October 2009 The shadow of Vietnam over Kabul Astri Suhrke Summary The present controversy over the elections in corrupt but weak state and had started to talk about nego- Afghanistan recalls the dilemmas Washington faced tiating with the enemy. He also had a corrupt and obsti- in Vietnam when Ngo Dinh Diem, whom the Ameri- QDWHEURWKHUZKRH[HUWHGFRQVLGHUDEOHLQÀXHQFHRQKLP cans had helped establish as president, no longer ,Q2FWREHU&DERW/RGJHLQIRUPHGWKH9LHWQDPHVH appeared as a reliable and effective partner. They general Duong Van Minh that Diem was no longer de- then decided to get rid of Diem, but this merely led sired as president. This led to a military coup in which to a period of greater instability and eventual defeat. Diem was shot and thrown into the back of an army ve- KLFOH/DWHU/RGJHVDLGWKHLQWHQWLRQZDVQRWWRNLOO'LHP He was only to be deposed because the country needed a new president. The ghost of Vietnam keeps appearing in the debate over NATO’s role in Afghanistan. It also haunts the back- Rigid fronts ground of Richard Holbrooke, President Obama’s special It is hardly necessary to remind Holbrooke of the paral- representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, for Hol- lels with present strife around Hamid Karzai. Also the brooke began his career in the State Department as an Afghan president is accused of corruption and of being aid-worker in South Vietnam in 1963. uncooperative, and he presided over the rigged elections in September. Karzai has a problem brother, Ahmed Wali $VD\RXQJDPELWLRXVRI¿FLDO+ROEURRNHKHOSHGGHYHO- Karzai, who is said to be deeply involved in the narcotics op the ”hearts and minds” strategy in Vietnam, writes WUDGH/LNH'LHP.DU]DLRULJLQDOO\KDGWKHGHFLVLYHVXS- Noref Article his former boss, Rufus Phillips, in his recently pub- port of the Americans, who helped install him after 2001 lished book Why Vietnam Matters. Development in the in the expectation that he would be a nationally unifying villages rather than raw military power was to win the ¿JXUH SHRSOH¶VFRQ¿GHQFHLQWKHEDWWOHDJDLQVWWKH&RPPXQLVWV Holbrooke was in the Mekong delta when the US ambas- Relations cool VDGRU+HQU\&DERW/RGJHGHFLGHGLWZDVWLPHWRUHPRYH $WWKDWWLPHWKH81VSHFLDOUHSUHVHQWDWLYH/DNKGDU%UD- the South Vietnamese president, Ngo Dinh Diem. Diem himi and the Americans cooperated in making Karzai the had become uncooperative and authoritarian, he led a leader of the transitional government, which formally was Astri Suhrke LVDVHQLRUUHVHDUFKHUDW&KU0LFKHOVHQ,QVWLWXWH%HUJHQ6KHLVDSROLWLFDOVFLHQWLVWZLWKEURDG experience in academic and applied research. She has worked on the social, political and humanitarian con- VHTXHQFHVRIYLROHQWFRQÀLFWDQGVWUDWHJLHVRIUHVSRQVH0RUHUHFHQWO\VKHKDVIRFXVHGRQWKHSROLWLFVRIKX- manitarian policies in the UN system, concepts of human security and peacebuilding. She is currently working on strategies of post-war reconstruction and statebuilding, with particular reference to Afghanistan. Her most recent books (co-authored) are Roads to Reconciliation (2005), Eroding Local Capacity. International Humani- tarian Action in Africa(2003), and The Path of a Genocide. The Rwanda Crisis from Uganda to Zaire (1999). 7KHFXUUHQWDUWLFOHRULJLQDOO\DSSHDUHGDVµ(LGHRJ+ROEURRNHLVN\JJHQIUD9LHWQDP¶LQ%HUJHQV7LGHQGH Translated from Norwegian by John Meyrick. October 2009 Astri Suhrke: The shadow of Vietnam over Kabul Abortive efforts HOHFWHGE\WKHWUDGLWLRQDO$IJKDQDVVHPEO\ OR\DMLUJD LQ The”minimalists” in Washington, as they are called, note 2002. The US special representative, the Afghan-Ameri- that the military escalation and foreign-supported state- can Zalmay Khalilzad, made it clear that neither the king, building in Afghanistan so far have not attained the de- Zahir Shah, nor any member of his fraction were accept- sired results. On the contrary, the deepening foreign pres- DEOHFDQGLGDWHV:LWKVXSSRUWIURP%UDKLPL.KDOLO]DG ence has created a bigger and tougher insurgency, has cost announced that the king had withdrawn his candidacy, billions of dollars and many American lives (as well as the even before the king himself had the opportunity to do so. lives of others). It has led to a proliferation of unclear aims, contributed to widespread corruption and a president the Karzai was clearly the Americans’ candidate in the 2004 Americans can no longer control. The time has therefore presidential election. Washington allocated an extra bil- come to use “smart power”, the critics say. The Americans lion dollars ahead of the election to show that Karzai can use rockets and special forces against a smaller group could open the aid faucet in the service of reconstruction of international terrorists now on the Pakistani side of the and peace-building. In the months prior to the election border. The Taliban insurgency, state-building and “win- school buildings shot up like toadstools, roads were tar- ning hearts and minds” are matters the Afghans them- macked and wells drilled. Much of it was done too fast. selves must deal with. International aid can make a con- School roofs collapsed and those that were left standing tribution but not govern this process. That is simply too often lacked both teachers and textbooks. complicated. This was the beginning of the end of the cooperation be- :HOONQRZQ ¿JXUHV DPRQJ WKH PLQLPDOLVWV DUH SROLWL- WZHHQ.DU]DLDQG:DVKLQJWRQ/LNH'LHP.DU]DLVWDUWHG cians and intellectuals whose views were shaped by the to criticise his powerful benefactors. He disagreed with Vietnam War. Senator John Kerry – who is rapidly mov- Washington’s military strategy (too many civilian casual- ing in the minimalist direction – fought there as a young ties) and state-building strategy (too much interference). soldier, afterwards becoming a strong critic of the war. Not surprisingly, he began to build another power base /HVOLH*HOEDZHOONQRZQFRPPHQWDWRUDGYLVRUMRXUQDO- founded on local alliances and tribal politics. This cre- LVWDQGIRUDORQJWLPHKHDGRIWKHLQÀXHQWLDO&RXQFLORQ ated even greater distance in the relationship, and when Foreign Relations, worked in the Pentagon under Robert Obama became president, things went from bad to worse. McNamara’s management of the war in Vietnam and de- veloped a certain scepticism towards intervention as an Opposing strategies instrument of power. An increasing number of Democrat- What lessons does Holbrooke draw from the US experi- ic senators are looking towards the congressional elec- ences with Diem now that he has a stubborn President tions next year and realize that the shadow of Vietnam Karzai to deal with? The time for military coups and as- grows ever longer over the debate on the war in Afghani- sassinating unpopular clients has probably passed. In- VWDQ9LFH3UHVLGHQW-RH%LGHQDVPDGHFOHDUKHIDYRXUV stead accusations of election rigging are used to eliminate a minimalist role. On the right he has the support from or at any rate marginalise Karzai. Holbrooke is said to relatively moderate conservatives such as the columnist SUHIHUDQHZURXQGRIHOHFWLRQV+LVFROOHDJXH3HWHU*DO- *HRUJH):LOO Noref Article braith, who has worked closely with Holbrooke and was SODFHGE\KLPLQWKH81.DEXORI¿FHXQGHU.DL(LGHKDV Bad experiences argued e that all election fraud should be exposed even if, as expected, this would mean that Karzai’s days in the 2QWKHRWKHUVLGHDUH*HQHUDO0F&KU\VWDODPRQJRWKHUV presidential palace are numbered. who argue for a greater and wider engagement with more foreign troops, a broad “hearts and minds” strategy and In the State Department, on the other hand, there is more more international support to ensure a stronger Afghan doubt and more support for Kai Eide’s line that more and state and better governance. direct intervention can create bigger problems. The con- sequence of removing Diem in 1963 was indeed less sta- Holbrooke himself is not saying much right now. He is bility. Military coup followed military coup to produce known to be an activist and a directive leader. On the sustained chaos. The idea that direct intervention is dif- other hand, he has lived through the experiences of failed ¿FXOWRIWHQKDVXQLQWHQGHGFRQVHTXHQFHVDQGIUHTXHQWO\ DWWHPSWVWRGRMXVWWKDWLQ9LHWQDP:KHQ2EDPDSXWKLP delegitimises the new regime, is now gaining ground in in charge of Afghanistan-Pakistan, he e-mailed his old established political circles in Washington. boss from the Vietnam period: ”Afghanistan is tougher than Vietnam”. October 2009.