UNDP/GEF/ICI Project BIodivErsIty CoNsErvatIoN in thE RussIaN PortIoN oF thE altaI-sayaN ECoregioN Assessment Report: Climate change and its impact on ecosystems, population and economy of the Russian portion of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion WWF russia Moscow • 2011 Authors: T. A. Blyakharchuk, D.Sc. (Biology), Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Siberian Branch CONTENTS of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) (Sub-section 5.1) I. V. Gerasimchuk, Ph.D. (Economics), Cyprus International Institute of Management (Section 6) 5 G. V. Gruza, D.Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), Prof., Institute of Global Climate and Ecology under RAS and the Introduction Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) (Section 2) I. E. Kamennova, WWF Russia (Section 4) 1. overview of the altai-sayan Ecoregion 12 A. O. Kokorin, Ph.D. (Physics and Mathematics), WWF Russia (Section 4) Ye. I. Parfenova, Ph.D. (Biology), Institute of Forest, RAS Siberian Branch (Subsections 3.1 & 5.1) 2. Climate Change in the russian Portion of the altai-sayan Ecoregion E. Ya. Rankova, D.Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), RAS&Roshydromet Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (E.ya. rankova and G.v. Gruza) 14 (Section 2) 2.1. Climate, Climate Change and Climatic variability (Fundamental Definitions) 14 V. A. Semenov, D.Sc. (Geography), Prof., All Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Center under Roshydromet (Subsections 3.2 & 5.2) 2.2. Climate Change observed During recent Decades 15 N. M. Tchebakova, D.Sc. (Biology), Institute of Forest, RAS Siberian Branch (Subsections 3.1 & 5.1) 2.2.1. Present climate of the ecoregion 15 Chief Editor: A. O. Kokorin 2.2.2. Recent climate change according to climate records 24 Reviewers: V. P. Galakhov, A. S. Ginzburg, L. M. Grigoryev, N. B. Yermakov, V. M. Katsov, A. F. Mandych, 2.3. Climate Change Estimates 30 A. A. Minin and L. V. Progunova 3. Climate Change Influence on Ecosystems and Water resources Kokorin, A. O. (ed.). 2011. Assessment Report: Climate change and its impact on ecosystems, of the altai-sayan Ecoregion 34 population and economy of the Russian portion of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion. Moscow: WWF 3.1. Ecosystems and species (N.M. tchebakova, ye.I. Parfenova and t.a. Blyakharchuk) 34 Russia. 152 pp. 3.1.1. Ground evidence and predictions of climate-caused vegetation changes 35 Report contains extensive information on an array of thematic issues: current and predicted climate change, 3.1.2. Potential changes of vegetation cover, mountain forest, and extent of major tree species prognosis for change in plant communities and water resources, and impact of climate change on population, under current and modeled climatic changes 38 economy and services provided by natural ecosystems in the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion (ASE). It is not easy to identify the human-induced changes in global climate and their regional peculiarities against the backgrounds of 3.1.3. Vegetation migration and adaptation mechanisms 41 natural climate variability and local impacts. This report will serve as a guide of future action aimed at studying 3.1.4. Major tree species extent changes 42 climate change impacts and planning adaptation measures when the adverse impacts of climate change reveal themselves and/or when sufficient data is collected and reliable regional models are developed to allow climate 3.1.5. Forest stand height increment in changing climate 44 change prediction. 3.1.6. Vegetation phytomass (carbon storage) change predicted under climate warming 44 Volunteer Editors of English text: Heather Clark and Sara Venkatachalam 3.2. Water resources (v.a. semenov) 47 3.2.1. General information about water bodies in the Russian portion of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion Cover photographs: Yelena Lebedeva / WWF Russia and research materials 47 Layout: A. Yu. Filippov, O. V. Shuleshko 3.2.2. Average annual river flow 51 3.2.3. Climate dependent variations of current glaciation 51 This publication has been prepared by WWF Russia under the project Promote adaptation of natural ecosystems to climate change in the specially protected nature areas in the Russian portion of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion. 3.2.4. Climate-dependent variations of river regimes and renewable water resources 55 Project Leaders: Dr. Daria L. Lugovaya and Dr. Elena G. Kulikova. 3.2.5. Variation of water quality of the rivers 64 The production of this publication has been supported by the UNDP/GEF/ICI Project on Biodiversity Conservation 3.2.6. Variations in lake water quality and ecological character 65 in the Russian Portion of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion. 4. Indicators of Climate Change Impact (a.o. Kokorin and I.E. Kamennova) 70 The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is the UN's global development network, an organization 4.1. summary of Key vulnerability Indicators and Corresponding adaptation action 70 advocating for change and connecting countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people build a better life. 5. assessment of terrestrial Ecosystem and Water resource vulnerability The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP, UN bodies and agencies, to Climate Change 73 and the authors’ employer organizations. 5.1 Ecosystems and species (N.M. tchebakova, ye.I. Parfenova and t.a. Blyakharchuk) 73 This publication is non-commercial and distributed free of charge. 5.1.1. Tundra-to-forest and forest-to-steppe change “hot spots” under future climate scenarios for the end of the 21st century 73 5.1.2. Negative influence of predicted climate changes on rare and endangered plant species © UNDP 2011 and communities 73 © WWF 2011 5.2. Water resources (v.a. semenov) 90 5.2.1. Comparative rating of water body types by their vulnerability to climate change INTRODUCTION and impact on local population and economy 90 5.2.2. Predicted changes in water resources and hydrological regime of rivers 91 5.2.3. Water-related dangerous events caused by climate change and their impact on the local population and economy 92 There is growing concern about the increasing anthropogenic effect on the earth’s climate system and 6. adaptation actions: observed and Forecasted Climate Change Impacts its impact on nature and human beings. The world community must take action to both investigate on Population, Economy and Ecosystem services (I.v. Gerasimchuk) 94 the problem and try to solve it. In recent years fundamental international (IPCC, 2007) and Russian (Assessment Report, 2008) works have been published, with detailed analyses of the reasons for and 6.1. social and Economic Choice of Climate Change adaptation Measures in the russian Context 94 scale of human impact on climate system as well as currently-observed effects and future forecasts. In late 2009, the Russian President signed the Climate Doctrine, and in April 2011, the government 6.2. Population and Economy of the altai-sayan Ecoregion under Climate Change 100 adopted its implementation plan. Analog and mathematical modeling of the earth’s climatic system is 6.2.1. Problems and prospects of adapting the ASE population to climate change 100 one of the eight key research trends in the complex plan for scientific research on weather and climate. 6.2.2. Problems and prospects of adapting the ASE economy to climate change 102 Development and deployment of atmospheric and ocean general circulation models is one of the top priorities for Russian science: it is the basis for the long-term climate forecast needed to make sound 6.3. Ecosystem services in the altai-sayan Ecoregion under Climate Change 104 economic decisions about adaptations to current and predicted weather and climate impact and the 6.3.1. Importance of ecosystem services for social and economic development mitigation of anthropogenic influence on climate (Climate Change, 2011). of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion 104 An analysis of climate change and its impact on the ecosystems, population and economy of the Altai- 6.3.2. Individual climate change impacts on ecosystem services in the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion 109 Sayan Ecoregion (ASE) is therefore timely. 6.3.2.3. Regulation of forest and steppe wildfires 112 The studies were undertaken as projects of the United Nations Development Programme and the 6.3.2.4. Provisioning of hunting, fishing and gathering products 115 Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, funded by the International Climate Initiative of the German Government. Germany is deeply concerned about climate change, 6.3.2.5. Provisioning of land and conditions for living and farming 116 caused mainly by the atmospheric emission of СО2 and other greenhouse gases primarily as a result of 6.3.2.7. Mitigation and protection from floods, earth flows, avalanches and mudflows 121 the use of fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil products. Man-made global climate change is often difficult 6.3.2.8. Cultural and amenities ecosystem services 122 to isolate from natural climatic variability and local human impact. However we must begin the process, 6.3.2.9. Maintaining natural habitats for biodiversity 125 and this report should be considered as a step in that direction in the ASE. Many studies have already been conducted in the ecoregion about the problems of climate change. Despite the large quantity of 6.4. opportunities and Measures for Climate Change adaptation in the altai-sayan Ecoregion 128 fundamental research on climate change and its impact on the region, there are relatively few action- 6.4.1. The nexus between the ASE economic development plans and the required oriented studies focused on specially protected nature areas in the context of climate change. Among them climate change adaptation measures 128 we note the participation of the Katunsky Biosphere Reserve in the UNESCO/MAB – GLOCHAMOST 6.4.2.