Feasibility Analysis and evaluation of the viability of multimodal corridor of the approved Action "Sea2Sea" under the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) 2nd Deliverable - D2 Design of the Sea2Sea Corridor December 2014 ADK | AKKT | EVIAM | Milionis-Iliopoulou ΝΙΚΟΛΑΟΣ ΜΗΛΙΩΝΗΣ - ΚΩΣΤΟΥΛΑ ΗΛΙΟΠΟΥΛΟΥ *The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Feasibility Analysis and evaluation of the viability of multimodal corridor of the approved Action "Sea2Sea" under the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) - Deliverable D2 - Design of the Corridor TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Identification of necessary improvements ......................................................................................... 11 1.1 Identification of necessary improvements along the corridor ................................................... 11 1.1.1 Key components of the approach for planning the Sea2Sea corridor ................................ 11 1.2 Concept of improvement projects synthesis and action plan .................................................... 16 1.2.1 Stage 1 of Aegean-Black Sea2Sea corridor implementation .............................................. 16 1.2.2 Stage 2 of Aegean-Black Sea2Sea corridor implementation .............................................. 19 1.2.3 Stage 3 of Aegean-Black Sea2Sea corridor implementation .............................................. 20 1.2.4 Stage 4 of Aegean-Black Sea2Sea corridor implementation .............................................. 20 1.2.5 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 22 1.3 Environmental consideration ...................................................................................................... 24 1.3.1 General information - Greece ............................................................................................ 24 1.3.2 Section 1 - Kavala Alexandroupolis - Protected Areas along the studied corridor and its improvements ..................................................................................................................................... 26 1.3.3 Section 2 - Alexandroupolis - Ormenio - Protected Areas along the studied corridor and its improvements ..................................................................................................................................... 37 1.3.4 Summary data - conclusions ............................................................................................... 45 1.3.5 General information - Bulgaria ........................................................................................... 47 1.3.6 Section 1 - Svilengrad - Provdiv Protected Areas along the studied corridor and its improvements ..................................................................................................................................... 50 1.3.7 Section 2 - Provdiv - Stara Zagora - Protected Areas along the studied corridor and its improvements ..................................................................................................................................... 56 1.3.8 Section 3 - Stara Zagora - Burgas- Protected Area along the studied corridor and its improvements ..................................................................................................................................... 58 1.3.9 Section 4 - Stara Zagora - Varna Protected Areas along the studied corridor and that improvements ..................................................................................................................................... 64 1.3.10 Section 5 - Gorna Orjahovica - Ruse Protected Areas along the studied corridor and its improvements ..................................................................................................................................... 78 1.3.11 Section 6 - Karnobat - Sindel - Protected Areas along the studied corridor and its improvements ..................................................................................................................................... 79 1.3.12 Summary data - conclusions ............................................................................................... 83 ΑDΚ | AKKT | ΕVΙΑΜ | Millionis-Iliopouou 2 Feasibility Analysis and evaluation of the viability of multimodal corridor of the approved Action "Sea2Sea" under the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) - Deliverable D2 - Design of the Corridor 2 Formulation of improvement project mix and action plan ................................................................ 88 2.1 Administrative and preparatory actions ..................................................................................... 88 2.2 Scheduling of interventions ........................................................................................................ 90 2.2.1 Stage 1 - Improvement of the Alexandroupolis – Ormenio railway line ............................ 91 2.2.2 Stage 1 - Implementation of ERTMS ................................................................................... 96 2.2.3 Stage 1 - Implementation of SEA2SEA Traffic Control Center .......................................... 100 2.2.4 Stage 2 - Rehabilitation of the Plovdiv – Burgas railway line ............................................ 103 2.2.5 Stage 3 – Doubling and electrification of the Karnobat – Sindel railway line ................... 107 2.2.6 Stage 4 – Rail connection of the new port of Kavala ........................................................ 110 2.2.7 Stage 4 – Restoration of design parameters of the Ruse-Varna railway line ................... 114 2.2.8 Stage 4 – Improvement of the Ruse – Stara Zagora rail line............................................. 117 2.2.9 Stage 4 – Ruse Regional Intermodal Terminal .................................................................. 121 2.3 Comments and conclusions ...................................................................................................... 123 3 Assessment of the corridor's future competitiveness and freight flows .......................................... 125 3.1 Environmental Competitiveness Analysis ................................................................................. 125 3.1.1 General .............................................................................................................................. 125 3.1.2 Examined Scenarios .......................................................................................................... 125 3.1.3 Areas of protection for Scenario A .................................................................................... 127 3.1.4 Areas of protection for Scenario B .................................................................................... 142 3.1.5 Results comparison ........................................................................................................... 160 3.2 Flows Forecast........................................................................................................................... 165 3.2.1 The Model ......................................................................................................................... 165 3.2.2 The rail network ................................................................................................................ 173 3.2.3 The Shipping Lines ............................................................................................................. 173 3.2.4 Corridor forecasts ............................................................................................................. 179 3.2.5 The corridor as a whole..................................................................................................... 180 3.3 Economic Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 182 3.3.1 General .............................................................................................................................. 182 3.3.2 Investment costs ............................................................................................................... 182 ΑDΚ | AKKT | ΕVΙΑΜ | Millionis-Iliopouou 3 Feasibility Analysis and evaluation of the viability of multimodal corridor of the approved Action "Sea2Sea" under the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) - Deliverable D2 - Design of the Corridor 3.3.3 Forecast traffic .................................................................................................................. 183 3.3.4 Estimated revenue ............................................................................................................ 184 3.3.5 Forecast expenditures ....................................................................................................... 184 3.3.6 Estimated net revenue ...................................................................................................... 186 3.3.7 Forecast cash flows ........................................................................................................... 187 3.3.8 Additional Scenarios ......................................................................................................... 190 4 Preliminary assessment of the socioeconomic impact of the Corridor ............................................ 208 4.1 Preliminary assessment and evaluation