, an Austrian property group Czechretailschemes. For advertising details, contact: You would not guess this, however, and . the immediate impact is with operations across the region. 1 The sector saw some 42 per cent Lyn Thompson, +44 (0) 20 7873 from gazing at the steel and glass sky- almost always one of investor — and “Thesearenottheclassicalonesfrom of total real estate transaction 4967, [email protected], or your lines, colossal shopping centres and often occupier — hiatus,” says Dam- the UK or the US but, for example, volumes in the region. Retail usual FT representative. office atriums of Warsaw, Budapest, ian Harrington, head of European investors from South Africa,” Mr 0 accounted for the largest chunk of PragueandBratislava. research at property advisers Colliers Vejdovskyadds(seePage6). industry dealmaking in the south- All editorial content in this report is Including the Balkans and other International. Investment may slow The trend of offshoring, in which east Europe group of Croatia, Serbia, produced by the FT. Our advertisers 2012 2013 2014 2015* south-east European countries, down “but significant transactions western companies such as banks Bulgaria and Slovenia, according to have no influence over or prior sight €9.1bn flowed into the region’s mar- keeponhappening,especiallywhena and technology firms use offices in * Preliminary figures Source: JLL, 2015 JLLresearch. of the articles. kets last year, the third highest widermarketisbuoyant.” annual amount on record. Projects in Further afield, the lack of resolu- the pipeline and estimates of deal- tion to the military stand-off in east- making suggest 2016 will be just as ern Ukraine and political turmoil in active. Kiev have kept most investors away “Investor interest in the CEE real from that country. Before Russia estate market has been growing over annexed Crimea in 2014, many had the past few years — and that trend is hoped Ukraine would become a prof- continuing,”says Richard Wilkinson, itable market, on a par with Poland a chief executive of Erste Group decadeago(seePage6). Immorent, the real estate financing Other countries are showing strong arm of Vienna-based Erste Group. growth. “Investors from Germany, the UK A surge in deals at the end of 2015 and North America are focusing in saw the Czech Republic, the region’s particular on prime real estate and theofficeandlogisticssegments,with healthy inflows spread across most of theregion’smarkets.” ‘Political risk cannot be Some countries appeal to short- ignored and the term investors. However there is a growing interest in longer-term immediate impact is projects as the region’sproperty mar- almost always one of kets mature and the quality of devel- opmentsincrease. investor — and often “There is much more focus now on occupier — hiatus’ theintrinsicvalueofrealestate,”says James Chapman, head of capital mar- ketsforcentralEuropeatCushman& second-largest market, record trans- Wakefield. “In CEE, we have reached actions of €2.65bn last year. The fig- the point in the development cycle ure is 65 per cent higher than that of where . you can see defined loca- 2014 and just shy of the pre-crisis tions where the best asset classes are record. performingandstandout.” In Hungary, where investors are He adds: “That is where the core regaining confidence despite a series money is coming in, which values of business unfriendly policies since long-termgrowth.” Viktor Orban returned as prime min- The change in government in Ups and downs: Moves by the ultraconservative Law politicalstrifewhenitcomestodraw- ister in 2010, the market is bubbling Poland and subsequent fall in inves- shoppers flock and Justice party’s new government, ing up future plans, however, and again. Commercial deals were up 62 tor confidence over political stability, to Warsaw’s including changes to the workings of Poland’sgrowingpotentialmarksitas per cent last year and total market top the list of immediate concerns for new malls the top court which critics say threat- still one of the most attractive desti- size of €790m was the highest since manypropertyspecialists.Thisraises Bloomberg ens its independence from the execu- nationsforinvestmentinEurope. beforethefinancialcrisisof2008. eyebrowsacrosstheindustrybecause tive, have caused a constitutional cri- Increased risk in the region was Investment flows remain strong in ofthePolishmarket’simportance. sis, international condemnation and among the hot topics at Mipim, the the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania Poland takes the lion’s share of a lowering of Poland’s investment propertyindustryinternationaltrade and Estonia. Lithuania adopted the property investment into central and creditrating(seestory,Page5). fair, which took place in Cannes last euro last year, which boosted its eastern Europe. Anyone active in the The property industry typically month.Themessagefromdevelopers appeal, particularly to commercial regionislikelytohaveintereststhere. considers more than just short-term and sales representatives to nervous developers keen to enhance the 4 | FTReports FINANCIAL TIMES Tuesday 12 April 2016 FINANCIAL TIMES Tuesday 12 April 2016 FTReports | 5 Central & Eastern Europe Property Central & Eastern Europe Property Investors worry over political direction The ruling moreencouragementinstead. Poland Foreign investors provided party has startled the overwhelming majority of capital that led investment in those who have Poland’s property market to become used to hit €4.1bn in 2015, according toJLL. stability, reports This was the highest volume Henry Foy since 2006, with commercial and industrial markets