AARRRKKKAAANNNSSSAAASSS 22002200 AA rreeppoorrtt oonn tthhee cchhaannggiinngg ddeemmooggrraapphhiiccss aanndd rreellaatteedd cchhaalllleennggeess ffaacciinngg AArrkkaannssaass’’ ssttaattee ggoovveerrnnmmeenntt iinn 22002200.. Produced in 2007 for Senator Shane Broadway and the 86th General Assembly of the State of Arkansas Arkansas 2020 FOREWORD, ARKANSAS 2020 To Governor Mike Beebe, Senate and House Members of the 86th General Assembly, and Concerned Citizens: The following Arkansas 2020 report provides a comprehensive analysis of the anticipated demographics changes and related challenges that Arkansas’ state government will face in 2020. I would like to express my sincere appreciation to the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, University of Arkansas at Little Rock, University of Arkansas-Fayetteville, Arkansas Tech University, and Arkansas State University who encouraged their faculty to assist in organizing and writing this comprehensive report. The report’s breadth and quality has exceeded my expectations. I would like to particularly thank Dr. Ty Borders, Associate Professor, UAMS College of Public Health, for coordinating this effort. It is critical that our state consider the anticipated challenges highlighted in the Arkansas 2020 report before we are in the midst of them. I encourage our state government to use the findings contained in the report to more effectively and efficiently plan and allocate resources to meet the future needs of Arkansans. Shane Broadway State Senator, District 22 1 Arkansas 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS FACULTY COORDINATORS, ARKANSAS 2020...................................................................................10 OTHER MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS ........................................................................................................12 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY, ARKANSAS 2020.........................................................................13 CHAPTER 1. THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF ARKANSAS................................................15 INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................................15 HISTORIC AND PROJECTED POPULATION TRENDS OF ARKANSAS..............................................15 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................................................27 CHAPTER 2. HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES CONCERNS FOR 2020......................................29 INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................29 PART A. HOW HEALTHY WILL ARKANSAS BE IN 2020?...............................................................31 ESTIMATES OF CHRONIC DISEASE AND RISKY BEHAVIORS .........................................................31 OVERVIEW OF CHRONIC DISEASE AND RISKY BEHAVIOR ESTIMATES .....................................31 METHODS ....................................................................................................................................................31 FINDINGS .....................................................................................................................................................32 PART B. IMPLICATIONS OF CHRONIC DISEASE AND RISKY BEHAVIORS ESTIMATES FOR THE CENTER FOR HEALTH ADVANCEMENT / DIVISION OF HEALTH..........................39 OVERVIEW OF CENTER’S MISSION .......................................................................................................39 POPULATION SUBGROUPS SERVED......................................................................................................39 MAJOR PROGRAMS AND SERVICES......................................................................................................39 PRIORITY CONCERNS FOR 2020 .............................................................................................................40 STRATEGIES FOR 2020 ..............................................................................................................................41 RESOURCES REQUIRED FOR 2020..........................................................................................................41 PART C. ESTIMATES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE .............................................................................43 OVERVIEW OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE ESTIMATES............................................................................43 METHODS ....................................................................................................................................................43 FINDINGS .....................................................................................................................................................43 PART D. IMPLICATIONS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE CHANGES FOR THE CENTER FOR HEALTH PROTECTION / DIVISION OF HEALTH.............................................................................49 OVERVIEW OF THE CENTER FOR HEALTH PROTECTION................................................................49 THE INFECTIOUS DISEASE BRANCH.....................................................................................................49 PART E. OTHER IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION CHANGES FOR THE CENTER FOR HEALTH PROTECTION / DIVISION OF HEALTH.............................................................................52 PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE BRANCH..........................................................................................52 HEALTH SYSTEMS LICENSING/REGULATION BRANCH...................................................................52 PART F. IMPLICATIONS OF ARKANSAS’ CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS FOR THE DIVISION OF CHILDREN AND FAMILY SERVICES.........................................................................54 MISSION AND PROFILE.............................................................................................................................54 PRIORITY CONCERNS FOR 2020 .............................................................................................................54 STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS ISSUES AND CONCERNS ........................................................................55 PART G. IMPLICATIONS OF ARKANSAS’ CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS FOR THE DIVISION OF YOUTH SERVICES ..........................................................................................................56 MISSION AND PROFILE.............................................................................................................................56 2 Arkansas 2020 MAJOR ISSUES AND CONCERNS FOR DYS ..........................................................................................56 STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS PRIORITY ISSUES AND CONCERNS.....................................................57 PART H. IMPLICATIONS OF ARKANSAS’ CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS FOR THE DIVISION OF DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES SERVICES ........................................................58 MISSION AND PROFILE.............................................................................................................................58 MAJOR ISSUES AND CONCERNS FOR DDS ..........................................................................................59 STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS PRIORITY ISSUES AND CONCERNS.....................................................61 PART I. HUMAN SERVICES NEEDS FOR OLDER ARKANSANS IN 2020 .....................................64 REVIEW OF PROJECTED INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF OLDER ARKANSANS.......................64 PART J. IMPLICATIONS OF ARKANSAS’ CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS FOR THE DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES ......................................................................................................68 MISSION AND PROFILE.............................................................................................................................68 PRIORITY CONCERNS FOR 2020 .............................................................................................................70 STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS MAJOR ISSUES AND CONCERNS..........................................................71 PART K. IMPLICATIONS OF ARKANSAS’ CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS FOR DIVISION OF VOLUNTEERISM.......................................................................................................................................76 MISSION AND PROFILE.............................................................................................................................76 MAJOR ISSUES AND CONCERNS FOR DIVISION OF VOLUNTEERISM...........................................77 STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS MAJOR ISSUES AND CONCERNS..........................................................77 PART L. IMPLICATIONS OF ARKANSAS’ CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS FOR THE DIVISION OF COUNTY OPERATIONS .................................................................................................79 MISSION AND PROFILE.............................................................................................................................79 MAJOR ISSUES AND CONCERNS ............................................................................................................79 STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS MAJOR ISSUES AND CONCERNS..........................................................80 DIVISION’S CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES............................................81 CHAPTER 3. RESOURCES.......................................................................................................................82