Center for Strategic and International Studies Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy 1800 K Street, N.W. • Suite 400 • Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1 (202) 775-3270 • Fax: 1 (202) 457-8746 Web: http://webmail.csis.org/burke Iraq, the Surge, Partition, and the War: Public Opinion by City and Region Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Updated: October 19, 2007 Cordesman: Iraqi Attitudes by City and Region 10/19/07 Page 2 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 SETTING THE STAGE: THE OVERALL TRENDS IN IRAQI PUBLIC OPINION............................................................................................................................................ 5 DECLINING EXPECTATIONS........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 BUT ACONTINUING HOPE FOR UNITY AND THE NATION.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Table One ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Declining Expectations, But Still A Desire For Unity (In Percent) .......................................................................................................................................................................6 Figure One: Iraqi Expectations: 2005-2007...........................................................................................................................................................................................................7 LIVING UNDER CONSTANT THREAT FROM MANY KINDS OF VIOLENCE ....................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Iraqi Perceptions of Different Types of Violence .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Ongoing Sectarian and Ethnic Cleansing ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Perceptions of Unnecessary Violence ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Table Two ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................10 Kinds of Violence Iraqis Reported as Occurring Nearby, and Perceptions of Unnecessary Violence.................................................................................................................10 IRAQI VIEWS OF THE UNITED STATES ROLE IN IRAQ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Broad National Trends in Perceptions of the US Role in Iraq.............................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Iraqis Who Think It is Acceptable to Attack US Forces ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 12 Iraqi Reactions to the US “Surge”........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12 IRAQI VIEWS OF THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Figure Two: Iraqi View of US Role and Presence...............................................................................................................................................................................................14 Figure Three: The Presence of US Forces and their Effect on the Security Situation .........................................................................................................................................15 Figure Four: The Acceptability of Attacks on Coalition Forces..........................................................................................................................................................................16 Figure Five: Impact of US Surge: Perceptions of Change in the Security Situation............................................................................................................................................17 in the 6 Months Prior to August, 2007.................................................................................................................................................................................................................17 Figure Six: Impact of the Surge: Perceptions of Change in the Security Situation..............................................................................................................................................18 in the 6 Months Prior to August, 2007 by Sect and Ethnic Group.......................................................................................................................................................................18 Figure Seven: Iraqi Popular Approval of the Iraqi Government..........................................................................................................................................................................19 SOURCE: ABC NEWS POLLING UNIT, BASED ON ABC/BBC/NHK POLL “IRAQ, WHERE THINGS STAND, AUGUST, 2007. REGIONAL, SECTARIAN, ETHNIC, AND TRIBAL DIVISIONS IN IRAQ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 REGIONAL, SECTARIAN, ETHNIC, AND TRIBAL DIVISIONS IN IRAQ ...................................................................................................................................................... 20 Table Three .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................21 If asked your religion, what do you prefer the answer to be?..............................................................................................................................................................................21 Figure Eight: Iraq by Governorate and Summary Demographics........................................................................................................................................................................23 Figure Nine: Iraq’s Ethnic and Sectarian Character: CIA Estimate.....................................................................................................................................................................24 Cordesman: Iraqi Attitudes by City and Region 10/19/07 Page 3 LOOKING AT IRAQI DIVISIONS BY CITY AND GOVERNORATE: IRAQI PERCEPTIONS OF VIOLENCE........................................................................................ 25 Figure Ten: Percent of Iraqis rating key aspects of personal security as “bad” – ABC Poll (August 2007)........................................................................................................27 Figure Eleven: Percent of Iraqis Rating Security Situation as ‘Bad’ in Own Neighborhoods March and August 2007– ABC Poll (August 2007)* .........................................28 Figure Twelve: What Kinds of Violence have occurred nearby? – ABC Poll (August 2007).............................................................................................................................29 Figure Thirteen: What is the single biggest problem facing your life these days? ABC Poll (August 2007) .....................................................................................................30 LOOKING AT IRAQI DIVISIONS BY CITY AND GOVERNORATE: IRAQI PERCEPTIONS OF CIVIL WAR....................................................................................... 31 Figure Fourteen: Has the Separating of People Been Happening In Your Mahallah or Not? Has this been mainly