AFRICI\. ISSN 0256-2804 ) 0 1 0 2 d e t a d ( r e h s i l b u P e h t y b vol d e t n a r g e c n e c 20 i l r e d n u y a 0 w e t no3° a G t e n i b a S y b d e c 1990 u d Reg o r p . No e R . 61 / 00002108 Africa Insight is an independent publication which Annual subscription endeavours to promote insight into the process of Rand Monetary Area R 40,00 change and development in Africa. Elsewhere R 40,00 Airmail rates on application The Institute does not necessarily subscribe to the opinions of contributors. Each volume corresponds with a calendar year and consists of four numbers. © Copyright reserved. The AFRICA INSTITUTE OF SOUTH AFRICA renders a research and information service. It was Contributions and subscriptions should be sent to: founded in 1960 by the South African universities and The Editor the Suid-Afrikaanse Akademie vir Wetenskap en Kuns POBox 630 as a central and academically independent African PRETORIA 0001 studies centre. 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No. 61/00002108 an independent publication which promotes insight into the process of change in Africa. R11,30 (R10,OO + R1,30). Cover by William Steyn Comment Post-apartheid South Africa and Africa - Dr Erich Leistner 138 Political economy The Comorian comitragedy: Final curtain on Abdallahism? - Dr Denis Venter 141 Development .. Political transition, development and the role of civil society - Mark Swilling 151 Language ) 0 1 Namibia's new language policy - Prof August D de V Cluver 161 0 2 d e - t Elections a d ( The implementation of the 1988/89 district assembly (local government) r e elections in Ghana - Joseph R A Ayee 169 h s i l b u Foreign policy P e h Changing the guard: South African foreign policy into the 1990s - Dr Greg Mills and Dr Simon Baynham 176 t y b d e Nationalization t n a Nationalization: Lessons from Southern Africa - Sam Kongwa 189 r g Adequate economic prosperity as a prerequisite for political stability in a post-apartheid South Africa: e c The relevance of the nationalization/privatization debate - Ronnie M J van Wyk 194 n e c i l r e Africa monitor d n - Jenny Macgregor 197 u y a w e t a G t e n i b a S y b d e c u ... d o r p e R Comment ___________________________________________________________________________________ .. Post-apartheid South Africa and Africa Dr Erich Leistner, Director of the Africa Institute, looks at the reasons why South Africa and Southern Africa should continue to occupy a place in the thoughts of the leaders of the industrialized nations. Towards the end of October 1990, a Australia and New Zealand racial vio­ senior German politicians of their fear prominent British political scientist, Dr lence between the majorities of their that within, say, ten years, millions of Christopher Coker, delivered a paper at citizens and people of colour is not hungry and destitute Africans might the Africa Institute's Conference on unfamiliar. Confrontations between seek refuge in Western Europe, not to the subject, "Southern Africa towards Germans and Turkish Gastarbeiter fall mention the prospect of a massive the year 2000." In it he expressed the into a similar pattern. inflow of Soviet citizens should the .. view that for the West, "Southern These tensions and conflicts are USSR succumb to anarchy. Africa's meaning largely derives from symptoms of "North-South" problems. Not all European leaders anticipate South) Africa," and that once apartheid Amid the euphoria over the ending of such a gloomy future, but universal dis­ 0 has1 been dismantled, "Southern Africa the Cold War between the West and the illusionment and pessimism concerning 0 2 will cease to be meaningful.'" Soviet bloc, the ominous income and developments in Africa prevail in d e This seems to me to be overstating welfare gap between the industrialized Europe and in other industrial coun­ t - thea case: notwithstanding the demise of "North" and the predominantly poor tries. African leaders, in tum, are d ( apartheid, there is every likelihood that "South" had faded temporarily from apprehensive that much Western aid, r thee world will be less and less able to Western consciousness. Iraq's occupa­ virtually the only aid they can hope for, h ignores the consequences of worsening tion of Kuwait and the concomitant will increasingly be diverted to Eastern i l povertyb and frustration in Africa, much manifestations of militant Islamic fun­ Europe. More and more the flow of ofu Asia and elsewhere. As a microcosm damentalism throughout the Arab funds to Africa, currently about $10 P ofe the world at large, South Africa mir­ world have since shattered the illusion billion a year, will be subject to condi­ h rorst the so-called "North-South" situa­ of global harmony and peace. Earlier tions regarding the use of funds, the tion:y the vast discrepancies of wealth fears of a confrontation between the recipients' economic policies and their b andd privilege largely along racial and few rich countries of the "North" and observance of human rights and demo­ e ethnict lines, and the tensions arising the many poor of the "South" have cratic practices. n froma these divisions. South Africa, been suddenly revived. The many assurances of European r g with its institutionalized racial discrim­ At present such fears are particularly leaders, notably those of countries such e ination,c offered itself as a symbol (and acute in Germany, which, in recent as France, Britain and Germany, that n scapegoat)e for these unresolved global years, apart from Turkish and other Europe has a special responsibility c i issues.l These issues will not vanish guest-workers, has had to accommodate towards Africa, should not be dis­ withr the symbol. hundreds of thousands of ethnic missed as mere rhetoric, however, even e d Those predicting the imminent Germans from the Soviet Union and though that sense of responsibility sure­ n "marginalization"u of South and East European countries, as well as vast ly is not a foremost national priority. Southerny Africa appear to overlook that numbers of asylum-seekers from Over the past few years Western a somew countries' condemnation of Eastern Europe, Africa and Asia, bring­ thinking on Southern Africa and South e apartheidt was clearly influenced by ing the total of foreigners there to at Africa's role in the region has reflected a concernG about the potential impact that least 4,63 million. Apart from causing a growing awareness that the whole of t raciale strife in South Africa might have serious administrative and psychologi­ Southern Africa is bound to follow the n oni their own populations. US govern­ cal problems, this development is same economic and political path as the b menta spokesmen have explicitly con­ increasingly viewed in tandem with rest of the continent, unless a strong S firmed this. For the USA, Britain, black Africa's apparently unstoppable and expanding South African economy y b France, the Netherlands, Sweden, slide into chaos. I recently learned from helps to stimulate and sustain the d e c u d .. 138o Africa Insight, vol 20, no 3, 1990 r p e R - ________________________________________________________________________________ Comment region. Until recently, any South fairly substantial traditional interests - countries combined, excluding Tanzania African involvement in the provision of mainly commercial but also political­ - there would be a real risk that it materials, finance or manpower in in South Africa and other countries of would pursue its own national interest at regional projects financed by the the region, of Britain, Germany and the expense of the weaker countries, European Community, the World Bank Portugal (Italy is a newcomer), there is thereby creating ill will and undermining and various other agencies was assidu­ no obvious reason why these countries the objectives of regional co-operation.